Nitish may pay the price as Chirag, Manjhi spar over Bihar law and order

He is also at loggerheads with another ally of the NDA, Union minister and Dalit leader Jitan Ram Manji, over whether the rule of law or ‘jungle raj’ prevails in Bihar. His scathing comments on the 'lawlessness' in Bihar have stung Nitish Kumar where it hurts most.

Interestingly, the BJP leadership has remained silent on Chirag's caustic remarks. This development has raised a pertinent question — is it a sign of cracks in the ruling NDA or something else?

Chirag-Manjhi feud

After a spate of murders and rapes in the state surfaced, a war of words also broke out between Chirag and Manjhi. The two — both Union ministers, Dalit leaders, and NDA allies — disagreed over the state government’s claim of rule of law and sushasan (good governance). While Chirag questioned it, Manjhi insisted all was well.

Also read: Bihar election opinion poll: ‘Tejashwi set to edge out Nitish; Prashant Kishor rising force’

Downplaying the statistics, Manjhi said he is proud of Nitish's good governance and being part of his government. A few days back, Manjhi’s son Santosh Suman, who is a minister in the Nitish cabinet, also taunted Chirag, saying it has now become fashionable to make statements on crime.

Even as sceptics said Manjhi and Santosh were defending Nitish to garner his support ahead of NDA seat-sharing talks, the feud has a history. Manjhi did not share a good relationship with Chirag’s father Ram Vilas Paswan, the former Union minister and founder of the party, who died in 2020.

Repeated attacks

It was after the sensational and high-profile killing of prominent businessman Gopal Khemka that Chirag first publicly lambasted the Nitish government. The businessman was shot dead at point-blank range by assailants on a bike near his house in the heart of Patna.

Later, when five armed criminals in broad daylight shot dead a murder convict on parole, Chirag said murders have become a daily occurrence, and that the 'morale' of criminals is sky high.

Earlier too, the LJP (R) leader commented that crimes like murders, rape, loot, robberies and kidnapping are occurring one after another in the state, and the police and administration appear to have completely given up.

However, what has raised eyebrows is that all the top BJP leaders, both in Delhi and in Bihar, are silent over Chirag’s verbal attacks. Bihar BJP, known to be vocal against the Opposition, has not once tried to rein in Chirag.

Earlier this week, though, Chirag made a mini U-turn, saying Nitish will take oath as Bihar CM again later this year. Sources in the JD(U) told The Federal the party may have nudged the BJP to rein in Chirag.

Not a battle for Dalit leadership

The Chirag-Manjhi skirmishes, meanwhile, could be part of a political fight for the leadership of Dalits, who constitute 19.65 per cent of the total population in Bihar.

There are 22 Scheduled Castes in the state, whose loyalty is divided among the different parties. Chirag enjoys the overwhelming support of the Paswan community, locally known as Dusadh, a militant Dalit community that is 5.31 per cent of the state population.

Watch | Final chapter for JD(U) and Nitish Kumar in Bihar? | Talking Sense with Srini

Another Dalit caste, called Ravidas (locally known as Chamar), make up 5.25 per cent and a large section of them prefer to vote for Mayawati’s BSP. Manjhi's support base is among the Musahar community, who are landless and form the poorest-of-the-poor in Bihar. They constitute 3 per cent of the state population. Musahars are socially and economically far weaker and more marginalised than the Paswans.

'Payback time' for Chirag

Many political leaders in Bihar feel Chirag is hitting out at Nitish to settle old scores as well. When the LJP split in 2021, Chirag blamed Nitish's JD(U) for engineering the divide after his father’s death. Five of the six party MPs then elected Chirag's uncle Pasupati Kumar Paras as the new leader of the parliamentary party.

Since then, Chirag has been a sharp critic of Nitish despite both of them being part of the NDA.

A senior LJP(R) leader told The Federal Chirag has not forgotten the events of 2021. However, the leader refused to comment on Chirag Paswan’s actions in the 2020 Bihar assembly polls.

A JD(U) leader told The Federal that Nitish was deeply hurt over his party's poor performance due to the 'damage' caused by Chirag that year. The JD(U)’s tally fell to 43 while the BJP won 74 seats. The leader recalled how the LJP, then led by Chirag, claimed that the party had an ideological tussle with the JD(U), not with the BJP.

Watch: Capital beat | With an eye on CM’s chair, is Chirag set to unsettle Nitish Kumar?

Chirag refused to contest polls under Nitish's leadership and fielded candidates against the JD(U) but not against the BJP.

Highly ambitious

The latest attack on the Nitish government is being widely seen in political circles as a well-calculated political move by the highly ambitious Chirag. The LJP(R) leader is clearly looking to play a bigger role in state politics, with his party projecting him as the future chief minister of Bihar.

According to sources in the LJP(R), Chirag has handed over a list of 41 seats the party wants to contest to the BJP’s high command, ahead of seat-sharing talks. If Chirag does not get what he wants, his party may opt to contest on its own, like it did in the 2020 assembly polls.

Notably, the Chirag-led LJP(R) strike rate was 100 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Will he go it alone?

Manjhi has already cautioned Chirag not to repeat the 2020 policy and strike out on his own in the 2025 polls. JD(U) leaders also privately told The Federal that the party fears that Chirag will not join forces with the NDA as an ally.

BJP sources admitted to The Federal that the party is not ready to give more than 20 seats to LJP(R) because its major ally JD(U) is keen to contest in not less than 110 out of the 243 seats. Moreover, seats had to be shared with other allies such as Manjhi’s HAM and Upender Kushwaha’s RLP, the sources pointed out.

The BJP, which is a national party and the single largest party in the Bihar assembly as of now, will have to contest more than 100 seats. On the challenge of seat allocation, a BJP leader said, “Everything will be sorted smoothly by Union Home Minister Amit Shah.”

Prashant Kishor factor

Meanwhile, Chirag has been openly praising Prashant Kishor, election strategist turned emerging politician, and de facto chief of Jan Suraj Party, which is making a strong pitch to merge as a new political force in Bihar. Earlier this week, Chirag, said he appreciated Kishor since is playing an honest role in Bihar politics.

That statement triggered a buzz that Chirag may join hands with Prashant Kishor in the upcoming polls.

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, who is also leader of Opposition in the state, took a dig at Chirag recently, saying that only making statements on crime and lawlessness in Bihar will not work. Why is Chirag remaining Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 'Hanuman', he asked.

Spoiler for Nitish

According to a political analyst, Chirag Paswan is just playing his cards right in the current political situation in Bihar.

“Sensing BJP’s inability to go along with the JD(U), Chirag Paswan is flexing his muscles. He knows the BJP is in dire need of his votes at this point of time and it cannot afford to ignore or sideline him. In 2020, he proved that if he cannot win, he can at least make the task difficult for the NDA, which then ended up winning with a slender margin,” added the analyst.

A political observer in Patna suggested the BJP could be using Chirag to discredit Nitish's ‘Sushashan Babu’ image ahead of the Assembly polls.

"Till the elections, the BJP is not taking any risk as the NDA will go to polls under Nitish’s leadership. Chirag has been given the job to target Nitish. This is part of their game plan, which they also did in the last assembly poll when Chirag's party contested alone to damage JD(U)’s prospects but they were unsuccessful that time,” the political observer added.

The BJP may have further roped in Manjhi to support Nitish to maintain a balance in public, he added. But the real overall design appears to be to put Nitish in the dock.