Capital beat | With an eye on CM’s chair, is Chirag set to unsettle Nitish Kumar?

In this episode of Capital Beat, senior journalists Ashok Mishra and Faizan Ahmad decode the political stir caused by Union Minister and LJP (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan, who has publicly declared his intent to contest the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections. With hints at a chief ministerial ambition and past precedence of denting JD(U)'s numbers, the discussion probes whether Chirag is poised to unsettle Nitish Kumar and challenge his hold within the NDA.

Chirag’s CM pitch

Chirag's declaration in Raipur that his sole political goal is "Bihar first, Bihari first" is being read as a strategic move. According to Mishra, Chirag has been signalling this for months, but his recent statements have become more direct. He is likely to contest from Nawada and hopes for a significant seat share within the NDA. If the JD(U) underperforms and Chirag secures over 20 seats, the BJP may project him as the chief ministerial face, emulating the Maharashtra model.

Chirag had contested solo in 2020, fielding 137 candidates, winning just one seat but damaging JD(U)’s prospects in South Bihar. His 6 per cent vote share, according to Mishra, split the NDA vote and indirectly benefited the RJD-Congress-CPI(ML) alliance.

Nitish camp nervous?

Mishra pointed out that the BJP has not yet reaffirmed Nitish Kumar as the chief ministerial face for 2025. This, coupled with Chirag’s momentum and JD(U) scarring from 2020, has injected nervousness within Nitish’s camp. Interestingly, Nitish’s son Nishant Kumar has been vocal about wanting his father declared as the chief ministerial candidate and is expected to campaign alongside him.

JD(U)’s counter-strategy

Ahmad said that despite Chirag’s ambitions, he recently reassured the media that Nitish Kumar will remain the chief ministerial face of the NDA. However, Faizan interpreted Chirag’s return to Bihar politics as a strategic attempt to revive his father Ram Vilas Paswan’s legacy, possibly beyond Dalit leadership.

Faizan noted that Chirag had met Nitish Kumar recently, and public posturing remains cordial. Yet, given the damage inflicted by LJP in 2020, JD(U) is unlikely to fully trust Chirag. Faizan warned, “In 2020, Chirag halved Nitish. This time, they say, he may wipe him out.”

Seat-sharing worries

Mishra and Faizan both agreed that the real power struggle will lie in seat negotiations. Chirag is demanding more than 30 seats, but may be given around 20–25. If he repeats a strong showing, the BJP might back him over Nitish.

JD(U) sources say they are alert and ready to retaliate politically if the BJP tries to undermine Nitish. Mishra noted that caste equations remain central, and voter cross-voting could intensify if alliances fracture.

New entrants, new risks

Mishra added that the NDA’s composition is now more complex. New entrants like Upendra Kushwaha and Jeetan Ram Manjhi will also seek a seat share. This could lead to NDA partners undercutting one another. Talks with VIP leader Mukesh Sahani are reportedly underway but inconclusive.

Faizan suggested that Chirag’s presence this time, unlike in 2020, will be from within the NDA. His performance will determine his future—whether he remains a central minister or shifts fully to Bihar politics. “He won’t come just to be an MLA,” said Faizan.

Nishant Kumar’s rise?

Another subplot is Nitish’s son, Nishant. According to Mishra, the JD(U) is planning to field him from Nalanda and present him as Nitish’s political heir. His introduction to public rallies will likely begin this campaign season.

Both panellists agreed that Chirag’s challenge may be subtle, but it’s real. JD(U) is preparing its cadre, and the BJP’s silence on Nitish’s chief ministerial candidature only fuels speculation.

BJP’s balancing act

Mishra underscored that upper-caste BJP voters may have reservations about Nitish Kumar. BJP’s decision—to support Chirag or stick with Nitish—could be decisive. If the BJP attempts to sideline Nitish, the JD(U) may retaliate in select phases.

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