Amidst the US military build-up, the doors of diplomacy are closing. Hence, all eyes will be on an indirect meeting between US and Iranian representatives scheduled for Thursday (February 26) in Geneva. Oman acts as the intermediary
US President Donald Trump is insisting that Iran should give up nuclear ambitions not only for now but for all time. In practical terms, this means that Iran should not enrich fissile material at all. He is conveying to the Iranian leadership that he is willing to use force to achieve his objective. To show that his intent is real, he has ordered major naval assets to take positions in the waters of the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea and elsewhere as well.
The US Navy has moved two aircraft carrier groups, among other assets, into this area. US aircraft have moved to US bases in the region. This means that the US forces can launch an attack on Iran immediately when ordered to do so. The situation has become dangerous. Consequently, the international community has become very worried. On February 23, the Indian embassy in Tehran advised all Indian nationals in Iran “to leave the country by available means of transport, including commercial flights”.
Also read: Trump warns of ‘bad things’ if Iran doesn’t make deal as US carrier nears Middle East
The fact is that the international community is wary of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran has consistently maintained for the past 25 years that it has no intention of making nuclear weapons. However, its assertions have not been fully believed. An important reason for this lack of credibility about Iran’s statements is that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had sometimes stated that Iranian actions in its nuclear enrichment facilities gave concern.
All eyes on US-Iran indirect meeting
Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The NPT allows the non-nuclear weapons states (NNWS) to enrich uranium so that it can be used in peaceful applications. The NNWS are subject to periodical IAEA inspections. It is here that the significance of the IAEA reports on a country’s enrichment record come into play. And, it is here, as noted, that Iran has fallen short.
Also read: India advises citizens to leave Iran as US attack fear grows
Amidst the US military build-up, the doors of diplomacy are closing. Hence, all eyes will be on an indirect meeting between US and Iranian representatives scheduled for Thursday (February 26) in Geneva. Oman acts as the intermediary. According to media reports, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian indicated that the US is giving ‘encouraging’ signals but that Iran is prepared for all eventualities. On the other hand, US special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, said on a TV show recorded on February 19 but telecast three days later that Trump was ‘curious’ why the Iranians had not capitulated in the face of the US pressure. Trump should know that Iran is an old and proud civilisation which does not easily succumb to foreign pressure. It has withstood US sanctions for decades.
The real question that Trump and his advisors must confront is what would be the endgame if they begin air action against Iran. They could order the extensive bombing of all the military bases and assets to degrade Iran’s war fighting abilities
Currently, US demands are regarding Iran’s nuclear programme. Witkoff has said that Iran has uranium enriched to 60 per cent level and it can make that into weapons grade material in a “week”. This is leading analysts to ask how effective the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fodow, Natanz and Ispahan in June 2025 were. Then the US had claimed that it had crippled the Iranian nuclear programme for years. Hence, it is legitimate to ask how effective those strikes were. Of course, enriching uranium to weapons grade does not mean that a nuclear weapon with a viable delivery system can be immediately made. That may take up to a few years.
Iran’s nuclear enrichment
Along with Iran’s nuclear capability, the US wants to impose very severe limitations on its missiles programme. At a minimum, it does not want Iran to have missiles which will be capable of striking Israel. Naturally, the Israelis also want to restrict Iran’s ability to do any damage to it. Finally, it has been the US's long-term ambition to do regime change in Iran. That is why the US backed the protests which occurred in Iran in the closing days of 2025 and in January 2026. The Iranian authorities put it down with the harsh use of force. Reports indicate that thousands died. The Iranian authorities have admitted that 3,117 people were killed. The opponents of the clerical regime allege that the death toll was 10 times that number.
Also read: US weighs Khamenei's elimination amid military build-up, nuclear talks: Report
The issue the US is currently focusing on relates to Iran’s nuclear enrichment. Iran has maintained that it is not willing to give up its sovereign right to enrich uranium as provided in the NPT. On the other hand, Trump is not willing to allow it any leeway at all. One suggestion that is being reported in the media is that Iran may agree if it is allowed to enrich nuclear material for medical purposes. That will enable it to claim that it has not given up its sovereign right and the US too would have achieved its actual purpose because a very small facility would be needed for such enrichment. No weapons-grade material could be produced in such a facility. However, this would be optically a loss for Trump and that he may not be able to bear.
Venezuela-like action not easy
The real question that Trump and his advisors must confront is what would be the endgame if they begin air action against Iran. They could order the extensive bombing of all the military bases and assets to degrade Iran’s war fighting abilities. They could also order the bombing of Iran’s economic facilities, hoping that this would lead to great distress among the people and that, in turn, would lead to demonstrations and unrest that would result in the overthrow of the Supreme Leader. Even if that would take place, would that lead to the collapse of the Vilayat-e-Faqih system ushered in after the Iranian Revolution of 1979 by Ayatollah Khomeini? There is no guarantee that it would. This is because the hold of the Revolutionary Guards is strong and it is doubtful if just air action would be able to destroy them. Certainly, it is impossible to expect that the US military would be able to accomplish a Venezuela-like action in Iran.
While Trump decides what action he orders, the world waits with apprehension.
(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas, or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal.)
