Manipur crisis deepens as peace formula flops; Kukis mull referendum

As the Central government’s peace roadmap for Manipur fails to make headway, the Kuki-Zo community is now mulling a possible referendum on its demand for a separate administration.

While at a conceptual stage, the nitty-gritty of the idea is being discussed by leaders of the influential tribal bodies representing the community, sources privy to the development told The Federal.

If it happens, it will be the second time a community-induced plebiscite will be held in the North East to convey the people’s aspiration.

The Naga referendum

The Naga National Council (NNC) headed by the legendary AZ Phizo conducted a plebiscite on May 16, 1951, to press for its demand for Naga sovereignty.

It claimed that 99.9 per cent of the Nagas voted for independence from India. New Delhi rejected the plebiscite and doubts were raised over the fairness of the exercise.

Nevertheless, the contentious finding became the basis for over seven-decades of Indo-Naga political conflict.

Also read: As bus services resume in Manipur, Kukis clash with forces; women hurt

Home ministry talks fail

The Kuki-Zo plebiscite, if held, will provide a similar premise for the community’s quest for a separate administration, a demand rejected by the Manipur administration as well as Meitei civil society groups.

The Kuki-Zo community started contemplating about the referendum after its recent talks with a home ministry team headed by AK Mishra, the ministry’s North East adviser, remained inconclusive.

The ministry initiated the talks only after its attempt to ensure free movement of people between the Meitei-dominated Imphal Valley and Kuki-dominated hills sparked fresh violence, shattering an uneasy calm in the state since December.

Stolen weapons missing

Reopening of all roads for public commuting is one of the three prerequisites identified by the Centre for its peace roadmap. Disarmament of civilians and curbing the activities of the militant groups are the other provisions underlined in the peace formula worked out after the imposition of the President’s Rule in the state on February 13.

Until last week, around 1,000 arms and over 11,000 ammunition were recovered from various parts of Manipur, according to police sources. Most surrendered armaments are single or double-barrel guns or country-made weapons.

Around 6,000 sophisticated weapons have been looted from state armouries since the outbreak of ethnic strife between Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities in May 2023.

Also read: Gaurav Gogoi urges PM Modi to visit Manipur, calls for political solution

Centre’s unilateral move

Sources say hundreds of sophisticated arms are yet to be recovered even as both the warning communities welcomed the disarmament initiative.

There is no clarity as to what measures the government proposed to take to curb the activities of the militant outfits, particularly those of whom getting involved in the unrest despite a truce agreement with the government.

The biggest blow to the Centre’s peace effort, however, came when it unilaterally tried to enforce free movement, deepening the fault lines which have kept the conflict alive.

No consultation with stakeholders

One person was killed and several others, including women, were injured in violence that erupted when the government tried to roll out back and forth bus services between valley and the hills on March 8 without prior consultations with the stakeholders.

When Union Home Minister Amit Shah on March 1 set the deadline for free movement of people on all roads in Manipur, a state balkanized by the unprecedented ethnic unrest, it was expected that the announcement would be followed by dialogues with community leaders to ease deep-rooted mistrust.

An apex body of the Kuki-Zo community had told the government that it cannot guarantee free movement of people across buffer zones until there was a pact for cessation of hostilities between the warning communities.

Also read: Manipur: Protester killed in Kangpokpi

Kukis oppose free movement

Without paying heed to the caution, the government tried to resume bus services under security escort between Imphal and Churachandpur via Bishnupur and Imphal and Senapati via Kangpokpi.

The unilateral decision ran into strong opposition from the Kuki-Zo community, leading to clashes between the security forces and the public at Gamgiphai in Kangpokpi district, thwarting the home ministry’s ambitious “initiative towards bringing normalcy in the state.”

A suggestion for the formation of a ‘State Goodwill Mission’ put forth in August last year by the Forum for Restoration of Peace, Manipur, is yet to be taken seriously by the Centre.

Political solution needed

The forum is the joint peace initiative by the two major neutral communities: Nagas and Pangals (Meitei Muslims).

Instead of trying to find a political solution to the problem, as Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi pointed out in parliament, the BJP-led government at the Centre is treating the conflict as a mere law-and-order issue.

“No conflict in the North East has ever been resolved by using the might of the security forces. The society, particularly the tribal community, is very cohesive and people are even willing to give their life for an issue perceived as a community cause,” said professor Xavier Mao of the North-Eastern Hill University (NEHU).

Also read: Manipur: Kuki-Zo Council ends shutdown but opposes free movement

Simmering tensions

Even past conflicts in Manipur, such as the one between the Nagas and Kukis in the 1990s, were resolved through inter-community dialogues, he said, suggesting that even the present crisis could only be resolved through talks.

“Any security enforcement is bound to meet with counter-violence as it was witnessed during the attempt to enforce free movement,” he told The Federal.

Movements of goods are, however, permitted through the national highways 2 and 37, the state’s two lifelines.

Blocking highways

As both the highways pass through the Kuki-dominated hill areas, any blockade of the roads cut the supply line to the Meitei-dominated valley region.

From time to time, Kuki-Zo groups have enforced economic blockade on the two highways to press for the demand for a separate administration.

Free public movement has been suspended since the conflict erupted.

Also read: Manipur: Meitei body's peace march stopped in Imphal West

Peace moves sought

“Restoration of unrestricted public movement is key to ending segregation, essential for restoration of peace. But first there should be some confidence building measures or else it might lead to more bloodshed,” a security official said, citing incidents of violence that took place when a person from either of the communities even mistakenly crossed over to another's territory.

The ethnic conflict has resulted in over 250 deaths and displacement of more than 60,000 people.

Arms smuggling up

Taking advantage of the conflict, armed extremist groups have bolstered their strength by recruiting new cadres, procuring weapons and whipping up ethnic sentiments.

Cross-border arms smuggling, according to security officials, have also increased in the past 22 months, further complicating the vexed problem over which the Centre appears clueless.