Rahul’s Bihar yatra gives hope to cadres but will it be enough to revive Congress?

The massive gatherings and enthusiastic response seen during the just-concluded Voter Adhikar Yatra led by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has given fresh hope to his party cadres in poll-bound Bihar.

Rahul’s 1300-km Yatra, covering 20 districts in two weeks, was seemingly focused on exposing the alleged conspiracy of “vote chori” (vote stealing) through the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls by the Election Commission (EC), allegedly at the behest of the ruling BJP-led NDA.

But Congress leaders, workers, and supporters are upbeat that it will help the party regain some lost ground in the state, just like it did during the Bharat Jodo Yatra.

Is the party waking up from slumber?

In over three decades, this was the first time that a top Congress leader took to the streets in Bihar to directly reach out to people over such a long period. True, Rahul did cover parts of Bihar — 425 km in four days — in the rather hurried Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra in January 2024. But the mobilization on the ground was no match for the Voter Adhikar Yatra.

The recent rally is widely being seen as a real attempt to galvanise party men, strengthen the party’s organisational structure, and widen its support base by regaining faith and confidence of those who hopped over to other parties for one reason or the other.

The Yatra, which started from Sasaram on August 17 and ended in Patna today (September 1) after passing through 21 major points, received a warm welcome from people in both rural and urban pockets. The gatherings on both sides of the roads were massive and spontaneous — they supported the Yatra braving high humidity, a scorching sun, or heavy rain.

Also read: Congress counters EC’s ‘no objection’ claim, says it lodged 89 lakh complaints on SIR

Rahul’s “Belchi” moment

“Rahul’s aura was such that, throughout the route, people were desperate to get a glimpse of him. It appeared that he could connect with people and reach out to them with his narrative. This is a good beginning and a positive step to change the people’s perception of the Congress. However, it is too early to talk about a revival of the party. The Congress has to work hard and has a long way to go to achieve it,” said a professional communication expert who is known to be a Congress sympathizer and was part of the Yatra.

A seasoned political observer in the state felt it was Rahul’s “Belchi” moment. Rahul’s grandmother Indira Gandhi, ousted from power, did something similar in Bihar in the same month of August nearly five decades ago, in1977.

Her vehicle was stuck in mud, but Indira insisted on trudging ahead on foot to her destination, but later took an elephant ride to Belchi village in Patna district — only to meet some poor Dalit families some of whose members had been burnt alive. Her dogged persistence had helped change the people’s perception of the party and her, helping her return to power three years later.

The observer said Rahul has shown the same persistence — determined to directly connect and communicate with the people, mainly deprived and marginalised sections of society, and fighting for their democratic rights.

Repeated Bihar visits

Rahul did not undertake the Yatra alone or solely on behalf of the party — the Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha was accompanied by RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, the Leader of Opposition in the Bihar Assembly, and leaders of Left parties and other allies of the Magathbandhan, too.

But the local party leadership used Rahul’s presence at the ground level to activate its grassroots workers and expand its base by mobilising people. “We are sure that Rahul-ji’s Yatra to fight for the democratic rights of peoples will be a turning point in reviving the Congress in the state,” said Bihar Congress president Rajesh Ram, who accompanied him.

Another senior Congress leader pointed out that the party high command has paid special attention to the party in Bihar in recent months, as Rahul has visited it half a dozen times this year already.

Also read: SC on Bihar SIR: Confusion 'largely trust issue', political parties should 'activate' themselves

Organizational changes

The party leadership also made certain organizational changes earlier this year when it appointed a young and energetic Krishna Allavaru in charge of the Congress in Bihar. Unlike previous in-charges, like socialist-turned-Congress-leader Bhakta Charan Das and Mohan Prakash, Allavaru, considered close to Rahul, warned against factionalism soon after taking over and took up the task of strengthening the party organization at the grassroots.

Allavaru has been camping in the state and closely monitoring the party’s functioning. Allavaru has also been maintaining a distance from the RJD and Lalu Parasad to create an independent space for the Congress in the state.

“Congress is not only facing an issue of weak organization; it also lacks a powerful local leader who should be aggressive and articulate to match leaders within its own alliance and rival alliance,” the Congress leader added.

After Allavaru, the Congress appointed Rajesh Ram, a Dalit and two-time party MLA, as the state party president — seem as a step towards wooing the weaker sections. Besides, the party reconstituted the Congress district committees by giving a proper representation to OBCs, EBCs, Dalits, and Muslims.

Focus on youth, Dalits

This apart, the top party leadership has put forward the face of former JNUSU president Kanhaiya Kumar, an articulate youth leader, as part of its strategy to garner the support of youths to strengthen the party. In March-April this year, Kanhaiya led the “Palayan Roko Naukri Do Yatra” (stop migration, give jobs) in Bihar to focus on issues that directly affect youths.

In another step to woo youths, the Indian Youth Congress organized a mega job fair (Maha Rojgar Mela) in Patna in July, at which 7,000 youths reportedly got job offers.

“All these are seen as the political will of the Congress leadership to revive the party, which has been lying moribund for years and heavily dependent on its regional ally RJD. It indicates a shift in the Congress strategy in Bihar to function independently, away from the shadow of the dominant ally RJD that has been playing big brother for years,” said a former minister and Congress leader.

