Advantage BJP? Decoding Bihar Cabinet reshuffle

In this episode of Capital Beat, political commentator Ashok Mishra and independent media analyst Siddharth Sharma joined the discussion on Bihar’s latest Cabinet reshuffle, where Chief Minister Nitish Kumar inducted seven new BJP ministers. With BJP now holding 21 out of 36 Cabinet positions, questions arise about Nitish's diminishing influence and the state’s political trajectory ahead of the 2025 elections.

BJP assumes ‘big brother’ role

The recent Cabinet expansion has significantly strengthened BJP’s hold in Bihar, positioning it as the dominant player in the alliance with Janata Dal (United) (JDU). Mishra noted that BJP now controls 21 ministries, while JDU is left with only 13.

Also read: Nitish inducts seven BJP MLAs as ministers in election year

“For the first time, BJP has openly taken the upper hand in Bihar politics,” Mishra stated. He highlighted that BJP filled all 23 Cabinet positions allotted to them, leaving Nitish with limited space to manoeuvre.

Mishra pointed out that Nitish had previously kept some Cabinet seats vacant to maintain ambiguity over power-sharing. However, BJP insisted on filling all its positions, a move that signals its strategic intent ahead of the 2025 Assembly elections.

BJP’s caste strategy

BJP’s growing dominance is not just about numbers but also about caste calculations. The party has made strategic appointments to attract Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) and Kurmi voters – traditionally considered strongholds of Nitish’s JDU.

Also read: Will Bihar CM Nitish Kumar’s son Nishant enter politics?

“For the first time in 44 years, a Kurmi MLA from BJP has been inducted into the Bihar Cabinet,” Mishra noted.

Additionally, BJP has ensured significant representation for EBCs, who make up about 30 per cent of Bihar’s electorate.

Sharma observed that while BJP is using social symbolism to win over these communities, Nitish understands the importance of social mathematics – ensuring that voters feel empowered beyond mere representation. He argued that caste dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping Bihar’s electoral outcome in 2025.

Is Nitish losing ground?

Despite maintaining a public front of unity, Nitish seems to be ceding political space to the BJP. His party’s weakening grip over its core voter base and his dependence on the saffron party have led to speculation about his next move.

“Nitish Kumar is known for his unpredictability,” Mishra said, adding that while he currently appears to be aligned with BJP, there’s always a possibility of a last-minute political shift.

Sharma further analysed that Nitish is playing a tactical game. “By agreeing to BJP’s demands, he is ensuring that he secures a significant number of seats in the alliance and remains the chief ministerial face for 2025.” However, BJP has refrained from formally declaring Nitish as their chief ministerial candidate, keeping speculation alive.

Will Nitish switch alliances again?

One of the biggest talking points is whether Nitish might switch sides before or after the 2025 elections.

According to Mishra, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has already extended an olive branch, welcoming Nitish’s son Nishant Kumar into politics. “If Nitish Kumar chooses to leave the NDA, RJD has offered him the position of Chief Minister while making Nishant a Deputy Chief Minister,” he revealed.

However, Sharma believes that Nitish will likely contest the elections with BJP to secure upper-caste votes, which lean towards the saffron party. “But once the results are out, he might take a call based on the seat-sharing equation,” he added.

Resignation of Dilip Jaiswal: A sign of internal BJP strife?

The sudden resignation of Bihar BJP president Dilip Jaiswal as minister has fuelled speculation about internal rifts within the party.

Mishra explained that Jaiswal’s resignation follows BJP’s “one man, one post” principle, as he had to step down from the Cabinet to retain his party leadership. However, he also noted that there are deeper factional struggles within Bihar BJP.

“There’s an ongoing power struggle between those who have grown within BJP’s ranks and leaders who have migrated from other parties, like Samrat Choudhary,” he said. This internal discord could play a role in future political developments in the state.

The road ahead for Bihar

With eight months to go before the 2025 Bihar elections, political dynamics remain fluid. While BJP currently appears to be in the driver’s seat, Nitish’s history of political flip-flops keeps the possibility of realignment open.

For now, Nitish faces a tough balancing act – staying relevant within the NDA while safeguarding his party’s future. Whether he will stand firm with BJP or make another political U-turn remains to be seen.

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