Bihar election: The X-factors that could decide the winner | Talking Sense With Srini

As Bihar heads towards another high-stakes Assembly election, The Federal’s Editor-in-Chief S Srinivasan believes the state stands at a political inflection point — one that could mark the end of Nitish Kumar’s two-decade dominance and the rise of a new political disruptor, Prashant Kishor.

“The coalition equations may look balanced on paper,” Srinivasan said on Talking Sense with Srini, “but the real contest this time is not just between alliances — it’s between legacy and change.”

Evenly matched

According to Srinivasan, both the NDA, led by Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the BJP, and the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), spearheaded by the RJD and Congress, are evenly matched in arithmetic.

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“In the 2020 elections, both alliances polled an identical 37.2 per cent of the votes,” he noted. “The difference was in strike rate — the BJP’s 67 per cent efficiency brought them 74 seats, while the JD(U) underperformed, securing only 43.”

But the story of Bihar politics, he argued, goes far beyond numbers. It is also a tale of shifting social coalitions. “Lalu Prasad Yadav gave Bihar’s backward classes political pride,” Srinivasan explained. “Nitish Kumar followed with an administrative order — Sushasan Babu, as he came to be called. But now, Nitish is in the twilight of his career. His personal integrity may be intact, but he’s surrounded by people facing serious corruption allegations. The anti-incumbency against his government is real.”

Kishore, 'potential disruptor'

Srinivasan calls Kishor, the former poll strategist-turned-politician as a “potential disruptor” in this election. “He’s walked over 2,500 villages across Bihar in 600 days,” he said. “He’s not appealing to caste or religion but to aspiration — especially among educated, unemployed youth. If Lalu represented empowerment and Nitish represented governance, Prashant stands for ambition.”

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Still, Srinivasan cautioned that translating crowds into votes in Bihar is a different game. “Caste remains the ultimate denominator,” he said. “Unless Kishor can cut through that, he may not win many seats. But make no mistake — he can be a spoiler. Remember, Chirag Paswan’s party won just one seat in 2020 but damaged the JD(U) in 33 constituencies. Kishor could play a similar role — not king, but kingmaker.”

On the ruling front, Nitish is banking heavily on women voters. “In 2020, women’s turnout exceeded men’s by five percentage points,” Srinivasan pointed out. “He’s betting again on schemes like the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana, promising Rs 10,000 to self-help groups. But Opposition parties are calling this state-sponsored bribery, given its timing.”

Tejashwi's challenge

The RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, meanwhile, is trying to shed the “jungle raj” legacy of his parents’ rule. “Tejashwi is consciously modernising his image,” Srinivasan said. “He’s positioning himself as young, clean, and forward-looking. But his challenge remains expanding beyond the Muslim-Yadav base to attract Extremely Backward Castes, who make up nearly 36 per cent of the electorate.”

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As for Nitish, Srinivasan was clear: “His health, his party’s decline, and a restive electorate have all caught up with him. You can never write off a politician, but for Nitish, the battle for survival has never been tougher.”