Multiple other power centres operate in the world are crystallising, and it’s time India stepped up its R&D efforts to keep pace
A command by the leader of the world’s most powerful nation to resume nuclear testing is not meant to offer reassurance. But that is precisely what US President Donald Trump’s instruction to his Department of War provides to anyone who took his reference to G2, prior to his summit with China, a little too literally.
There is no G2, not even under any mop of orange hair. Neither Trump nor Chinese President Xi Jinping is dreaming of dual hegemony of the world. Trump said that he is ordering the test because other countries are carrying out such tests.
What is G2?
Group of Two, or G2, is a hypothetical, but never actually formed, informal grouping of the US and China to manage global issues.
The sudden decision to go for nuclear testing comes in the wake of Russia announcing two new nuclear-powered weapon systems: a cruise missile and an underwater drone, each supposedly unstoppable and with a long range. Clearly, Russia is a strategic rival that matters enough for its advances in nuclear weapon technology to warrant the US carrying out nuclear tests of its own. Bye-bye, G2.
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Now, no country other than North Korea has carried out explosive testing of a nuclear device for decades. North Korea has been constantly testing missiles of assorted range capability, but the last time it carried out the testing of a nuclear warhead was in 2017. The tests that have taken place since are of delivery mechanisms for nuclear warheads, and computer simulations of nuclear explosions.
AI is better at it
The last explosive testing carried out by the US was in 1992. India and Pakistan carried out explosive tests in 1998.
The tests that have taken place since have been computer-simulated. With the arrival of high-powered artificial intelligence, which can be counted on to carry out far superior simulations than were possible in the past, there is no need to resume physical testing of a nuclear bomb.
Since Trump's desire to test came in the wake of Putin showing off Russia’s two new nuclear-powered delivery vehicles capable of bearing a nuclear payload, we can put the fear of G2 away for the time being.
As part of the conditions attached to the Indo-US nuclear deal sealed in 2008, India agreed to refrain from further explosive testing. That commitment remains active.
China last performed explosive testing in 1996. It signed the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) passed by the UN, unlike India, and has abided by its commitment, although CTBT has not come into force because key countries have not ratified it. China signed the treaty, but has not ratified it.
The US falls in the same category as China. Russia signed and ratified the treaty but subsequently withdrew its ratification.
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Trump has not clarified whether he wants the US Department of War to carry out explosive testing of a nuclear weapon or of a delivery vehicle. In either case, since his desire to test came in the wake of Vladimir Putin showing off Russia’s two new nuclear-powered delivery vehicles capable of bearing a nuclear payload, we can put the fear of G2 away for the time being.
China leads in use of technologies
That does not mean that India can afford to relax. While Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, its economy and scientific and technological research base lag China’s by far.
According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s critical technology tracker, China leads the world in 57 of the 64 technologies it tracks. The US leads in the remaining seven, and comes out in the second place in 50. India comes second in six of these, and South Korea takes the number two slot in one technology.
Russia does not figure in the top two in any area. However, it can draw on a tradition of engineering excellence that has enabled it to develop and build satellites, rockets, planes and assorted naval vehicles. Russia also has a formidable martial tradition that has allowed it to withstand long, harrowing sieges, such as those of Stalingrad and Leningrad during the Second World War, and emerge victorious.
Global power centres
Russia certainly counts as a global power centre. So does Europe, provided Europe would acknowledge the fact and shake off psychological dependence on the US — counting Britain as part of the continent for this strategic purpose, even if on matters gastronomical, English and Continental remain far apart.
While G2 is right now passing whimsy on Trump’s part, the lesson for India is that it has to get its house in order, spend less on freebies and more on R&D
In the East, two countries that have looked to the US to provide a strategic umbrella, Japan and South Korea, are being forced by Trump’s isolationism to cooperate, forgetting historical animosities and grievances. Trump said he would let South Korea build a nuclear submarine.
From Shinzo Abe’s time, influential sections of Japan’s elites have been keen to abandon its US-imposed pacifism and develop a strong military capability. Japan’s newly appointed Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae is a protégé of the late Abe, and is inclined to fortify Japan’s so-called self-defence forces.
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In Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the erstwhile Ottoman Empire has a new heir to imperial legacy. He is trying to project himself and Turkiye as leaders of the Turkic peoples, of not just Turkiye but also Central Asia. The Organisation of Turkic States, formally launched in 2009, has as its members Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan, with observer status for Hungary, Turkmenistan, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
Lesson for India
Saudi Arabia and the UAE would like to lead an Arab bloc of nations as well. A surprise entry in the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s critical technology tracker is Saudi Arabia, which figures among the top five nations in a couple of critical technologies. Saudi Arabia spends only 0.56 per cent of GDP on R&D, lower even than the UAE’s figure of 1.59 per cent of GDP. Evidently, Saudi Arabia is able to get a decent bang for its R&D buck.
India’s R&D outlay as a share of GDP stands at 0.64 per cent of GDP, way below China’s 2.56 per cent, the US’s 3.59 per cent and Japan’s 3.41 per cent, leave alone Israel’s 6.02 per cent and South Korea’s 5.21 per cent.
While G2 is right now passing whimsy on Trump’s part, the lesson for India is that it has to get its house in order, spend less on freebies and more on R&D, coherent industrial policy incentives, and functional infrastructure and governance, if it wants to preserve strategic autonomy.
India will also need to abandon its current political fashion of mixing up myth with history, and allow genuine pursuit of science to flourish, even if that means questioning fond notions of ancient science and technology glory of flying planes and organ transplants.
(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal.)
