Mayawati vs Rahul: Is India's Opposition crumbling?

In the latest episode of Capital Beat, a fiery war of words between BSP chief Mayawati and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi took centre stage. While Mayawati accused the Congress of acting as the BJP’s ‘B-Team’ in the Delhi elections, Rahul Gandhi extended an olive branch, saying the BSP was welcome to join the INDIA alliance. With Uttar Pradesh elections looming, the discussion explored Mayawati’s political stance, her relationship with BJP, and the future of BSP. The panel included Group Captain Dinesh Chandra (BSP supporter and Dalit politics expert), Sunita Aron (consulting editor, HT Lucknow), and TK Rajalakshmi (senior deputy editor, Frontline).

Mayawati’s sharp response to Rahul Gandhi

Rahul Gandhi, during his Raebareli visit, questioned Mayawati’s reluctance to contest elections aggressively. He suggested that their doors were open for the BSP if she wished to align with the Congress. Mayawati responded strongly, calling the Congress the real reason for the BJP’s resurgence in Delhi. In her tweets, she said, “Congress played BJP’s B-Team, causing its own downfall.”

Panelist Group Captain Dinesh Chandra highlighted that Mayawati’s political alliances have always been strategic. “In politics, no doors are permanently closed,” he said, hinting that Mayawati could switch sides if it benefits her politically.

BJP’s grip on Mayawati and BSP’s decline

Despite her hard-hitting attack on the Congress, experts pointed out that Mayawati has refrained from attacking the BJP too aggressively. Many believe she operates under pressure from the BJP, given pending legal cases against her.

Senior journalist Sunita Aron suggested that Mayawati’s reluctance to challenge the BJP openly stems from this pressure. She also noted that Mayawati’s once-dominant Dalit voter base is splintering. “The BJP has successfully wooed a section of Dalits through welfare schemes, while Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA (Pichda-Dalit-Alpsankhyak) formula is also making inroads.”

TK Rajalakshmi emphasised that the BSP’s organisational strength has weakened. “Mayawati has done little to prevent the BSP’s decline, while new Dalit leaders like Chandrashekhar Azad are rising.”

Rahul Gandhi’s outreach and Congress’ own struggles

While the Congress extended an olive branch, panelists questioned its ability to transfer votes to allies. Rajalakshmi pointed out that the Congress failed to help the Left in West Bengal and struggled in seat-sharing talks with the SP in UP. “Why should regional parties trust the Congress when it fails to deliver,” she asked.

Aron noted that Mayawati is a master of vote transfer, unlike Congress. This makes her valuable in alliances, but it remains uncertain whether she will join the INDIA bloc.

Mayawati’s political future and the leadership crisis

A key question in the discussion was: What is the BSP’s future if Mayawati does not adapt?

Group Captain Dinesh Chandra stated bluntly: “BSP’s future is bleak unless it frees itself from Mayawati’s control.” He argued that Dalit voters are drifting away, and Mayawati’s resistance to passing leadership to Akash Anand (her nephew) is hurting the BSP.

Rajalakshmi echoed these sentiments, saying, “Mayawati’s hesitation to empower Akash Anand shows she fears losing control. But if BSP does not evolve, it risks extinction.”

What lies ahead?

With UP elections two years away, the panel agreed that Mayawati remains a wildcard. She has the potential to impact results, but her ties with the BJP, reluctance to join the INDIA bloc, and leadership issues put the BSP at a crossroads.

While she still commands some Dalit support, the rise of Chandrashekhar Azad and shifting political equations could challenge the BSP’s relevance. The big question remains: Will Mayawati make a last-minute move to regain political ground, or will the BSP continue its decline?

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