Nitish 10.0 govt: Why both BJP and JDU want Home Minister, Speaker posts

The latest Capital Beat panel discussion, featuring senior journalist Vivek Deshpande and The Federal's Political Editor Puneet Nicholas Yadav, centered on the last-minute roadblocks hitting cabinet formation talks between the NDA allies in Bihar, specifically the tussle over the Home portfolio and the Speaker's post.

The swearing-in ceremony for the new NDA government in Bihar is scheduled for November 20, with differences reportedly to be ironed out upon the arrival of Amit Shah in Patna in the evening.

The main point of contention is the Home portfolio, previously held by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar himself. Earlier reports also indicated that the JDU and the BJP are vying for the Speaker’s post, which the BJP ws keen to retain. The panel debated whether this struggle signals brewing distrust between the JDU and the BJP and if these two powerful posts have become a rallying point in alliance politics.

Yadav said there was a consensus to maintain the "status quo" from the previous government, where Nitish retained the Home portfolio and the Speaker was from the BJP. He noted that in the two decades of JDU-led government in Bihar, from 2005 to 2020, the Speaker's post had always been held by the JDU, with the BJP's Vijay Kumar Sinha becoming Speaker only in 2020.

The larger question

The larger question, he said, is what this tussle signals, observing that in alliance governments with the BJP as an ally, the question has often boiled down to who becomes the Speaker, not just who becomes the Chief Minister. This distrust stems from the fear of a repeat of the Maharashtra case.

JDU leaders have reportedly expressed that they do not want a similar situation to be repeated. This fear relates to the possibility of the BJP attempting to split the JDU if Nitish Kumar were to make a political flip in the future. In such matters, the Speaker is the "final arbiter" on the floor of the house regarding defections or disqualification petitions.

Yadav cited the Maharashtra example from June 2022, where the MVA government collapsed following a rebellion in the Shiv Sena. The subsequent Speaker, Rahul Narvekar of the BJP, sat on disqualification petitions for many months, highlighting the crucial role the Speaker plays in managing coalition changes.

The BJP’s insistence on the Home portfolio is also seen through the lens of distrust, as control over state probe agencies, coupled with central probe agencies, amounts to "double engine harassment." Retaining the Home post offers the JDU "some kind of cushioning against you know if not prosecution at least persecution."

Status quo likely

Despite the tensions, Yadav said he did not anticipate the swearing-in ceremony would be postponed, expecting the issues to be resolved. He reiterated the consensus for maintaining the status quo. There is always the option of allocating portfolios at a later stage or swearing in the new MLAs under a pro-tem speaker before electing the permanent Speaker.

He assessed that Nitish Kumar has limited maneuvering room due to the current numbers in the Bihar Assembly. The JDU has 85 seats, while the BJP has 89 seats. The NDA put together has 202 seats, while the NDA minus JDU is at 117, just five short of the halfway mark of 122.

Yadav argued that for Nitish Kumar to successfully flip again, he would need the support of all 35 Grand Alliance members and the five MLAs from Asaduddin Owaisi's party. Given the small groups in the opposition, it would be "much easier for the BJP to do its, you know, tricks with this block. Even before Mr. Nitish Kumar could make a move." Consequently, Nitish Kumar, as an "astute politician," realizes his weakened position and will likely "settle for uh whatever the BJP basically offers it."

BJP’s insistence, a pattern

Vivek Deshpande concurred, suggesting that as long as the BJP is "at the helm of affairs at the centre and has enough strings to pull in state politics as well," its insistence on having the Speaker's post and the Home Minister's post will continue. He noted that the BJP has pursued this strategy in almost all states where it is in a coalition government.

Deshpande spoke of the BJP’s reputation for "gobbling up even its alliance partners in the course of time," which creates insecurity among the allies. He cited the example of Maharashtra, where there are constant "tensions among all the three alliance partners"—the BJP, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP.

These tensions, he explained, are fueled by the BJP’s perceived future plan to execute operations against its alliance partners to become stronger on its own. For such operations, the Speaker and Home Minister posts are "very very crucial."

Nitish's limited options

Discussing Nitish Kumar’s ability to surprise, Yadav acknowledged that while he has won 85 seats, it is not a result he would be happy with, as he lacks the maneuvering room to pivot between alliances. He believes that neither side would want to "rock the boat" immediately, but friction could emerge later, perhaps after the next set of assembly elections.

Yadav also pointed out that the JDU of today is not the "old guard" loyal to Nitish Kumar, but is increasingly in the hands of leaders who are perceived as being close to the BJP, such as Sanjay Jha, Rajiv Ranjan Singh Lalan, and Vijay Kumar Chaudhary. Some have alleged the party has been "overrun by BJP plants."

Vivek Deshpande concluded that it is "very difficult for Nitish Kumar to make any such moves uh anytime soon. And not even in the distant future." Despite the JDU's increased assembly tally, he is "not as strong today as he was uh a couple of years ago" when he could execute political somersaults.

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