Bihar election opinon poll: ‘Tejashwi set to edge out Nitish; Prashant Kishor rising force’

As Bihar prepares for a high-stakes assembly election later this year, an exclusive opinion poll by political consultant Amitabh Tiwari’s 'Vote Vibe' offers a detailed snapshot of what voters are thinking. In an interview with The Federal, Tiwari talks about the mounting anti-incumbency sentiments and the role of emerging players like Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj party and how the poll findings shed light on key issues —unemployment, leadership preferences, and trust in electoral processes—that may define the outcome in one of India’s most politically crucial states.

How was the survey conducted, and what did it seek to measure?

We used the Computer Assisted Telephonic Interview (CATI) method. The objective was to gauge voter sentiment across Bihar on governance, leadership, development, and other pressing issues. The findings reflect how people perceive the performance of the Nitish Kumar-led NDA government and what they expect from political contenders.

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Your poll shows nearly 50 per cent of respondents feel strong anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar’s government. Is this the end of Bihar’s long-standing faith in Nitish?

The high anti-incumbency figure is a natural outcome of Nitish being in power for nearly 20 years. Both NDA and Mahagathbandhan have solid vote bases of around 32–35 per cent each. The swing will likely come from the 12 per cent undecided voters.

Anti-incumbency in Bihar works on four levels: against the chief minister, the government, local MLAs, and the administrative machinery. This poll captures the sentiment against the broader government.

Interestingly, among age groups 18-44, the anti-incumbency sentiment stays above 45 per cent. But it declines with older age groups. This reflects that the younger generation is more dissatisfied, primarily due to unemployment.

So young Biharis are more disillusioned with Nitish?

Yes, the frustration is clearly higher among younger voters. The primary reason is unemployment. Those aged 18-34 face the brunt of joblessness, whereas older citizens are more settled and less impacted by this issue. This generational divide is significant in shaping voting behaviour.

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Which party or alliance do voters trust more for Bihar’s development?

The INDIA Bloc edges out the NDA slightly—36.1per cent to 35.4 per cent. But what is striking is the 10 per cent support for Jan Suraaj, Prashant Kishor’s outfit. Among first-time voters (18-24), that figure rises to 21 per cent. Jan Suraaj has significant traction among the digital-savvy youth.

In contrast, Mahagathbandhan sees more support from voters aged 25-44, while NDA holds sway among senior citizens, largely due to schemes like pensions. The poll indicates that the race is tight and seat-by-seat contests will decide the final outcome.

Is Jan Suraaj acting as a spoiler for the Opposition?

Yes, Jan Suraaj is splitting the anti-incumbency vote. Without a third force, much of this 10 per cent support could have gone to the INDIA Bloc. But Prashant Kishor is also amplifying anti-NDA sentiment by consistently attacking the government, which benefits the Mahagathbandhan in terms of narrative.

Still, on a conceptual level, his entry is an opportunity loss for Tejashwi Yadav’s alliance, especially among young voters.

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Unemployment tops the list of issues. What’s the broader message here?

Nearly 50 per cent of respondents identified unemployment as the biggest issue. Among 18-24-year-olds, 53 per cent felt this way. For those aged 25–34, it rises to 58 per cent. Even 36 per cent of senior citizens listed it as a concern, often because their children remain jobless.

On job creation, 39.6 per cent trust the Mahagathbandhan, while 32.3 per cent trust NDA. Jan Suraaj earns 13.6 per cent. INDIA Bloc leads on this specific issue, possibly due to Tejashwi's claim of creating 4-5 lakh jobs during his previous tenure as deputy chief minister.

How do voters rate Nitish's performance on law and order—once his political strong suit?

Only 28.7 per cent said it had improved, while 34.2 per cent felt it had deteriorated. Around 28.5 per cent saw no change. This reflects the dent in Nitish's image following recent crimes that have dominated headlines.

Mahagathbandhan has historically struggled to shake off the 'Jungle Raj' tag. But in the last month, they've countered more aggressively with data and narratives. Still, many voters, even within the NDA, feel that Nitish’s performance has dipped since his early terms.

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Should the BJP project Nitish Kumar as NDA’s CM face again?

The results are mixed. Around 24.2 per cent said yes, he’s done good work; another 23.1 per cent said yes because the BJP has no choice. But 33.7 per cent said BJP should project its own chief ministerial candidate. The rest were undecided.

Together, the two “yes” options cross 47 per cent, showing that a significant chunk of BJP supporters still back Nitish—either out of appreciation or compulsion. The party hasn’t nurtured strong state leadership, and many of Nitish’s voters come from his loyal EBC, Mahadalit, and women voter base.

Who do voters prefer as the next chief minister?

Tejashwi leads at 32.1 per cent, followed by Nitish Kumar at 25 per cent, and Prashant Kishor at 12.4 per cent. Chirag Paswan garners 9.4 per cent. This shows that while Tejashwi is the top choice, Jan Suraaj is drawing away a portion of potential support, especially among younger voters.

That said, the chief ministerial face is just one of many factors. Voters also consider party loyalty, candidate reputation, caste, and the prime minister’s image. Even in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, only 10–15 per cent of voters made their choice solely based on the prime ministerial face.

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What do voters think about the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter list in Bihar?

About 34.5 per cent believe it’s a move to weed out illegal voters. However, 27.3 per cent say it wasn’t needed right now, and 14.8 per cent suspect it’s meant to manipulate results. Only 15.8 per cent see it as routine. Nearly 40 per cent of voters are sceptical about the timing or intent.

This aligns with nationwide trends of growing distrust in institutions. According to the CSDS 2024 survey, voter trust in the Election Commission dropped from around 12 per cent in 2019 to 23 per cent in 2024.

That said, most voters have submitted the required forms. If the number of genuine voters excluded remains low, the impact may be minimal. However, a lack of clarity on how many “illegal immigrants” were actually identified adds to the public’s suspicion.

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