Waqf law push may be final nail in coffin for Nitish’s falling Muslim votes

JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar’s support for the Waqf (Amendment) Act 2025 looks likely to bite him in the impending Assembly elections in Bihar.

The anger of Muslims against the chief minister and his party has been evident from some recent incidents. On Muharram a week ago, JD(U) MLA Manorma Devi’s controversial son Rocky Yadav faced the ire of Muslims when he went to her rural constituency to take part in the symbolic mourning procession. Slogans were raised against him, his mother, and the party as well.

A broken promise

Notably, Manorma was elected from Belagunj assembly constituency, which has a sizeable number of Muslim voters, in a by-election last November on the assurance that her party would not support the Waqf (Amendment) Bill.

Therefore, it was hardly surprising that Rocky faced angry Muslims during his visit to Mahmudabad village and five other neighbouring villages and was eventually forced to leave. Muslim youths chanted “go back” and “murdabad” slogans against him and publicly accused Manorma of betraying their trust.

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Rocky, who was sentenced to life imprisonment by a lower court for killing a youth in a road-rage incident in Gaya district in 2017, was acquitted by Patna High Court in 2023. Since then, he has been active in politics and widely seen as Manorma’s heir apparent.

Iftar party boycott

This was not an isolated instance of growing Muslim fury against Nitish and his party. In March, Muslims collectively boycotted the Iftar party at Nitish’s residence responding to a call by Imarat-e-Shariah, an influential Patna-based Muslim body working for the rights and empowerment of the Muslim community in Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha.

“We never expected anything from the BJP but Nitish Kumar has betrayed us. He is more responsible than the BJP for the amended Waqf laws. His communal face has been exposed; he will not get our support this time” — Saif Ahmad, protester at Patna rally

The Imarat-e-Shariah also organised a protest in Patna along with the All India Muslim Personal Law Board on March 26 to oppose the Waqf Bill, particularly Nitish Kumar and the JD-U's support for it. The message was loud and clear: To put pressure on the central government for withdraw the law.

This was the first major expression of Muslim unhappiness against Nitish Kumar in recent years. Then again, in April, Minority Welfare Minister Md Zama Khan — a prominent Muslim face in JD(U) — faced protests in his home district of Kaimur for supporting the Waqf Act. Muslims in dozens of villages in his Chainpur assembly constituency reportedly threatened not to vote for him.

Mega Patna rally

Muslims’ disillusionment with Nitish and JD(U) was also evident during the June 29 mega rally in Patna against the Waqf (Amendment) Act.

The presence of the leaders of Opposition INDIA bloc — locally known as Mahagathbandhan — and their loud rejection of the amended Waqf laws was not only welcomed by the huge gathering that braved a scorching sun and high humidity, but also gave an idea about their anger towards Nitish and JD(U), a major ally of BJP along with the HAM of Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and LJP(R) of Union Minister Chirag Paswan.

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During the rally, The Federal spoken to dozens of Muslim protesters to know their stand on supporting Nitish. “We never expected anything from the BJP but Nitish Kumar has betrayed us. He is more responsible than the BJP for the amended Waqf laws. His communal face has been exposed; he will not get our support this time,” says Saif Ahmad, a young protester from Patna.

‘Nitish will pay the price’

The middle-aged Md Qurban, who is a roadside vendor from the communally sensitive Bhagalpur district, is not well educated but understands that the Waqf legislation goes against the interests of Muslims. “Nitish and his party will pay the price,” he asserted. “They will seize our Waqf properties and religious places, including mosques and cemeteries. Now hardly one per cent Muslims may support him,” said Qurban.

Hasan Ansari, a retired schoolteacher from the Muslim-populated Kishanganj district, regretted supporting Nitish in past elections. “We were with Nitish’s JD(U) and voted for him, but now there is no question of doing so,” fumed Ansari.

Muzaffar Hussain, a young plumber who was seen marching with the national flag, said he made it a point to come down from Madhubani to participate in the protest because it was a matter of survival for Muslims. “The government is bent on depriving Muslims of their fundamental rights provided by the Constitution,” he said.

“Nitish has exposed his real face by supporting the Waqf Bill. Had he been a secular leader, he would have never supported it. It will prove as the last nail in the coffin for him” — Muzaffar Hussain, plumber from Madhubani

“Nitish has exposed his real face by supporting the Waqf Bill. Had he been a secular leader, he would have never supported it. It will prove as the last nail in the coffin for him,” he claimed.

Importance of Muslims in Bihar politics

With the next Bihar assembly elections only three or four months away, Muslims, who constitute about 17.7 per cent of Bihar’s population, are openly voicing their decision not to support and vote for Nitish. His secular image — a rarity in the NDA — has taken a beating as well.

