Bihar Speaker election triggers power struggle between NDA allies JD(U) and BJP

The assembly session starting Monday will, as per convention, be presided over by the JD-U’s eighth term MLA, Narendra Narayan Yadav, as the Speaker Pro-Tem. Yadav will administer the oath of affirmation to all 243 newly-elected MLAs; a staggering 202 of them from the ruling NDA alone.

Vying for Speaker's post

There has been no announcement yet from the NDA on who it will pick as the Speaker, though nominations for the Speaker’s election, scheduled for the following day, have to be filed on Monday itself. The suspense over the ruling coalition’s candidate for the Speaker’s post, say sources, is largely because the BJP and the JD-U, which won 89 and 85 seats, respectively, in the November 14 results, remain adamant on having one of their own picked for the crucial role.

The grapevine in Patna is abuzz with speculation that the BJP has given the nod to its senior legislator Prem Kumar to file his nomination papers for the Speaker’s election. Signs that Kumar was the BJP’s choice for the role had come soon after the allies finalised the list of ministers joining the new Nitish cabinet.

A minister in the previous Nitish cabinet, Kumar, elected for the ninth consecutive time from his home turf of Gaya Town in the recent polls, did not figure among the 26 NDA legislators who were sworn-in as ministers on November 20.

The JD-U, on the other hand, is learnt to be pushing for either Narendra Narayan Yadav or sixth-term Jhajha MLA Damodar Rawat for the Speaker’s post. Sources close to the chief minister told The Federal that the JD-U had informed the BJP’s central leadership during discussions on portfolio allocation for the new ministers that if the BJP wished to take the home portfolio; it should be willing to give up its claim on the Speaker’s post.

Also read: Shifting power balance in Bihar’s cabinet formation leaves Nitish on weaker footing

JD-U insiders also argue that since the Bihar Legislative Council already has the BJP’s Awadhesh Narain Singh as its chairperson, the post of Assembly Speaker should not go to the same party and, instead, be returned to the JD-U.

However, the BJP, which emerged as the single-largest party in Bihar and also within the NDA, say sources, is unwilling. The party’s persistence with its claim on the Speaker’s post is also being viewed in Patna as its way to establish its domineering role in the alliance.

No room to manoeuvre

An alliance, at least at the state level, still has Nitish as its fulcrum. The JD-U had traditionally kept the Speaker’s post with itself since Nitish first drove the alliance to power in 2005.

With his party losing its senior partner tag in the alliance for the first time in 2020, when it was reduced to just 43 seats against the saffron party’s 74 MLAs, Nitish was forced to give into the BJP’s demand for the post, which then went to Vijay Kumar Sinha.

Sinha’s stint, though, was short-lived as in August 2022, Nitish made one of his infamous somersaults to dump the NDA and join the Grand Alliance. In January 2024, when Nitish returned to the NDA fold, the BJP once again prevailed in securing the Speaker’s post for itself, with its then veteran MLA Nand Kishore Yadav assuming charge the following month.

Also read: Bihar Cabinet: Nitish-Modi’s anti-dynasty stand undercut by surge of political heirs

The current dynamics within the NDA, sources say, are starkly different from the one that existed the previous five years. Unlike the previous decade, Nitish no longer has the manoeuvring room to switch alliances at ease whenever he finds the JD-U’s position undermined. The Opposition’s Grand Alliance, reduced to just 35 MLAs, simply lacks the numbers to allow Nitish and his party to form a stable government with a recalibrated coalition.

As such, while options may still exist before Nitish to throw tantrums against the BJP’s bullying tactics, the chief minister no longer has the luxury to exercise them with ease. The best that Nitish can hope for, say veteran JD-U loyalists, is to strike clever bargains with the BJP, as was the case with portfolio allocation for his new ministers.

Portfolio allocation

Though Nitish was forced to concede the home portfolio to his deputy CM, BJPs Samrat Chaudhary, the chief minister prevailed on the BJP top brass to allow him to retain control of the general administration and vigilance departments.

The arrangement allows Nitish to control transfers and postings of bureaucrats and police officials, and also maintain a tight leash on select probe agencies by keeping the vigilance department with him, while Chaudhary is in-charge of law and order.

The JD-U also managed to wrest the finance portfolio, always held by the BJP in the previous NDA government is now steered by Nitish’s oldest confidante and ninth-term Supaul MLA Bijendra Prasad Yadav. Though NDA leaders believed that this is a bad bargain made by the CM since he will now be held directly responsible for fulfilling the massive claims expected to be made on the Bihar treasury, given the litany of populist pre-poll schemes and post-poll promises Nitish has unveiled.

Drastic step

A section of the JD-U old guard suggests that if the BJP digs in its heels over keeping the Speaker’s post, Nitish could explore the drastic step of fielding a candidate from his ranks too and forcing an election.

In such a scenario, though unlikely by the JD-U’s own admission, the chief minister may find himself reaching out yet again for help to the 35-MLA bloc of the Grand Alliance as well as to the five MLAs from Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM. He may want them to help him secure more votes than the BJP nominee can hope to get with the help of NDA partners LJP-RV, HAM and RLM, which have 19, five and four MLAs, respectively, aside from the BJP’s own strength of 89 MLAs.

Also read: Nitish 10.0: Chief minister or compromise minister? | Talking Sense With Srini

JD-U sources say even the hint of Nitish considering such a possibility could spook the BJP, which would want to avoid a public spectacle of differences within the alliance so soon after a stunning poll triumph.

However, flexing muscles with the BJP this way could also backfire at Nitish, admit sources, as it would dent the public perception about the camaraderie within his government and, more importantly, could trigger the BJP into taking a more belligerent attitude in dealing with Nitish and his party in the immediate future.