Also read: As Rahul’s Voter Adhikar Yatra approaches climax, the real test begins now

Social justice-themed politics

Political activist Satyanarayan Madan, who has also been watching Bihar politics closely since the 1980s, said Rahul’s Yatra’s agenda may have been “vote fraud” by the EC, but he has been extending his social justice-themed politics by repeatedly raising issues that directly concern the poor, weak, deprived, and marginalised people.

His fights for issues such as a caste census, hike in reservation, and SIR have changed the perception of Rahul Gandhi among Dalits and Extreme Backward Castes. Rahul has built a communication channel with them and reached out to them.

“There is hardly any village or panchayat in Bihar where voter names were not deleted in SIR. Of the 65 lakh voter names deleted, most are of poor, Dalit, and weaker sections. It created a collective fear that they would be deprived of the benefits of government-sponsored welfare schemes. Rahul’s attempt is in a positive direction; the Congress will get its benefits,” said Madan.

Decline of the Congress

Till the 1985 Bihar assembly polls, the Congress was a dominant political force in Bihar. That year, it won 196 of the 324 assembly seats (in undivided Bihar), with 39.30 per cent of votes.

The year 1990 marked a turning point for the party, as it was ousted from power by the Janata Dal-BJP combine. The Congress won 71 assembly seats and its vote share came down to 24.78 per cent. From there, its journey of decline continued and reached such a level that it was forced to play second fiddle to the RJD, led by Lalu Prasad, for survival.

In the 1995 assembly polls, when Lalu emerged as a leader of OBCs and successfully experimented with the Muslim-Yadav (MY) factor, the Congress managed to win only 29 of the 320 seats it contested, with its vote share plummeting to 16.3 per cent. In the 2020 state assembly polls, the Congress contested alone and won 23 out of 324 seats, its vote share falling to 11.6 per cent.

After Bihar was bifurcated and the separate state of Jharkhand came into existence in 2000, Bihar’s assembly seats were reduced to 243. In the first state assembly polls after that, in February 2005, the Congress contested in alliance with the RJD and won only nine seats. The party improved its tally in 2015 — contested along with the combined force of Lalu’s RJD and Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) — by winning 27 seats. But when it contested 70 seats only with the RJD in 2020, the party won only 19, its vote share dropping to a mere 9.46 per cent.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha Polls, the Congress, in alliance with the RJD, won three seats, with a 9.3 per cent vote share — its best performance since 2004. In 2019, the Congress won only one seat, with a 7 per cent vote share, but its ally RJD was out on zero — the first time ever that Lalu’s party failed to win a single seat, thanks to the Modi wave.

Also read: Akhilesh Yadav mocks RSS chief Bhagwat, endorses Tejashwi for Bihar elections

Twin blows and a dramatic decline

But what caused this dramatic downfall for the party? The Congress’s decline in Bihar can be traced to the infamous 1989 Bhagalpur communal riots which happened during its rule. The incident alienated its core support base of Muslims. This was quickly followed by a loss of support of another traditional base — the upper castes — which happened in the early 1990s, in the wake of the Mandal-Kamandal (Social Justice and Ram Temple) politics. Soon, the party lost the Dalit support base as well.

According to a political analyst, data for the past 34 years shows that the Congress lost its traditional upper caste support base to the BJP, and the Muslim, Dalit, and OBC support base to its ally the RJD and Left parties. “If the Congress really wants to revive the party, it must work hard to connect with and stand for these communities to regain their support and votes,” the analyst said.

Struggle to walk alone

The party joined hands with the RJD for the first time in the 1998 Lok Sabha polls, where the RJD won 17 of the 54 seats and the Congress won four. In the past 28 years, whenever the Congress has contested the polls independently, it has been routed. The worst was in 2010, when the party contested alone and won only four of the 243 assembly seats. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, too, the party contested alone and won only two seats.

In 2021, too, under pressure from the powerful upper caste lobby in the party, the Congress decided to walk away from the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan and contested the by-elections for two Assembly seats alone. It managed to garner only 3.10 per cent of the votes and was pushed to the fourth place.

Another political observer said the Congress must regain its support bases to dent into the BJP’s upper caste votes. Until then, going alone in the polls will not make any difference.

Also read: Rahul accuses BJP, RSS, EC of 'vote chori' in Bihar, vows to protect voting rights

Will it be enough?

The party has indeed been trying to get back its traditional support bases by wooing marginalised sections of society. Rahul’s emphasis on social justice, economic equality, and hike in reservation quota is part of that strategy.

In a symbolic gesture during his Yatra, Rahul handed over the key to a newly built house to legendary Dalit icon Dashrath Manjhi’s (popularly known as Mountain Man) son Bhagirath Manjhi in Gaya district. Manjhi belongs to the Musahar community — one of the most marginalised of the Dalits. The house was funded by Rahul himself, who visited Manjhi in June.

Such small gestures may go a long way to win back a section of the party’s traditional vote base in the long run, but it won’t be easy to revive the party in such a short time.