In Bihar elections, why India Bloc has the edge I Interview

As Bihar gears up for the upcoming Assembly elections, the state's political arena is witnessing a sharp resurgence of Mandal versus Kamandal politics. With caste equations being recalibrated, women voters emerging as a strategic demographic, and new power players like Chirag Paswan altering the game, the contest promises to be one of the most unpredictable in recent times. In this wide-ranging interview, senior journalist Ashok Mishra unpacks the complex caste dynamics and the shifting alliances shaping Bihar's political future.

Is this shaping up to be another Mandal vs Kamandal election in Bihar?

Absolutely. As Bihar heads toward the November elections, the political landscape is now dominated by a direct clash between the Mandal and Kamandal narratives.

The NDA is trying to consolidate support among the backward classes through measures like 10% EWS (Economically Weaker Sections) reservation and other sops for socially weaker sections. These initiatives aim to attract communities typically opposed to upper castes.

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On the other hand, the RJD-led Opposition is reviving the spirit of Mandal politics. When Tejashwi Yadav was in power with Nitish Kumar, the alliance pushed for expanding reservation limits from 50% to 65%, in addition to the 10% EWS quota. Though the Supreme Court later rolled it back to 50%, the Opposition is now demanding reservation in the private sector, an uncharted territory in Bihar’s political discourse.

This sets the stage for a clear ideological and electoral battle between social justice-focused Mandal politics and the religious-cultural narrative of Kamandal.

Does the INDIA bloc, or Mahagathbandhan as it's known locally, hold an edge right now?

Many of its constituents appear to be in a relatively comfortable position, largely because of a prevailing public perception that Nitish Kumar is physically fragile and politically weakened. Nitish's traditional base includes Kurmis, Koeris, and the Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs), but that’s now under threat. This shift in caste alliances has tilted the balance toward the Mahagathbandhan for now.

Yet, Nitish Kumar still seems to have considerable support among women voters. Could that change the game?

Yes and no. Nitish Kumar has indeed done a lot for women, introducing 30% reservation in government jobs and panchayats, prohibition, and schemes like free bicycles for schoolgirls. These have brought him political dividends in the past.

However, in the 2020 Assembly elections, despite this, the JD(U) plummeted to just 43 seats out of the 115 it contested. If women had backed him en masse, that drop wouldn't have been so steep.

In contrast, the NDA performed strongly in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, winning 24 seats. So, there’s a contrast between state and national polls.

Women voters, especially self-help groups like Jeevika Didis, do favour Nitish, but caste continues to play a role even among women. It's unlikely that they'll vote en bloc, cutting across caste lines. That complexity makes it hard to predict. There's concern around the special intensive revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, too. How significant is that?

It’s causing confusion and concern. Many people from weaker sections and upper castes working outside Bihar risk losing voting rights due to documentation issues. Daily wage workers from Bihar are everywhere, from Chennai construction sites to Delhi factories. If they can't verify their documents, they may be excluded from voter rolls. This uncertainty adds another layer of unpredictability to the electoral outcome.

You mentioned that EBCs are the largest caste group in Bihar. How are parties trying to win them over, and could they break traditional voting patterns?

The EBCs are indeed central to the electoral math. When Nitish Kumar first came to power in 2005, he disrupted the traditional caste equations. Earlier, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD commanded the loyalty of most backward castes and Dalits, while upper castes opposed him.

But the 36% EBC population doesn’t follow the broader NDA narrative. Their votes are largely determined by caste-based candidate representation. For example, Rajesh Kumar of the Congress comes from the Ravidas community, a traditional Congress and RJD vote bank. Similarly, Mangani Lal Mandal from the RJD represents the Dhanuk caste, which is numerically strong in northern and northeastern Bihar.

These are not symbolic appointments. These leaders can genuinely mobilise votes within their communities.

So, will economic issues like unemployment and leadership fatigue outweigh caste identity for these voters?

Not really. Economic distress certainly plays a role, but caste still reigns supreme. The BJP’s strategy of fielding EBC candidates shows that they recognise this.

Take the Dhanuks, for instance. They are closely related to the Kurmis, but are far more numerous. They, along with communities like the Mallahs (fisherfolk), are key among the EBCs. These votes matter and will largely go where their caste leaders direct them.

How does Chirag Paswan factor into all this? Could he be a game-changer?

Chirag Paswan is a wild card. He's already disrupted the NDA once in 2020 by contesting independently, which severely hurt Nitish Kumar’s JD(U). Now he's saying he will contest all 243 seats. This has multiple implications.

First, he could again damage Nitish's prospects. Second, his assertion suggests he is nursing chief ministerial ambitions. And third, in a fractured verdict, he could emerge as a consensus candidate for CM, with the BJP’s backing, much like what happened in Maharashtra.

The speculation is real in Bihar’s political circles. You also mentioned caste-based voting patterns where people prioritise caste over party. How deep does this go?

Very deep. Ever since Congress lost ground in the 1990s and Lalu, Nitish, and Ram Vilas Paswan rose as the three dominant backward caste leaders, caste has dictated the political landscape.

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Now, Kushwahas and Koeris, like BJP leader Samrat Chaudhary and Upendra Kushwaha, hold significant sway. These communities often vote for their caste candidate regardless of party affiliation. Rajputs do the same. Even upper castes, who have a natural affinity for the BJP, will switch if a strong candidate from their caste contests under the RJD.

So yes, slogans like ‘Operation Sindhu’ or other campaign gimmicks don’t matter as much as caste allegiance.

In that case, is Mandal still stronger than Kamandal in Bihar today?

Yes. Mandal politics, centered around caste-based empowerment and social justice, remains dominant. Kamandal, which evokes a Hindu nationalist identity, struggles to override deeply entrenched caste affiliations.

It’s impossible to predict the outcome at this stage, but one thing is clear: caste will be the biggest ballot issue in Bihar, once again.

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