Bihar polls a popularity test for Modi-Nitish, but no alliance to have cakewalk

All eyes are now on next month's Bihar assembly polls, which are shaping up into a tough popularity test for the incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar — and for Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well.

With less than a month to go for the first phase of the two-phase polls, one thing is certain — the Bihar electoral battle is not going to be a cakewalk for either of the main rivals, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance).

Moreover, the outcome of these polls will show whether veteran politician Nitish Kumar, the 74-year-old longest serving chief minister of the state, continues to hold sway with the people of Bihar and retains his support base or not.

This election will also reveal the extent of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political clout after last year's Lok Sabha polls.

Nitish Kumar factor

Even political rivals admit that 'Nitish Kumar' is still a factor, if not a big factor, amid reports of strong anti-incumbency and his deteriorating physical and mental health.

Nitish Kumar’s face and his party’s nearly-assured 15 per cent vote share do matter, but this time it is widely being seen as his last election. Interestingly, while campaigning in the 2020 assembly polls, Nitish Kumar made an emotional appeal to voters for his party candidates as it was his last election. But, clearly, it was not.

Moreover, in election after election, Nitish’s JD(U), a major ally of the BJP-led NDA, has also relied on Modi’s popularity to win votes.

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Pushpender Kumar, former professor at Tata Institute of Social Science (TISS) in Patna, told The Federal that the Bihar election is no doubt a tough test for Nitish as well as Modi.

”Both have high stakes but it will also be a real test of Nitish’s credibility," he pointed out.

Banking on freebies

A political analyst told The Federal that the slew of freebies announced by Nitish Kumar in the last two-and-a-half months in the poll-bound state reflects his fear of a decline in popularity.

Sensing the growing resentment among the people, Nitish Kumar, contrary to his own stand against freebies, decided to give freebies to all sections of society and not just to women and youth, with the aim of minimising anti-incumbency, he added.

The most attractive freebies are the cash benefit of Rs 10,000, which will be deposited directly into the bank accounts of 2.77 crore women under the Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana (Chief Minister Women’s Employment Scheme).

”Instead of seeking votes in the name of Vikas, Sushashan and Kanoon Ka Raj ( development, good governance and rule of law), his signature three USPs once upon a time, Nitish Kumar now fully depends on freebies. This is a major change and exposes his declining popularity graph," said the analyst.

Furthermore, the veteran politician is not in a position to repeat NDA’s 2010 and Mahagathbandan’s 2015 performance, he says. (Nitish contested with the BJP-led NDA in 2010 and in the 2015 elections with the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan). The JD(U) leader is fighting to save his image this time.

JD(U) leaders, however, are confident that freebies will benefit them and pacify supporters and others to stand behind them and the party again.

Nitish magic dims

Despite being a chief minister for 20 years (since 2005, except for a few months in 2014-15), Nitish Kumar remains the preferred choice among sizeable sections of society, clearly indicating his popularity. But, this time, the much-hyped 'Nitish magic' that was the main factor in previous polls, is missing on the ground.

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It all started in the last polls itself when his popularity declined and his political credibility was questioned. This was one factor that resulted in the poor performance of his party, as it won only 43 of the 115 seats the party had contested.

The senior JD(U) leader's credibility took a knock when he changed sides repeatedly in the last one decade.

“Even a common man now questions his credibility that was damaged after he first joined hands with RJD in 2015 and then dumped them in 2017. And, once again, he joined hands with the BJP to form the government. Again, in 2022, he dumped the BJP and joined hands with RJD and he again joined hands with the BJP in January 2024. Is there any guarantee he will not change side after the polls again? This is the common refrain heard at street corners, at tea shops and markets," said the political analyst.

Meanwhile, political activist, Kanchan Bala, recalled how the BJP earlier had used the Nitish factor to fight against the RJD since the mid-90s till 2010.

BJP poll strategy

The BJP had banked on Nitish Kumar's clean image and projected him as the suitable face for the chief minister's post for the first time in 2005. This strategy clicked and it continued in the same vein till 2020.

In the 2025 polls, BJP's top leadership, however, was reluctant to declare Nitish as the chief ministerial face. Modi has been maintaining a total silence over the issue during his seven visits to Bihar so far this year. Instead, Modi had announced projects worth crores of rupees for Bihar during each visit to send a political message that he cares for development and to consolidate his support base.

The NDA will undoubtedly fight the election under the leadership of Nitish Kumar but it is not clear who will head the next government if the alliance wins.

JD(U) is downplaying this uncertainty with its campaign slogan: ”25 se 30 Phir Se Nitish” (Nitish again from 2025 to 2030).

No Nitesh-centric campaign

The party leaders may repeatedly claim that there would be no compromise on projecting Nitish for the top post.

JD(U) chief spokesperson Neeraj Kumar has even asserted that Nitish Kumar is the face of the NDA, and the NDA is contesting polls under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. This is an example to drive home that the Nitish brand is relevant.

However, one thing is certain in this election. There will be no Nitish-centric campaign in the upcoming Bihar poll campaign and the BJP-led NDA will instead heavily depend on Modi, whose leadership influence rich and poor alike, said sources in the party.

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Nitish will campaign along with Modi. According to BJP sources in Bihar, Modi will address 10 election rallies during the Bihar poll campaigning and this number is expected to go up to 15. Many BJP leaders will campaign as well but Modi will the party’s real star campaigner.

Professor Pushpender said Modi will invest his time and energy in the state because he has already revealed his focus through his action in the state.

Modi: The voter catcher

Talking about Modi's popularity, BJP leader and Bihar minister Prem Kumar said, ”This election is going to test Modi's popularity and he will try his level best to woo voters. The NDA’s performance will fully depend on Modi’s charisma and his popularity, which is driven by his hard work for infrastructure development — national highways, airports, railway upgrades, bridges in the country in the last 11 years. People in farms to villages, towns and cities accept this. Besides, his welfare schemes that reach out to people and his policies to face challenges impress people."

Nitish and his party, too, are harping on the Modi factor. Sensing the hard truth and the ground realities, Nitish Kumar, a seasoned politician, has been praising Modi, his works for the development of Bihar and his each and every decision, unlike in the past, said political observers.

”This is a clear picture of popularity of Modi in the state. As Modi is main influencer or voter catcher," said BJP leaders.

It appears Nitish and his party too are banking on Modi, who is the real face of the BJP-led NDA at the Centre and in the state,

According to BJP leaders, Modi got a huge response during his rallies in different districts and people have been lauding his role at the international level as well.

Close fight

If pre-election surveys are to be believed, the Bihar polls will be a close fight between NDA and the Grand Alliance, while a year-old Jan Suraj Party of Prashant Kishor is likely to create three-corner battles in dozens of the 243 seats which is up for grabs in this assembly elections.

Some surveys highlighted the fact that NDA has a little edge, while others pointed to a small advantage for the Mahagathbandhan. Notably, the last assembly polls was probably the closest-fought polls ever in Bihar.

NDA polled 37.26 per cent of the total votes, which was only 0.03 per cent more than the Mahagathbandhan that got 37.23 per cent.

What stunned one and all is that the difference amounted to barely 12,768 votes, which was declared to be one of the smallest gaps ever reported in any Bihar state assembly elections.