Anant Singh arrest: Has the Mokama killing reignited Bihar’s caste fault lines?

In this episode of Capital Beat, Dr Sanjay Kumar, Professor at AN College, Patna, and senior journalist Ashok Mishra, examine the political fallout of the arrest of Janata Dal (United) candidate Anant Singh in connection with the murder of Jan Suraaj Party supporter Dular Chand Yadav in Mokama. The discussion focused on constituency-level polarisation, alliance arithmetic, and campaign signals across Bihar.

Dr Kumar said polarisation began before the killing and described the death as a catalyst for caste-based consolidation. Mishra discussed Mokama’s profile as a sensitive constituency and outlined how administrative action could shape immediate messaging.

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The panel also discussed seat-level dynamics, including the positioning of major and smaller parties, and how emerging combinations could influence outcomes in adjoining areas.

Polarisation and trigger points

Dr Kumar stated that polarisation predated the incident. “The polarisation had already begun before Dular Chand Yadav’s death — his killing has only deepened and accelerated the caste-based divide,” he said.

He acknowledged the recent arrest but pointed out that key investigations remain incomplete. “Anant Singh has been arrested, but Priyadarshi is still wanted and currently underground,” he said, describing the situation as still evolving.

He added that caste alignments in Mokama and adjoining areas could become more entrenched. “In these areas, the Dhanuk community is present in large numbers. If the impact of this incident spreads among them, it could spell trouble for the NDA candidate,” he said.

Mokama’s sensitivity and administrative response

Mishra termed the incident significant in the recent political context. “It was an unfortunate incident… and… after a long time… such political murders… happened in Bihar,” he said.

He described the constituency’s trajectory. “Mokama is a very sensitive constituency… the place where the Bahubalis fight… It used to be the industrial hub… but it has become a battleground for politicians with tainted reputations,” he said.

He characterised the arrest as a stabilising move. “It’s an attempt to contain the situation and prevent it from turning into a confrontation between backward castes and others,” he said, referring to the timing and intent behind the move.

Caste configuration on the ground

Mishra cited local social composition in Mokama. “Nearly 35%… are upper caste votes… and they are very powerful… a dominant force,” he said. The remaining population, he said, includes Yadavs, Muslims and Extremely Backward Classes, with the Jan Suraaj candidate from the Dhanuk community, which is “numerically preponderant and very important in that area.”

He said the development might consolidate specific blocs. “The majority of the Bhumihar votes will go in favour of Anant Singh,” he said, while acknowledging possible shares for opponents.

He linked campaign management to senior leadership. Referring to statements and on-ground coordination, he said it showed an effort to take “command” of the political management in the constituency.

Adjoining areas and intensity of effects

Dr Kumar listed neighbouring constituencies, he believed, were susceptible to spillover. He said the effect could be the strongest in the immediate belt while remaining less intense elsewhere.

He underlined the Dhanuk vote as pivotal. “No one can win there without their support,” he said, adding that they make up a sizeable portion of the local electorate.

He linked the campaigner’s identity to likely preferences. “Dular Chand Yadav was campaigning for the Jan Suraaj candidate, and he is Dhanuk… I don’t think that Dhanuks are going to vote for Anant Singh,” he said, outlining a possible triangular contest in the seat.

Smaller parties and altered baselines

Dr Kumar contrasted the current landscape with the previous election cycle. “Last time, the LJP had managed to dent the JD(U)’s prospects. But this time, even winning 10 seats would be a surprise for the party,” he said.

Also read | Why Dularchand Yadav's murder has become a flashpoint of Bihar polls

He added a remark on campaign optics. Referring to Chirag Paswan’s public appearances, he noted a visible change in his demeanour during events, while citing gestures from senior leaders that indicated evolving equations.

He described the JD(U) leadership as seasoned in negotiations. Nitish Kumar, he said, was a “very veteran politician” and “hard bargainer,” with experience in utilising situations within alliances.

Crowds, rallies and messaging

Dr Kumar commented on campaign attendance patterns. He said some national rallies showed “so many empty chairs,” while noting that certain Opposition meetings were “catching the crowd.”

He delivered a mixed assessment of rallies by the chief minister, calling one event “not very successful,” and describing “most of them” as successful in turnout terms.

He referred to public messaging used by the NDA during the campaign. He cited the phrase “there is no vacancy of CM” as a signal of intent, despite the absence of a formal declaration.

Alliance posture and projection

Dr Kumar described a shift in stance. “The BJP earlier seemed poised to win on its own, but the situation has changed, and the party has come to realise this compulsion,” he said.

He suggested that a formal announcement on leadership could be possible as the momentum builds. “It won’t be a surprise that… they might declare Nitish Kumar as their CM face,” he said, framing it as a developing campaign posture.

Mishra also pointed to a possible projection during the campaign. “BJP might announce him the next chief minister very soon,” he said, linking it to changing campaign dynamics.

Friendly contests and transfer patterns

Dr Kumar pointed to seat-level coordination between the major parties in the Opposition camp. “There is a tacit alliance… There are 30 seats where they are engaged in a friendly fight, and there is a transfer of votes also,” he said, describing reciprocal movement of support.

He outlined a potential path in a specific seat-range scenario. “If they get a good number, it won’t be a surprise if Nitish Kumar deserts the BJP and joins hands with the RJD,” he said, presenting it as a possibility under discussion.

He emphasised that such scenarios would be contingent on results and on-the-ground alignments in each constituency.

Who gains, who loses

Dr Kumar assessed the immediate political effects of the episode. “There is an effort to control the damage. But the damage has already been done,” he said.

He added an overall view of the likely impact. “The main loser will be the BJP. The JDU will also suffer, but not much,” he said, listing it as his observation of the current scenario.

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Mishra took a different view on constituency arithmetic. He argued that Bhumihar consolidation would benefit Anant Singh, while the Jan Suraaj candidate would draw Dhanuk votes, and the RJD nominee would rely on Yadav, Muslim and other sections, setting up “a very tough fight.”

Law and order, and political narrative

Dr Kumar discussed the broader frame of governance. “There is no state-sponsored criminal activities… what we had… earlier,” he said, while acknowledging the significance of the Mokama killing as “the biggest incident” in recent days.

He reiterated his earlier distinction between an isolated incident and a broader pattern, adding that, at the state-wide level, the situation is “more or less okay” in the current context discussed.

He concluded that the key factors shaping the ongoing contest are the seat-level caste equations and the strategic campaign choices made in the final phase.

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