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Muslims have a sizeable presence in the backward Seemanchal region that comprises the four districts of Araria, Purnea, Kishanganj, and Katihar. Muslim support matters in most assembly constituencies in these districts. Besides, in dozens of constituencies spread across the state, Muslim voters play a deciding factor. In Bihar’s caste-dominated politics, their support can seal the final outcome.

Although Muslims’ loyalty to Lalu Prasad’s RJD is well known in Bihar, about 25–30 per cent of them reportedly voted for JD(U) in consecutive elections in the past two-and-a-half decades (barring 2020) because of his development-oriented and secular credentials. Local dailies have reported time and again that Muslims have supported Nitish and JD(U) in Lok Sabha as well as Assembly polls in recent years.

Nitish’s waning popularity

Political activist Satyanarayan Madan, who also runs Jan Pahal, a Patna-based civil society organisation, says that a sizeable section of Muslims supported and voted for Nitish and contributed to his political rise.

“A sizeable section of Muslims voted him to power in 2005, and a big chunk of Muslims voted for him in the 2010 assembly polls when his party won the highest 115 seats out of 243. Again, the JD(U) got the overwhelming support of Muslims in the 2015 assembly polls, when he joined hands with RJD and won 71 seats.

But after 2019, when Nitish supported the CAA-NRC after returning to the NDA fold, Muslims, who widely saw him as a defender of secularism despite his long association with the BJP, were disappointed, and only a small section voted for him in the 2020 assembly polls in which his party won only 43 seats, its lowest ever.

The JD(U) had even fielded 11 Muslim candidates in minority-dominated assembly seats, but none of them won. This time, the number will go down further because Muslims are totally disenchanted with Nitish for his repeated stand against their cause, said Madan.

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Growing disillusionment

“The JD(U) has pushed Muslims away with its aggressive stand in favour of the Waqf Act. Even in the 2020 assembly polls, the JD(U) got the lowest percentage of Muslim votes because of its support for the CAA-NRC. As Nitish’s core vote base is shrinking, the JD(U) is playing more and more into the BJP’s hands. It’s quite obvious that the percentage of Muslim vote for the JD(U) will be negligible,” said political analyst Soroor Ahmad.

“The JD(U) has pushed Muslims away with its aggressive stand in favour of the Waqf Act. Even in the 2020 assembly polls, the JD(U) got the lowest percentage of Muslim votes because of its support for the CAA-NRC. As Nitish’s core vote base is shrinking, the JD(U) is playing more and more into the BJP’s hands” — Soroor Ahmad, political analyst

Ahmad added that last November, after strongly supporting the Waqf Bill in Parliament, senior JD(U) leader and Union minister Lalan Singh publicly claimed that Muslims do not vote for JD(U), yet the Nitish Kumar government has been working for them. Singh, a former JD(U) president considered close to Nitish, further stated that Nitish knows who vote for him and who don’t.

Singh had also claimed that the Waqf Bill was not anti-Muslim. A few senior JD(U) leaders from the Muslim community, including an MLC, differed on record with the party’s official line that the Waqf Bill would actually benefit Pasmanda Muslims.

Pushing away Pasmandas

In April, when the Waqf (Amendment) Bill was passed in parliament, over a dozen Muslim leaders quit JD(U). One of them is Mohammad Qasim Ansari, who says Nitish disappointed thousands of Muslims by supporting the Waqf Bill.

“The Waqf Bill is anti-Pasmanda as well. I know it because I am a Pasmanda (backward) Muslim myself,” he said, adding that the “JD(U) accepted BJP propaganda”. Many Muslim leaders in the JD(U) are unhappy and angry over their party’s stand but are unable to speak out, Ansari said.

One of them is JD(U) MLC Gulam Gaus. He is also a Pasmanda Muslim who spoke against the Waqf Bill initially and joined public protests, too, but later went silent.

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Feeble voices

According to a CSDS-Lokniti survey, Muslim support and vote percent for Nitish and JD(U) have gone down since 2015. “This reflects their discomfort over Nitish’s support for BJP’s agenda that hurt Muslims,” said activist Madan.

JD(U) leader and former MP Ahmad Ashfaque Karim, who had also expressed his strong reservation against the Waqf Bill, however, voiced a cautious opinion.

“Nitish-ji is a secular leader; he has worked a lot for the empowerment of Muslims and initiated several measures for them and their development. Muslims still consider him their leader and will support him in the forthcoming polls. Muslims, like others, have benefited from development works like good roads, power connection, schools, health centres, 35 per cent reservation for women in government jobs and communal harmony in the state,” said Karim, who is eyeing a party ticket in the polls.