PM Modi’s visit to Manipur comes amid a minefield of challenges

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Manipur on September 13 for the first time since ethnic violence broke out in 2023, he will be stepping into a minefield of challenges, with new problems continuing to emerge even as a resolution to the communal strife remains elusive.

Fraught with unresolved conflict, political discontent, and fresh agitation, the state expects more than a symbolic return to normalcy, said Imphal-based political and human rights activist Onil Kshetrimayum.

In that context, the prime minister’s expected visit is likely to test the Centre’s strategy on multiple fronts, from ethnic reconciliation to political stability, amid growing signs of defiance in Meitei and Naga-dominated areas.

3 BJP leaders join Congress

In some indication of the prevailing mood, three BJP leaders joined the Congress on Monday (September 8) in a blow to the saffron party in the state ahead of the high-profile visit.

The three leaders are former Kakching MLA Y Surchandra Singh, former Oinam MLA L Radhakishore Singh, and Uttamkumar Ningthoujam.

Also Read: Is Manipur back to 'normal' ahead of PM Modi's visit?

Surchandra Singh, a retired IAS officer, represented the Kakching constituency for three consecutive terms from 2007 to 2017. He contested the 2022 election on a BJP ticket but lost.

Radhakishore Singh served as the MLA from Oinam constituency in 2002 and again in 2017. He too was defeated in the 2022 elections.

BJP ‘sinking ship’

Commenting on the development, Manipur Pradesh Congress chief Keisham Meghachandra Singh told The Federal that the political shift is a result of mounting dissatisfaction with the BJP government’s handling of the Manipur crisis.

“Many sitting BJP legislators are also ready to abandon the party’s sinking ship and are already in the queue to join the Congress,” Meghachandra added.

That not all is well within the BJP is also evident when only 23 out of the party’s 32 Meitei MLAs turned up for the meeting convened by Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla at Raj Bhavan to discuss issues related to Modi’s ensuing visit.

Former chief minister N Biren Singh and Speaker T Satyabrata were among those present.

Also Read: Kuki-Zo groups ink SoO deal with Centre to aid Manipur peace process

The state assembly is currently under suspended animation following the imposition of President’s Rule.

The BJP-led coalition comprises 44 legislators, including 32 from the Meitei community, three representing Manipuri Muslims, and nine from the Naga community. The Congress holds five seats, all represented by Meitei legislators. The remaining 10 members, including seven from the BJP, are from the Kuki community.

The current strength of the assembly is 59 as one seat became vacant due to the demise of a legislator.

‘Shocking display of partisanship’

The governor’s selective invitation to only BJP legislators and the party’s state president A Sharda Devi has triggered political controversy and fuelled speculation that a renewed attempt is underway to build consensus within the deeply-divided BJP legislature party over the choice of a new chief minister.

The BJP leaders were invited to seek their assistance in persuading civil society organisations, including the Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI), one of the largest Meitei groups, to welcome the prime minister, a source familiar with the development said. The source added that there was no discussion related to government formation.

Also Read: Congress slams PM Modi's foreign visits, says he has 'washed his hands of Manipur'

Former chief minister and Congress legislature party leader Okram Ibobi Singh criticised the governor’s selective invitation to BJP leaders, calling it a blatant violation of the sanctity of the Raj Bhavan and an affront to democratic norms.

Describing the meeting as a “shocking display of partisanship” between the governor and the BJP, he said the Raj Bhavan should “remain above politics.”

“At a time when unity and inclusion are most needed, selective consultation sends the wrong signal to the people of Manipur,” Ibobi said.

Backlash from Meitei groups

The government is scrambling to placate Meitei civil society groups, as its recent peace-building efforts such as the renewal of the Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with Kuki-Zo insurgent groups and the claim of reopening National Highway 2 have sparked a backlash in the Meitei-dominated Imphal Valley.

Organisations like the COCOMI have condemned the SoO renewal as an “anti-people move,” accusing the government of legitimising insurgent outfits and undermining Manipur’s integrity. Several groups have demanded the immediate abrogation of the agreement, warning that its continuation could fuel further unrest.

Also Read: Centre to hold high-stakes talks to defuse tension over its border policy in NE

Incidentally, the Biren Singh-led BJP government in February last year adopted a resolution in the Assembly advising the Centre against SoO renewal.

“The further extension of the SoO agreement ahead of the prime minister’s visit, ignoring the Assembly resolution, once again exposed the BJP’s double standard,” Meghachandra said.

Demand for NH 2 to be open to Meiteis

The biggest setback to its so-called peace efforts came when Kuki-Zo groups denied reaching any agreement on the free movement of communities along National Highway 2. This reversal has sparked protests in the Imphal Valley.

Demanding that the highway be opened to the Meitei community, three civil society organisations namely Awang Sekmai Kanba Nupi Lup, Imagi Meira, and the People’s Progressive Alliance Manipur are staging an indefinite sit-in protest from September 5.

Also Read: Rajya Sabha passes Manipur Prez Rule resolution extension amid INDIA Bloc's SIR protest

“What kind of government is this that cannot even enforce its own agreements?” asked Imagi Meira convenor Sujata.

“We are deeply disappointed with the central government and do not expect any positive outcome from the prime minister’s visit. What meaningful change can he bring in just a few hours of his visit? If the government truly cares for us, it should ensure that highways are open to all communities and guarantee the safe return of displaced people to their homes,” Sujata said over the phone from the protest site at Sekmai Bazar in Imphal West.

New crisis – trade embargo by Nagas

As if that were not enough, a new crisis is brewing. The United Naga Council (UNC) has announced a trade embargo from midnight on September 8, targeting critical lifelines like NH‑2 and NH‑37.

The move is a protest against the Centre’s decision to scrap the Free Movement Regime (FMR) and expedite border fencing along the India–Myanmar border, a move Naga groups say would threaten their historic and cultural ties with Naga communities across the border.

Also Read: Kuki-Chin fratricidal wars worsen Manipur conflict as Naga group chokes key roads

The embargo threatens to disrupt essential supplies just as logistical preparations for the prime minister’s visit reach their peak.

UNC president Ng Lorho said their agitation would continue until the government rolls back its decision, clearly indicating that protests would persist during the prime minister’s visit unless the Centre meets their demands.