Assam BJP faces dual storm over ST status, Zubeen’s death ahead of 2026 polls

With just five months left for the 2026 Assembly elections, Assam’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is caught in a perfect storm of raw emotion and deep-seated frustration.

On the one hand, six major communities are fighting harder than ever for the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status. On the other, the mysterious death of beloved singer Zubeen Garg has sparked statewide grief and fury. Together, these crises are shaking the party’s stronghold in Upper Assam—a region of 40 key seats that has long been its backbone.

Twin issues

One storm that is brewing is about identity and broken promises. The other is about the sudden loss of a cultural hero and the burning question: Was justice served? Both are testing the BJP like never before.

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The six communities—Tai Ahom, Moran, Motok, Koch-Rajbongshi, Chutia, and Tea Tribes (Adivasis)—make up a huge chunk of Upper Assam’s voters. The BJP promised them ST status in 2016, then again in 2021. Nine years later? Still nothing. A Group of Ministers was formed to study the issue, but their final report hasn’t seen the light of day.

Frustration has boiled over into protests in Tinsukia, Dibrugarh, and Sivasagar—once the BJP’s rock-solid territory. Crowds chant betrayal. “We believed them twice,” said Bijay Rajkonwar, a Tai Ahom leader at a Dibrugarh rally. “How many elections will they fight on the same lie?”

It’s not simple. The existing tribal groups, through the All Assam Tribal Sangha (AATS), are dead against it. “This will eat into our already limited rights. We can’t let that happen,” an angry AATS General Secretary Aditya Khakhlary told The Federal.

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma insists he’s stuck: “We can’t just ignore the Opposition from existing ST communities.”

But to the protesters, that sounds like passing the buck after years of inaction.

Death of an icon

Then came September 19. Zubeen Garg—Assam’s voice, its heartbeat—drowned off Singapore’s Lazarus Island at only 52. Official story: Accident.

But Assam didn’t buy it. Not fully. Candlelight vigils turned into marches. Social media screamed “Justice for Zubeen.” What started as mourning became a movement—a cry against mistrust, secrecy, and a government that feels distant.

Also read: Zubeen Garg's death: Bandmate says manager poisoned singer; reveals shocking details

A special investigation team (SIT) has questioned over 90 people and arrested seven, including Zubeen’s manager Siddharth Sharma and an event organiser Shyamkanu Mahanta. CM Sarma has promised a chargesheet by December 17: “We’re close. Justice is coming.”

The Opposition isn’t convinced. “If it were murder, why no CBI? Why no High Court oversight?” asked Jagadish Bhuyan, general secretary of the Assam Jatiya Parishad, while speaking to The Federal. “This happened in Singapore—how can a local SIT crack it?”

Even the Opposition Congress, usually cautious, is speaking up. “We’re not politicising grief,” said spokesperson Mehdi Alam Borah. “But people deserve truth,” he told this publication.

Assam's pride and a bridge

Zubeen wasn’t just a singer. He was Assam’s pride—bridging the hills and plains, Hindus and Muslims, old and young. He had slammed the BJP’s Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), called them “batala” (meaningless). To many, he was the conscience they had lost.

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“If they fail him, they fail us,” said Ikramul Huda, an activist from Nagaon, who also told The Federal, “And we’ll remember—at the ballot box.”

A Guwahati BJP ward president, Ranju Sarma, conceded that the challenge was not to be ignored. “This hurts us. Zubeen wasn’t political to most—he was family. We have to handle this with care, or it’ll cost us,” he told this publication.

The party, however, is fighting back. Sarma called the probe “honest and swift” and urged the people not to “politicise pain”.

Analysts divided

The BJP MP from Guwahati, Bijuli Kalita Medhi, said, “They’re turning grief into votes. We’re the ones delivering justice.”

Also read: How did Zubeen Garg die? It wasn't a scuba accident; Assam CM reveals new details

The ruling party also launched Nyay Yatras—marches for justice—trying to show it feels the pain too. However, the schedule for the march on Sunday (November 2) was postponed.

Analysts are divided. Political scientist Dipankar Deka said, “It’s emotional, not electoral. The BJP’s machinery, development pitch, and a split Opposition will save them. Maybe lose 5–10 seats, tops.”

But others warn: In Assam, sentiment is power. “Zubeen isn’t a leader—he’s a feeling,” warned Huda. “Deny justice, and that feeling will deny you the votes.”

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won 86 seats (total seats in the state Assembly is 126) in the 2021 state polls. A cushion, yes. But youth, cultural voters, and Upper Assam’s anger could erode it fast.

The bigger picture

Assam stands at a crossroads. One storm is about promises kept or broken. The other is about a voice silenced—and whether the state listens to the ones left behind.

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As a young protester in Dibrugarh lit a candle before Zubeen’s mural, she said, “He gave us songs. Now we’ll give him justice.”

In five months, Assam will decide if these twin storms fade—or flood the polls.