After Mamata's fortress falls in Bengal, can TMC MPs keep party flag flying?

After the devastating loss it faced in the West Bengal Assembly elections on May 4, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has found itself confronting a myriad of questions. It's not just that its own future or that of its supremo Mamata Banerjee, who lost the chief minister's chair after this election, has come under scrutiny, but also how it survives these times and remains relevant in Delhi politics where it still has some clout.

Also read: Despite her call for a mega anti-BJP platform, why Mamata seems to be a lonely warrior

Questions are also circulating about whether the party's unity will remain intact at this testing hour, as incidents in the wake of the electoral debacle have indicated that the TMC is struggling to keep its house in order.

Can TMC's MPs help it survive?

Mamata has always been a big name in Bengal politics. Particularly after she stormed the Left's citadel in 2011 and assumed charge, every other political force in the state could only aspire to finish a distant second to her dominance. The firebrand leader spearheaded the state government and gave her TMC an identity.

But after the storm that blew her kingdom away earlier this month, one can't help but ask whether that fierce and all-encompassing influence still holds. Mamata herself also lost this election to her former party colleague and now a key rival, Suvendu Adhikari, who succeeded her as the CM, in her own turf.

With the supremo herself having no presence inside any legislative body, be it the Assembly or Parliament, to whom can the TMC look up to for direction now?

The answer to this question makes the party's legislative members pertinent, especially those at the Centre.

Parliament strength

The TMC currently has 28 Lok Sabha MPs (they won 29 seats in the 2024 elections, but one of their MPs passed away the same year) and 13 Rajya Sabha MPs.

It means out of 58 seats that Bengal offers to Parliament (42 in the Lower and 16 in the Upper), the TMC occupies 41 at the moment, which is more than 70 per cent and says the kind of weightage the party commands at the Centre.

Also read: Bengal's Didi shield cracks: How Mamata Banerjee lost the state she dominated

For a regional outfit, such a presence earns it a major clout. Since Bengal, thanks to its big population, sends 42 MPs to the Lok Sabha (third highest after Uttar Pradesh's 80 and Maharashtra's 48), securing a majority of them means the TMC enjoyed a strong national relevance, particularly since 2014.

That influence, in fact, has been closely tied to its performance in the Assembly elections.

TMC always dominated LS polls after sweeping Assembly wins

After registering the historic triumph in the 2011 elections, the TMC went on to bag 34 seats in the 2014 general polls. Similarly, it swept the 2016 elections and won 22 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 (the Bharatiya Janata Party saw a resurgence that year). In 2021, the TMC's gigantic win was followed by 29 Lok Sabha seats in 2024.

But the pattern is now at a grave risk. The 2026 Assembly debacle could point to a scary 2029 scenario for the TMC, particularly when it no longer has Mamata in any major role either in the state or central government, and the BJP is in charge of a double-engine government in New Delhi and Kolkata.

Didi, as Mamata is fondly called, is not unaware of the alarm. After the May 4 mayhem, she started calling her party's elected representatives and other officials to her residence to analyse the results. One among them was with the TMC MPs, and if some local reports are to be believed, some of the party's celebrity MPs did not turn up, triggering speculation at various quarters.

Understanding very well that the TMC now has its task cut out, the supremo told the MPs to stay connected with their constituencies, the grassroots workers, while waging a political and parliamentary battle against the government.

Mamata's prescription for a revival and avoiding a 2026-like situation in 2029 is understandable, but it is easier said than implemented.

A significant portion of TMC’s parliamentary representation includes celebrities and public figures from the entertainment industry.

Also read: What explains Bengal’s saffron shift? 6 reasons why Mamata was decimated

While this strategy helped the party during its rise to power and maintained its hold as long as it did, the current political environment has exposed its limitations. As some of these celebrity faces have been heard after May 4, there is a clear indication that they are struggling in the changed situation, particularly when their own party and political boss is no longer in power.

TMC implodes?

Rifts have also started surfacing within the party.

MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar was removed as chief whip in the Lok Sabha and replaced by her colleague Kalyan Banerjee. Following this, she expressed her dissatisfaction on social media, sarcastically saying she it was the reward she received for showing loyalty for four decades.

Kalyan, meanwhile, attributed the electoral defeat partly to political consultancy I-PAC, saying it had “sabotaged” the party's campaign.

One former state cabinet minister, Krishnendu Narayan Choudhury, openly blamed Abhishek Banerjee, Mamata's nephew and a TMC heavyweight MP in the Lok Sabha, saying the latter was responsible for such turn of events. It has been alleged that the corporate style of functioning of Abhishek, who is also the TMC's national general secretary, hurt the party's bases.

Also read: How ‘Khela Hobe’ went from an election slogan to one of India's most defining political battle cries

Another veteran MP, Sudip Bandyopadhyay, also came under criticism from a lower-ranked official in the TMC, after the party's WhatsApp chats got leaked in the media, indicating deeper organisational friction.

Saayoni Ghosh, another celebrity-MP, however, stood firm with the party leadership. Stressing that the 2026 elections were stolen and Mamata was forcefully defeated, the Jadavpur parliamentarian vowed that the TMC would come back in 2029 and 2031 (state polls). She even targeted those who allegedly prepared to jump ship, saying such people who choose against standing by Mamata at such an hour of crisis have no right to remain in the party.

Even Mamata was heard saying those who wish to leave the party are free to do so, reflecting the tension within the organisation.

Mahua Moitra, another firebrand TMC MP, also extended solidarity with her party, saying that it had to fight impossible odds and on an uneven pitch.

One would not forget the open spat between TMC MPs Kalyan and Mohua in the past. Those make the question of the party putting up a strong unity at a challenging time all the more relevant.

Rajya Sabha risk

The TMC also faces a structural challenge in the Rajya Sabha.

Upper House members are elected by state MLAs, and with the TMC’s strength having fallen to 80 MLAs from 215, the party is expected to lose a significant number of seats in the chamber, once the current Rajya Sabha terms expire.

Some of the TMC's major external challenges now remain withstanding pressures of intimidation or enticement of defections. We saw how the Centre upgraded Kakoli's security to 'Y' category after she reacted to losing her post of chief whip. It also came at a time when Abhishek's security cover was reduced.

The TMC still retains a core group of experienced MPs capable of strong parliamentary interventions and opposition strategy. In the state Assembly, too, it can still be a loud opposition to the BJP government, but the Adhikari administration would make it much tougher for the TMC to regain political momentum at the ground level.

The Left had emerged as kingmakers in the 2004 general elections, and the first United Progressive Alliance government of Manmohan Singh became dependent on them for its survival. But from such a position of strength, the Left has been turned into a fringe player in two decades. The TMC would not like to see the same fate befalling it.

Real test in 2029

The next general election in 2029 is expected to be the defining test for the TMC’s national relevance.

Even at 71, Mamata continues to be agile, and Abhishek Banerjee, despite this earth-shattering loss, has been managing the party's key organisational responsibilities for a while. One should not write him off immediately.

Political comebacks are not uncommon in Indian politics. The TMC can also script something similar. But as of May 2026, its fortress has crumbled, and it needs to get its act together fast and move in the right direction. Whether it is a temporary setback or the beginning of the end, only time will tell.