Bihar election: NDA surge reshapes power balance, Nitish's future under spotlight

In this episode of Capital Beat, panellists Prof Sanjay Kumar, Puneet Nicholas Yadav, and TK Rajalakshmi examined the sweeping lead of the NDA in the Bihar Assembly election and the shifting political equations within the coalition. The discussion centred on the scale of the BJP’s victory, the position of Nitish Kumar within the alliance, and the emerging concerns raised by opposition parties.

As vote counting neared nine hours, the NDA maintained a clear lead on 203 seats, with the BJP ahead in 92 and the JD(U) leading in 83. Chirag Paswan’s party held 19 leads, HAM stood at five, and the RLSP had four. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan held what was described as a “paltry lead,” struggling to stay near even 40 seats.

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The RJD led in 26 seats, Congress in five, CPI-ML in two, and CPM in one, marking a bleak outcome for the alliance. The panel noted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Nitish Kumar and NDA allies, stating that Bihar had voted for “sushasan” (good governance).

NDA numbers and early signals

The panel discussed visuals from Patna showing posters of Nitish Kumar across the city early in the day, contrasted by reports of an internal JD(U) tweet—later deleted—that declared, “Nitish Kumar Bihar ke mukhya mantri the aur rahenge.” The deletion was viewed as an early indicator of the uncertainty within the alliance.

The central question that framed the discussion was whether the BJP, now the single largest party, would let Nitish Kumar continue as chief minister. Puneet Nicholas Yadav responded that he had no confirmation about the deleted tweet.

Debate over Nitish Kumar's position

Yadav noted that JD(U)’s tally of 83 seats out of the 101 it contested was “not a bad figure,” but not one Nitish Kumar would personally be satisfied with. He pointed out that the BJP’s lead at 92 placed the party in a stronger position than the chief minister's party.

He added that JD(U)’s loyalists maintained that governance votes had gone to Nitish Kumar, including beneficiaries of the Mahila Rozgar Yojana. But he highlighted uncertainties: “Whether the BJP gives into that or at least… lets him be the chief minister and then eases him out… those are questions you will have clarity on tomorrow.”

He also stated that the LJP, with 19 seats, had already initiated informal lobbying for the deputy chief minister post, indicating early friction within the NDA.

'A problem of plenty' within NDA

TK Rajalakshmi described Nitish Kumar's situation as “not a very nice one,” noting that the BJP had “scored far ahead” of JD(U), placing him in a “compromised situation.” She said, “The NDA is going to face a problem of plenty.”

She observed that even without the LJP, the BJP-JD(U) combination could form the government, reducing the need to accommodate Chirag Paswan’s demands. At the same time, the LJP's return to the NDA fold and subsequent vote transfer had significantly boosted the ruling bloc.

Rajalakshmi noted that despite the NDA’s gains, the Mahagathbandhan had not suffered drastic vote share erosion compared with the 2020 Assembly polls, though it fell compared to its 2024 Lok Sabha vote share.

Ethical concerns and internal discomfort

The discussion highlighted concerns around the timing of the JD(U) government’s ₹10,000 transfer scheme, announced shortly before the Model Code of Conduct began. Rajalakshmi said these issues “will definitely… boomerang at some stage.”

She added that while BJP spokespersons credited the victory to the “labharthi model” and the prime minister, they avoided attributing the win to Nitish Kumar’s governance. She noted, “You can sense the tension… they have been at pains to keep on repeating that they are together.”

Rajalakshmi stressed that despite infrastructure development claims, issues of migration, unemployment, and poverty remained unaddressed. She said the NDA had “bought itself this election,” but underlying social and economic problems would persist.

Tug of war over the chief minister's post

Prof Sanjay Kumar said the NDA’s internal strain was visible even before votes were cast. He said the BJP had delayed an official announcement of its chief ministerial face despite repeated indications that Nitish Kumar would remain in the role.

He argued that the deletion of the JD(U) tweet confirmed that “all is not well” within the alliance. He added, “I don’t think that he is going to be there on that post for more than six months.”

Prof Kumar noted that the BJP, with support from the LJP, could form the government without JD(U), creating additional pressure on Nitish Kumar. He said Nitish Kumar had limited options, as joining hands with the RJD again was not viable.

Implications for national politics

Prof Kumar also suggested that the Bihar results sent a signal to other NDA allies, particularly in the context of the central government’s reliance on multiple partners. He said the outcome served as an indication to other allies against making excessive demands.

He added that the NDA might find it difficult to accommodate all constituents after securing more than 200 seats, especially with the LJP demanding appointments at the top.

Rajalakshmi agreed that Nitish Kumar’s position had weakened, observing that the BJP now appeared to be firmly “in the driver's seat” at both state and national levels.

Opposition shock and questions ahead

The conversation turned to the Mahagathbandhan’s response. Yadav said the Opposition was “quite shocked,” noting that even Tejashwi Yadav’s victory had been uncertain until late rounds of counting.

Also read | Cash transfers and other incentives likely key to NDA's sweep in Bihar

He highlighted early signs of internal blame-shifting, citing remarks from leaders within the Congress and RJD pointing fingers at one another. He said, “If this is going to be the introspection, it’s not going to lead these parties anywhere.”

He pointed to concerns over voter roll deletions and additions, calling these areas that opposition parties would likely scrutinise more closely.

Voices from the RJD

RJD’s Jayant Jigyasu joined the discussion, stating that the results were “not a people’s mandate but a managed mandate.” He argued that the election system had become a “travesty” and accused the Election Commission of undermining public trust.

Jigyasu said the Opposition would “go to the masses” and adopt direct outreach methods, adding that the high turnout in Bihar had been a “clear expression of revolt against bad governance.”

He argued that narratives around “Jungle Raj” were misleading, citing examples from the RJD’s governance period. He said the party could not match the level of “propaganda” from its opponents but would continue grassroots engagement.

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