Manipur violence: President's rule failed in restoring peace, says expert

Violence has erupted again in Manipur following the CBI’s arrest of a prominent leader of the armed wing of Arambai Tenggol, a powerful Imphal valley based group.

As protests escalate in Imphal and tensions reignite, The Federal’s P S Nisha speaks to Dhiran A Sadokpam, editor-in-chief of The Frontier Manipur, to understand the arrest’s implications, the political fallout under President’s Rule, and what lies ahead for the troubled north-eastern state.

Who is the Arambai Tenggol?

Arambai Tenggol is a powerful Imphal valley-based group in Manipur. Though often described as a socio-cultural organisation, it gained prominence after the eruption of ethnic unrest on May 3, 2023. The group claims to protect the interests of the Meitei community, especially those in the valley, but has frequently been accused of violent confrontations with Kuki-Zo groups and even within the Meitei community itself.

Did CBI’s arrest of their armed wing chief trigger fresh violence in Imphal?

Yes, the arrest of Assem Kanan, a key Arambai Tenggol leader, by the CBI has triggered fresh unrest in the Imphal valley. It led to widespread protests and the arrest of several members. However, all 12 individuals arrested were released unconditionally within 24 hours on Sunday evening—except Kanan, who remains in custody.

Also read: Manipur on the boil again: Meitei leader’s arrest stalls return to normalcy

What's the crux of CBI case which led to Assem Kanan’s arrest?

The CBI has said and even briefed MLAs who met governor Anusuiya Uikey that Kanan's arrest is not related to Arambai Tengol directly. It is based on personal grounds. However, the exact details of the case remain unclear. There's widespread speculation that his arrest is connected to a high-profile case involving multiple individuals and that this could be part of a broader investigation into the violence Manipur has experienced since 2023.

Importantly, this CBI investigation is being carried out under the mandate of the Supreme Court to probe incidents involving arms possession, illegal activities, and the broader ethnic violence since last year.

There is also a relevant FIR dated February 27, 2024, at the Porompat Police Station in Imphal East. While this is not directly linked to the CBI, it accuses Kanan and two other Arambai Tenggol leaders of attempt to murder, abduction, snatching, causing damage, and criminal intimidation.

The CBI may have picked up the case from this FIR.

Why is this arrest viewed with suspicion if a FIR already exists?

Many in the valley feel the law is selectively enforced. They argue that enough action hasn’t been taken against Kuki-Zo armed groups, while Arambai Tenggol and other valley-based groups have been targeted. There have been multiple operations against Arambai Tenggol and village defense forces in the valley.

Interestingly, Arambai Tenggol did surrender some arms to the Governor following the imposition of President's Rule. This was covered widely in the media. However, it’s unclear how much was surrendered or if the CBI has taken those cases into account. Governor Uikey emphasised that Kanan’s arrest is not connected to the group and praised Arambai Tenggol's role in recent flood rescue and rehabilitation efforts. But public perception remains skeptical due to the lack of transparency.

Will this violence impact demand for restoring an elected government in Manipur?

Yes, absolutely. This incident exposes the fragility of law and order under President’s Rule and strengthens the case for reinstating an elected government. Though the Centre imposed President’s Rule to stabilise the situation, the unrest following Kanan’s arrest fuels the view that a locally accountable government is better suited to manage the complex situation on the ground.

Also read: Curfew, internet ban in Manipur after violent protests over Meitei leader’s arrest

There’s also concern about the timing of this arrest. The state was slowly returning to normalcy, and this move, seen as provocative by Arambai Tenggol's substantial support base, may be a misstep. It reinforces the belief that President’s Rule has not succeeded in restoring peace.

What do you think is the way forward?

The Centre and its agencies seem intent on speeding up investigations to deliver justice and bring order. While the intent might be good, the fallout has been adverse. Political observers feel the timing of this arrest was miscalculated. It has provoked not just the group but the wider valley community that supports them.

This raises doubts about whether the Centre is serious about reinstating a popular government, even though the state assembly is in suspended animation, not dissolved. There’s a strong demand from BJP and Opposition parties alike to end President’s Rule and install a new government. Restoring normalcy is closely tied to this political resolution.

Also read: Internet suspended in Manipur after tension over Meitei leader’s arrest

Handling such sensitive cases, whether by the CBI or NIA, must be done carefully. The Centre must engage in patient political dialogue and avoid actions that send the wrong message or further provoke tensions. At the end of the day, Manipur cannot remain under President’s Rule indefinitely.

Reinstating a representative government is essential for peace-building and restoring a sense of normalcy that has been absent for the last two to three years.

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