Final chapter for JD(U) and Nitish Kumar in Bihar? | Talking Sense with Srini

With Bihar gearing up for another high-stakes assembly election, the state’s ever-complex caste equations are once again at the centre of political strategies. As the INDIA bloc pushes for a nationwide caste census and social justice, and the NDA banks on its social engineering and Modi’s charisma, political observers are watching closely.

In this conversation, The Federal’s Editor-in-Chief S Srinivasan breaks down what’s at stake in Bihar’s political battlefield, why Nitish Kumar may be facing his toughest test yet, and whether new players like Prashant Kishor and Chirag Paswan could disrupt the established order.

Is the 2025 Bihar election shaping up to be another Mandal versus Mandir battle? Will the Mandal plank still resonate with voters?

I know journalists love catchy binaries like Mandal versus Mandir—it’s an old label, and you’ve brought it back.

But Bihar is the home turf of Mandal politics, which has now been reframed as the social justice movement that Rahul Gandhi is attempting to lead. Historically, the MY (Muslim-Yadav) alliance has been the bedrock of RJD’s electoral strategy. Lalu Prasad won election after election with this formula, bolstered by support from MBCs (Most Backward Classes).

The old Mandal vs Mandir dynamic may reappear, but how these combinations perform on the ground over the next few months will determine the final outcome.

Lalu used to appeal to EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes) with vivid public storytelling, like riding buffaloes or invoking genie niklega—a magical symbol of empowerment. But that narrative has weakened over the past decade. Now, while the MY base remains with RJD and Congress, it’s not enough. They need to win back EBCs, which is their focus now.

Watch | In Bihar elections, why India Bloc has the edge I Interview

Meanwhile, the BJP has borrowed heavily from the UP playbook. Just like they chipped away at the MY bloc in Uttar Pradesh by targeting sub-castes beneath the dominant Yadavs, they’ve done the same in Bihar—reaching out to EBCs and forming a potent alliance with JD(U), HAM (Jitan Ram Manjhi’s party), and Chirag Paswan. Add Modi’s personal appeal, and this is a formidable coalition.

On the other side, the INDIA alliance—RJD, Congress, CPI(ML), and recent entrants like VIP and Mukesh Sahani’s party—is also quite strong on paper. So the old Mandal vs Mandir dynamic may reappear, but how these combinations perform on the ground over the next few months will determine the final outcome.

Given Nitish Kumar's two-decade reign, is this election more of a referendum on him? Do you see anti-incumbency or other vulnerabilities surfacing?

I believe this may well be the final chapter for JD(U) and Nitish Kumar. He’s been Chief Minister for about 20 years, and after such a long run, anti-incumbency is inevitable.

Moreover, there are reports of declining health and possible memory lapses. While I can’t confirm that, it’s clear that he’s not the Nitish of old. He started out as the “Sushasan Babu”—a clean, efficient administrator. But over the years, his image has been dented by frequent political flip-flops, earning him the nickname “Paltu Ram.”

Law and order has also become a concern. A recent daylight shooting of a businessman in Patna shocked people. It evoked memories of Lalu’s “Jungle Raj,” where fear and lawlessness were widespread. Alarmingly, this was the second murder in the same family within a few years.

Beyond crime, the larger question is: What has changed under Nitish? Bihar still sees mass migration—75 lakh people leave every year in search of work. That’s 7% of the state’s population. Has anything fundamentally improved in 20 years?

Nitish Kumar has long touted his pro-women policies—prohibition, free bicycles, job quotas. Do these still give him an edge with women voters?

Yes, in the past, those initiatives worked well. He introduced 30% reservations for women in panchayat seats and similar quotas for state government jobs. Bicycles for schoolgirls improved access to education. Prohibition, though controversial, has found support among women who appreciate the reduced alcohol-related violence.

Also read | Bihar voter roll revision: Why EC move could stir up the melting pot

These policies earned him significant female backing in previous elections. But whether that goodwill endures in 2025 is uncertain. A lot has changed, and while women may still be sympathetic, whether they’ll actively vote for him remains to be seen.

The EBC vote is considered crucial. Are they leaning toward any specific alliance this time?

It’s a fragmented group, not homogeneous. So it’s hard to predict which way they'll go.

But significant moves have been made. The VIP party has moved toward the Mahagathbandhan. RJD appointed Mangilal Mandal, a cobbler by caste and an EBC, as party president—a first. He’s been vocal about how no party has elevated an EBC to such a position.

The Congress and Rahul Gandhi are also trying to woo these voters, emphasising inclusion and equity. So there’s a concerted push from the opposition to win back EBCs. If the RJD manages to break into this bloc again, along with their MY base, it could make them competitive.

What are your thoughts on Prashant Kishor's entry into Bihar politics? Could he become a third force?

Prashant Kishor’s pitch is rooted in Gandhian idealism. He’s invoking symbols like the Indigo movement to position himself as a reformist.

But Bihar’s politics is deeply caste-driven. Unless he can craft a caste coalition, managerial jargon and idealism may not resonate. It's a real test for him—can an ideology-based movement succeed in a state where social arithmetic dominates?

While women may still be sympathetic toward Nitish Kumar, whether they’ll actively vote for him remains to be seen.

He’s untested electorally. So whether he disrupts the binary or fizzles out remains to be seen. At this stage, it’s too early to say if he can be a serious third force.

Chirag Paswan seems to be gaining traction. Is he a potential disruptor or just a regional factor?

Chirag’s political trajectory is fascinating. His father, Ram Vilas Paswan, was a master strategist—always in power, always reading the political winds accurately.

Initially, Chirag was seen as someone desperate for BJP’s attention, even lavishing praise on Modi without much return. BJP backed his uncle, Pashupati Kumar Paras, instead. But in the 2024 general elections, Chirag turned the tables, winning five out of five seats with a 100% strike rate.

Watch | EC’s Bihar SIR inconsistent with law, raises many questions: PDT Achary

That gives him momentum. He’s now a Union Minister and is being seen as a potential disruptor. Some speculate he could become Bihar’s Eknath Shinde, reshaping alliances from within.

But his influence is geographically limited. The Paswan vote is concentrated in a few pockets. For him to be a kingmaker, he needs a good number of assembly seats—which depends on how tickets are distributed.

BJP will want to be in the driver’s seat with at least 110–120 seats of their own. Their model, like in Maharashtra, is to keep allies on board but ensure they remain dominant.

Chirag’s role will depend on whether he can replicate his Lok Sabha success in the assembly elections. That’s a tall order. We’ll have to wait and see.

The content above has been generated using a fine-tuned AI model. To ensure accuracy, quality, and editorial integrity, we employ a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) process. While AI assists in creating the initial draft, our experienced editorial team carefully reviews, edits, and refines the content before publication. At The Federal, we combine the efficiency of AI with the expertise of human editors to deliver reliable and insightful journalism.