President’s Rule fails to seal Manipur BJP rift; rebels seek elected CM

The imposition of President’s Rule in Manipur has not done anything to repair the fracture within the state BJP unit. On the contrary, the move has not gone down well with the party’s rebel legislators amid indications that it would not be lifted anytime soon.

The instruction to the central forces is to first “disarm the society” without being too coercive, a process which will take at least three months, an army official told The Federal.

The rebels MLAs are not willing to wait that long for the installation of a democratically-elected government, as they believe that prolonging President’s Rule would further complicate the situation.

What BJP rebels fear

Their apprehension is that the public sentiment would turn against them if any civilian atrocities take place during the proposed “flush-out” operation or if any major violence takes place during this period of central rule.

“Along with the Centre, we would be blamed for any fiasco because a social-media campaign is already on, holding dissidence in the party responsible for the central rule,” said a BJP rebel MLA.

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Moreover, they feel that an elected consensus-driven leader would be in a better position to convince the warring groups to lay down arms.

Demand for Biren’s replacement

The dissidents on Friday (February 14) once again conveyed to the party high command through its North East coordinator Sambit Patra, who is still camping in Imphal, that a leader be elected from among the BJP legislature party to replace Biren Singh.

“We have not proposed any name. We have been telling the party leadership that it should take a call as to who should be the next chief minister based on its own assessment as to who is the most suitable person to build consensus within the party as well as in the society,” the MLA said.

The group will wait till February 20 for the central leadership to resume dialogues within the party to choose a leader. “Failing that, we will send a team to meet our party top leaders to reiterate our position,” said the MLA.

There are 23 legislators, including 14 from the BJP, who revolted against Biren, according to the sources in the rebel camps. The ten Kuki MLAs are not included in the headcount.

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Political uncertainty

The strength of the House without the Kuki legislators is 49. The Tadubi seat has been vacant since the sitting NPP MLA N Kayisii died earlier this month.

Biren, reportedly, still enjoys the support of 18 BJP MLAs and three from the alliance partners.

Among the alliance partners, the Janata Dal (United) has six, the National People’s Party (NPP) six, and the Naga People’s Front has five MLAs. There are three independent MLAs. The Congress has five MLAs in the House.

The dissident group is hopeful of getting the support of three more BJP MLAs from the Biren camp, who are in regular touch with them.

Fear of an unstable government

Since the support scale is poised evenly, the new government will not be stable unless there is a consensus among both the camps of the leadership, the BJP leadership felt, while opting for President’s Rule.

The primary responsibility of the security forces now would be to recover the weapons looted during the 21 months of unrest.

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According to the army sources, out of around 6,000 weapons looted, only about 2,200 have been recovered so far.

Apart from that, both Meitei and Kuki militants are also heavily armed.

COCOMI’s demand

Meanwhile, an umbrella organisation of several civil society organisations of the state termed President’s Rule “unreasonable” and a “deliberate ploy” of the Centre to “push Manipur further into turmoil”.

“The forced resignation of the Chief Minister in the dead of night, just before a crucial state assembly session, without any proper explanation to the people, is an outright betrayal of democratic principles. The fundamental question remains unanswered: was this decision made for the welfare of the people, or was it a calculated move to deepen the crisis? What shocks the people of Manipur and the entire nation even more is the fact that such a drastic decision was taken without even having an alternative leader in place to ensure a smooth transition of governance,” read a press statement issued on Friday by the Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI).

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It demanded an “immediate and time-bound process” to elect a new leader and restore a popular government at the earliest. “Failure to do so will make every BJP MLA and leader in Manipur directly accountable to the people for their political irresponsibility and betrayal,” it added.