Can Rahul’s Voter Adhikar Yatra reshape Bihar's political arithmetic? | Capital Beat

Six days into Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s 3,000-km Voter Adhikar Yatra in Bihar, massive crowds have been lining the roads and joining his convoy, raising a central political question: will the turnout translate into votes? On The Federal’s Capital Beat, senior journalists Ashok Mishra and Faizan Ahmad analysed the ground impact of the yatra, the emotional appeal of voter disenfranchisement, and the broader electoral implications for the NDA in Bihar.

Core electoral issue

Rahul Gandhi’s campaign focuses squarely on the alleged deletion of over 65 lakh voters from Bihar’s electoral rolls. The issue has struck a deep chord with rural and marginalised communities. Faizan stated that the allegation of “vote theft” has turned into a major emotional trigger, resonating especially with the poor and young voters.

Unlike other long-standing issues such as unemployment or migration, the fear of being disenfranchised has gripped communities across caste lines. People reportedly fear losing not only voting rights but also access to welfare benefits like ration cards and land rights. This, panelists noted, is propelling large crowds to join the yatra daily.

The Election Commission has denied the voter deletion claims, calling them misleading. On August 3, it countered senior Congress leader P Chidambaram’s statements on voter removal in Tamil Nadu, saying the claims were “baseless and incorrect.” However, the Opposition has continued to amplify the issue as part of its campaign strategy.

Spontaneous support

Mishra noted that the Voter Adhikar Yatra is drawing what appears to be spontaneous participation. The crowd comprises citizens rather than party workers transported in for rallies. “People are not being brought in buses or tractors. They are coming on their own, reacting emotionally to the message,” he said.

This surge in grassroots support, the panelists observed, has energised the INDIA bloc, particularly the Congress and RJD. The presence of Tejashwi Yadav alongside Rahul Gandhi is further cementing the caste-based vote consolidation, particularly among EBCs, Dalits, and Pasmanda Muslims.

Both journalists agreed that this development is a warning sign for the NDA. The political alliance, which has relied on social engineering since 2005, now faces a potential erosion of its support base among marginalised communities.

NDA counters narrative

In response to the INDIA bloc’s rising momentum, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has ramped up his campaign in Bihar. During his recent visit to Munger and Gaya, Modi invoked familiar themes, alleging the INDIA bloc was protecting “infiltrators”. He also defended the recently introduced Bill, which proposes that the prime minister, chief ministers, or ministers can be removed if they are detained for 30 consecutive days on charges of corruption or serious offences.

Mishra described the Bill, which mandates the removal of a prime minister or chief minister arrested on serious criminal charges, as a “grab order.” He said the timing and framing of the Bill indicate a potential weaponisation of legal provisions against Opposition-ruled states. The intention behind the Bill, he argued, has sparked public concern, as it could enable the central government to destabilise non-BJP state governments.

Despite these efforts, the ruling NDA appears to be facing stiff ground-level competition from the yatra-led mobilisation.

SIR adds to voter anxiety

The Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise, aimed at updating electoral rolls, continues to be a source of panic in flood-affected areas of Bihar. The Supreme Court has allowed Aadhaar cards to be accepted as valid proof to reclaim voting rights, but ground realities present logistical barriers.

Villagers displaced by river erosion and floods in districts like Rohtak and Bhojpur are unable to access BLOs or submit forms. Mishra highlighted that with entire villages submerged, residents camping on embankments are now more concerned about food and shelter than voter documentation.

As the end-of-August deadline for the SIR process nears, restoring the deleted names remains an uphill task. Many residents fear they will be left out of the upcoming electoral process, further intensifying the political and emotional stakes.

Congress eyes revival

The Congress party sees the yatra as an opportunity to regain relevance in Bihar’s political landscape. Both panelists observed that while Tejashwi Yadav is gaining from Rahul Gandhi’s presence, the Congress is also leveraging the yatra to project itself as a serious contender in the state.

The optics, according to the discussion, favour the INDIA bloc for now. With leaders like MK Stalin and Hemant Soren expected to join the yatra in the coming days, its visibility is set to increase further. Faizan said the planned mega rally in Patna on September 1 will act as a momentum builder for the alliance ahead of polls.

As the yatra enters its final days, questions remain about whether its emotional appeal and crowd power will translate into electoral success. Panelists noted that earlier predictions of a comfortable NDA win have now been upended. With both alliances currently locked in a 50-50 contest, the final outcome may depend on how long the INDIA bloc can sustain this momentum.

The emergence of third players like Prashant Kishor, reported to be gaining in popularity, may also influence the final electoral arithmetic. With election dates expected to be announced in September, the next few weeks will be critical in defining Bihar’s political future.

The content above has been transcribed from video using a fine-tuned AI model. To ensure accuracy, quality, and editorial integrity, we employ a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) process. While AI assists in creating the initial draft, our experienced editorial team carefully reviews, edits, and refines the content before publication. At The Federal, we combine the efficiency of AI with the expertise of human editors to deliver reliable and insightful journalism.