Congress-Raijor Dal seat-sharing row hits Opposition alliance in Assam

The Assam Opposition’s carefully crafted strategy to counter the BJP-led NDA, which had delivered results in the 2024 Lok Sabha, has encountered a significant setback, with a key component of the alliance, the Raijor Dal, emerging as the spoilsport.

In 2024, the Congress-led INDIA bloc had built a rainbow coalition in Assam, comprising the Left parties, the Asom Jatiya Parishad, and the Raijor Dal, the last two being political parties focusing on identity politics centred on the greater Assamese society. It worked well for the Opposition alliance in the Lok Sabha elections, where it managed to significantly increase its vote share to 37.9 per cent from 35.8 per cent in 2019.

“Since the Lok Sabha results, it has been widely believed that the alliance will be able to pose a formidable challenge to the ruling BJP-led NDA alliance in the state assembly elections as well,” said Arup Jyoti Das, writer and political analyst.

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“There were a few important takeaways from the elections results, one of them being that Congress was slowly recapturing the Muslim-majority constituencies. Second, there was a vote transfer within the alliance, as both the top and lower-rung leaderships of the parties gelled well,” added Das.

Trouble over delayed seat-sharing talks

However, now, a political slugfest has started between the Congress and the Raijor Dal, with both parties pointing fingers at each other over tensions in the alliance, which has intensified after the latter announced that it would contest 36 of the 126 seats in the 2026 assembly election.

While the Raijor Dal has criticized the Congress over endless delays in seat-sharing talks, the Congress has taken potshots at the former for taking “unilateral decisions” and making unwarranted statements.

“Yes, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Opposition coalition gelled well, but let’s also remember that the Congress contested 13 of the 14 seats, and left only one for the Asom Jatiya Parishad. There was no seat for the Raijor Dal and the Left,” pointed out Russel Hussain, senior leader and spokesperson of the Raijor Dal.

Criticizing the Congress, Hussain further said that Raijor Dal president Akhil Gogoi had spoken with Gaurav Gogoi, president of the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC), and had requested that the process of alliance formation and seat sharing be expedited.

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“We were given a deadline, and the APCC president had told us that the seat-sharing process would begin by September 10. Till now, that has not happened and we can’t wait forever,” said Hussain.

On being asked if this doesn’t betray the alliance, Hussain explained that smaller parties like the Raijor Dal, with their limited resources, need time to prepare on the ground, and after seeing no progress on the alliance talks, the party had no option but to declare that it would contest the 36 seats where it has sizeable organizational structure.

“We are open to seat sharing even now, as we want the alliance to happen, and we believe the alliance can defeat the BJP-led NDA government next year,” said Hussain.

Congress denial

The Congress, however, rubbished the Raijor Dal’s claim of the September 10 deadline for seat sharing, saying that it made no such commitment.

“We did not make any such commitment, and secondly, if the Raijor Dal is serious about the alliance and seat sharing, it shouldn’t have announced that it would contest on so-and-so number of seats,” said Bedobrata Borah, spokesperson of the Assam Congress.

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Questioning the seriousness of the Raijor Dal, the Congress spokesperson said talks were ongoing with the Asom Jatiya Parishad, and similarly, talks were going on with the Raijor Dal, but suddenly, the latter announced it would contest 36 seats on its own.

“Talks can’t go on this way. This shows lack of commitment from their end,” claimed Borah.

Split in Opposition votes

Political analysts, however, say that this cold war between the two allies could end up benefitting the ruling alliance, like it had during the 2021 Assam Assembly election, where the then nascent Asom Jatiya Parishad and the Raijor Dal had helped the NDA alliance win several constituencies by cutting into the Opposition’s votes.

“Two of the most important factors in the 2021 Assembly election was the anti-CAA sentiment and the issue of Assamese identity, and all these three political parties—Congress, Asom Jatiya Parishad and Raijor Dal—raised and sought votes on these issues. This way, the Opposition votes had got fragmented and benefitted the NDA alliance in around 14 constituencies,” said Das.

Another worry in the Congress-led Opposition camp is about vote division in the constituencies with sizeable Muslim voters, as the Raijor Dal is set to contest in several Muslim-majority seats.

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Focus on Muslim votes

However, the Raijor Dal leadership defended the party’s decision and said it will contest only the seats where the BJP doesn’t have any chances of winning.

“If we look at the voting pattern in the recent elections, Muslim voters have moved away from the AIUDF and they will definitely not vote for the BJP. They will either vote for the Congress or some other Opposition party like the Raijor Dal,” said Hussain.

The Asom Jatiya Parishad leadership said the party’s talks on seat sharing with the Congress was on, but refused to comment on the political slugfest between the Congress and the Raijor Dal.

“Only months are left for the Assembly election. We hope the seat-sharing exercise is completed soon so that the candidates get enough time to prepare,” said Jagadish Bhuyan, General Secretary of the Asom Jatiya Parishad.