By invoking 'infiltration' in Bihar, is Modi making a mistake again?

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi has chosen to play the “Ghuspaithiya” (infiltrator) card ahead of the upcoming elections in Bihar, political observers are of the view that he has not learnt from his Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) defeat in the Jharkhand Assembly polls last year.

The prime minister had made infiltration a major poll plank in the Santhal Parganas region of Bihar’s southern neighbour to woo the tribals to counter the ruling alliance led by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. But the BJP produced its worst electoral performance in the state since its formation in 2000.

Modi is at it again

However, when Modi raised the issue during his rally in Purnea on Monday (September 15), it became clear that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was in no mood to alienate its old polarisation model of politics in Bihar’s Seemanchal region ahead of the crucial polls. It could also be a precursor to the BJP’s plan in next year’s Assembly polls in the border states of West Bengal and Assam, where infiltration has been a burning issue.

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But why did Modi, who generally positions his political rhetoric on development, choose to focus on infiltration instead of promises like turning the Seemanchal region in the north-eastern corner of Bihar into a prosperous zone? The PM even said in Purnea that it was his guarantee that action would be taken against the infiltrators, but did not reveal any official data his government has collected to back the claim.

A 'jumla' without data?

One observer has said the issue of infiltration raised by Modi before the elections could be a mere ‘jumla’ (empty talk) since it is difficult to substantiate such a claim without solid data.

Soroor Ahmed, a political analyst from Bihar, asked who has stopped the Modi government from coming out with full official data on the infiltrators, tracing them and driving them out. He said the government is handling the issue in a way to divert people’s attention from basic issues.

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”It is a hackneyed issue, and Modi has said nothing new. The people of the Seemanchal have been used to hearing such speeches for four decades now. In fact, they are now questioning the NDA leaders as to what they have been doing for over a decade when they are in power both in the state and the Centre. So, the latest statement of Modi is likely to backfire, as it happened in Jharkhand,” he told The Federal.

BJP's infiltrator plank failed in Jharkhand

Modi has also accused Bihar’s Opposition parties, such as the Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), of protecting infiltrators, something that he had also done in Jharkhand during last year’s election. During a campaign for the state’s election in November 2024, he even mocked the JMM-led alliance as ‘Ghuspaithiya Bandhan’ (infiltrators’ alliance), which supported infiltrators from Bangladesh.

Even Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma, who camped in Jharkhand during the election, alleged that Bangladeshi infiltrators were making the tribals a minority and threatening their daughters’ security and land.

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But the BJP’s strategy failed to convince the voters, as the election results showed. In Santhal Parganas, for example, the BJP and its ally All Jharkhand Students Union fell flat as they could win only one out of 18 seats in the region.

Veteran JMM leader and legislator Stephen Marandi said the BJP’s ‘infiltrators’ plank could cut no ice with the tribal voters.

‘’People of Bihar likely to follow the path of Jharkhand on upcoming polls,’’ he told The Federal.

Are 'infiltrator' voters really there?

What is striking is that contrary to widespread propaganda and rumours that a large number of infiltrators, particularly from Bangladesh, have made their way into the voters’ list in the Seemanchal region, not a single ‘infiltrator’ voter’s name was found and deleted from the draft electoral rolls released by the Election Commission (EC) in August after the first phase of its controversial special intensive revision exercise was completed in the month before.

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In July, during the height of the SIR exercise, a report surfaced citing unnamed field-level officials of the commission associated with the process, claiming that infiltrators’ names were found in the voters’ lists in the Seemanchal region bordering Nepal. This triggered a fresh debate over the alleged presence of infiltrators in the state’s electoral rolls.

A senior EC official in Bihar later said, ”Not a single voter name was deleted on the ground of alleged infiltrator from Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar. During the SIR, no such voters were identified and traced.”

The official added that while 7.6 lakh voters’ names were omitted in Seemanchal, they were not on the grounds of infiltration.

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”The EC has deleted names of voters who were found dead, permanently shifted elsewhere, absent and have their names in two places," he said.

Right-wing camps eye polarisation

The BJP, its mentor Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), and other right-wing organisations such as the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) and Bajrang Dal have made constant attempts to stoke fears among the local people of Seemachal against Bangladeshi infiltrators for polarisation.

Since the region has a sizeable Muslim population of 47 per cent as against the state average of 17.7 per cent, the effort towards creating a polarisation narrative is not difficult to understand. The huge Bengali-speaking Muslims in the region are being dubbed as Bangladeshis to consolidate the Hindu vote bank consisting of non-Muslim linguistic and ethnic groups.

Often, topics such as cow smuggling and slaughter, love jihad, the increasing Muslim and decreasing Hindu population, besides alleged illegal immigration from Bangladesh, steal the focus.

Kishanganj has 68 per cent Muslim population, while Katihar has 44 per cent, Araria 43 per cent and Purnea 38 per cent.

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While Seemanchal comprises flood-prone districts such as Purnea, Katihar, Araria and Kishanganj, and is economically backward with problems such as high multi-dimensional poverty, unemployment and migration, it is the issue of illegal infiltration, given the region’s porous border with the neighbouring country of Nepal and West Bengal, which has a boundary touching Bangladesh, that is found more appropriate by the saffron camps.

Zafar Alam, a schoolteacher by profession, said it is not something new for them.

”We have been facing the baseless tag of infiltrators (mainly Bangladeshi) for years. It is easy to target Seemanchal for having a large Muslim population on mere suspicion,” he said.

He is not the only one in the impoverished region to think on those lines.

"Whenever the infiltrators issue comes up, automatically the name of Seemanchal with sizeable Muslims hits the media headlines," said Ghalib Kaleem, an activist.

Although Seemanchal is a stronghold of the Opposition Congress and RJD, which account for 24 Assembly seats that hold the key to power formation in Patna.

In the 2020 Assembly polls, the ruling NDA won half of them — 12 seats after a strong entry of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen led by Asaduddin Owaisi in the polls.

The Lok Sabha elections in 2024 saw the two competing alliances doing well in Seemanchal. The Congress won Kishanganj and Katihar, while the BJP won Araria. In Purnea, Pappu Yadav, an Independent candidate backed by the Congress, won.