Ground report | People in a flux as constitutional crisis grips Manipur

At a relief camp in Imphal housing those displaced by ethnic strife, despondency and helplessness reign supreme. The camp’s inmates are far removed from the political uncertainty now gripping Manipur.

“What we will do by tracking the political development?” said Naocha Oinan, 52, at the camp in the Makola Gulap High Secondary School, some 10 kilometres from the Raj Bhavan, now the centre of focus for warring politicians.

“Will a change of the government make any change in our precarious existence? Will my children get a conducive atmosphere to study peacefully?” questioned Oinan, oblivious to a constitutional crisis looming over the state.

Also read: Manipur: BJP races against time to pick new CM for trouble-torn state

Uncertain future

Lodged in the makeshift camp in the school compound, having been uprooted from Churachandpur by the ethnic violence that broke out in May 2023, Oinan was more concerned about the future of his two children —one in Class 10 and another in Class 4.

“Cramped with more than 270 people, children here hardly get private space to study. We want to be rehabilitated as soon as possible. That will be our only appeal, whoever is in the government,” he said.

That Manipur government is currently in limbo. The constitutional sanctity took a beating as the fate of the Assembly was left uncertain after the mandatory six-month gap between two sessions lapsed on Wednesday.

Political deadlock

The seventh session of the 12th Manipur Assembly could not be held within the stipulated six months in the absence of a successor to N Biren Singh, who resigned as chief minister on Sunday.

The BJP’s northeast coordinator Sambit Patra spent the day holding back-to-back meeting with BJP legislators and leader at Hotel Imphal by the Classic and governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla at the Raj Bhavan to break the stalemate amid speculation over promulgation of President’s Rule.

Also read | Discussion: Will Centre impose President's rule in Manipur?

“If the deadlock is not resolved and the Assembly session is not held soon as per the constitutional norms, it could be deemed null and void,” said T Lokeshwar, a former speaker.

Constitutional crisis

As per the Article 174 (1) of the Constitution, a state Assembly has to be summoned at least once every six months. The last session of the Manipur Assembly was held from July 31 to August 12.

This means to uphold the constitutional provision, the Assembly needed to sit for its seventh session by electing a new leader by Wednesday (February 12).

Biren Singh resigned a day before the Assembly was supposed to meet for budget session amid a rebellion within the 32-member BJP legislature party and a no-confidence motion mulled by the opposition Congress.

Governor’s options

Following the development, former secretary general of Lok Sabha PDT Achary pointed out that the Article 174(1) became inoperative in the state as a House cannot be convened without a government.

Also read: Manipur: Crisis management plan enforced after Biren Singh’s resignation

A Gauhati High Court advocate, Fazluzzaman Mazumdar, said the onus was on the BJP to put in place a “transition plan” to protect the constitutional propriety.

Ideally, the party should have formed a new government electing a new leader before the expiry of the six-month period, he added. Since that did not happen, governor Bhalla could have recommended “suspended animation” of the House till a new leader emerges.

Exploring options

Mazumdar said since the Constitution was silent on what should follow if the gap is not maintained, the ruling dispensation takes the liberty to violate the provision. “This may be legally right, but what about the propriety?" he asked.

Ironically, this comes close on the heels of the BJP government convening a special session of the parliament to commemorate 75 years of the Constitution with much fanfare.

Stating that the state has plunged into a constitutional crisis due to uncertainty over the fate of the Assembly, the Manipur Congress is exploring legal options.

Congress against President’s Rule

“This is a violation of the constitutional sanctity. We are in touch with legal experts to decide our future course of action,” Manipur Congress president K Meghachandra Singh told The Federal.

He, however, said the Congress opposes the imposition of President’s Rule and placing the House in suspended animation.

Also read | Manipur: What lies ahead of Biren Singh who lived on the razor’s edge?

The party wants a democratically elected popular government to be installed immediately to safeguard democracy, he added.

Factionalism in BJP

A new government could not be installed as a fractured BJP legislature party failed to reach a consensus on the next chief minister.

The BJP central leadership could not resolve differences between outgoing chief minister Biren Singh and his challengers despite marathon mediations since Sunday.

This underscores deep-seated animosity within the party and a political divide in the society at large.

Women back Biren

Several Meira Paibi groups have been opposing dislodging Biren Singh, terming it as an anti-Meitei move.

Meira Paibi, literally meaning women torch bearers, is a powerful pressure group.

Its president Samom Tombi stated that those “valley-based MLAs rejoicing over the resignation of the chief minister might be hand in gloves with Kuki-narco-terrorists”.

BJP seeks new leader

The party is on the hunt for a leader who could at least unite the warring party factions.

Watch | When Manipur's brave women stood up against British rule: A story for the ages

The names of several leaders from both the camps were discussed in vain as probable replacement in the last two days.

The names doing the rounds were Assembly speaker Thokchom Satyabrata Singh, senior BJP legislators Yumnam Khemchand Singh, Basanta Kumar Singh, Radheshyam Singh and Biswajit Singh. BJP state president Sharda Devi’s name was reportedly discussed.

Manipur ferment

A consensus has eluded the party as none of the groups agreed to back a candidate from the other camp.

Manipur is in turmoil for over 21 months. At least 260 people have been killed and 60,000 displaced in the unending ethnic conflict involving the Meiteis and the Kuki-Zos.

The current political stalemate will only add to the problem.

Meanwhile, the Imphal Valley has turned into a virtual fortress beefing up security deployment in front of houses of the key legislators amid the political tussle. Patrolling and checking in key localities has intensified.

Chief Secretary PK Singh on Tuesday urged people to remain calm and vigilant against misinformation, cautioning that there might be deliberate attempts to spread rumour to create lawlessness.

The government has also set up a 24-hour control room for citizens to verify information.