Why Yogi's Kanwar Yatra diktat has Nitish Kumar worried in Bihar

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has maintained his secular credentials and consciously taken steps to woo the Muslims despite his long association with the BJP. He has never compromised on his secular image even while keeping the BJP by his side.

Not surprisingly, the controversial diktat by Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath asking shopkeepers to display names to identify Muslims among them during the Kanwar Yatra has worried Nitish no end.

The ruling JD(U) has dubbed it as “divisive and unconstitutional” and sought review of this order at the earliest. JD(U) leader KC Tyagi contended that a much bigger Kanwar Yatra from Sultanganj to Deoghar is organised in Shrawan (July-August) and Ashwin (September-October) in Bihar and Jharkhand every year.

“But no such order has ever been issued by the Bihar government. This order is in utter violation of the ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas and Sabka Saath’ dictum of the NDA government,” he said.

Creating fissures

This order will have nationwide impact and has the potential to create fissures between JD(U) and BJP in Bihar. It will definitely have an impact on Bihar politics and the Bihar assembly polls due in October 2025.

While such a considered order may help the BJP consolidate its Hindu vote bank, it is bound to harm its main ally – the JD(U), which has been cajoling the minorities since 2005.

It is understood that Nitish might have quit the INDIA bloc out of fear that the Ram temple would drive a wave in favour of the BJP but this proved to be unfounded in the Lok Sabha polls. In the changed circumstances, the BJP's communal plank has been rejected by the electorate. Now, the JD(U) and other NDA allies are no longer fearful of communal polarisation.

“It is worrisome for Nitish Kumar, who has been the champion of the secular cause. The BJP is using the Kanwar Yatra order to further the anti-Muslim prejudice and intensity communal polarisation,” said Anwar Ali, former JD(U) Rajya Sabha MP and president of the All India Pasmanda Muslim Mahaz, which champions the cause of backward Muslims.

NDA partners divided

The NDA allies in Bihar are divided over the UP chief minister’s diktat asking shopkeepers to display names during the Kanwar Yatra. The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) led by Union minister Chirag Paswan has rejected this order outright and asked for its immediate withdrawal.

Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) chief and former Union minister Upendra Kushwaha too didn’t agree with this fiat and termed it as “improper” in a democratic set up.

However, Union MSME minister and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi strongly vouched for Yogi's order asserting that the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) guidelines should be followed in letter and spirit by all concerned.

Yogi's bid to create friction?

A section of Bihar BJP leaders also argued that Yogi is trying to trigger friction among the NDA allies. A senior Bihar BJP leader and former Union minister Dr Sanjay Paswan dubbed Yogi's diktat as “highly objectionable” arguing that Yogi is trying to create tension among the alliance partners.

“The communal agenda has failed to yield results. Yogi is trying to deflect the barbs at him as he has become the target of the central party leadership, which is allegedly seeking his replacement in the wake of poor performance of the party in the recent Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh,” Dr Paswan told The Federal.

He argued that the diversionary strategy of the BJP leadership to polarise politics has been rejected in the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, Bengal and Maharashtra, which are highly politically conscious states. “Bihar is the only exception solely because of Nitish Kumar, who turned the BJP's image from ‘untouchable’ to ‘touchable’ among the political parties in the state,” he said.

Nitish’s social engineering

Known for his political acumen and precise social engineering, Nitish had built a vote bank of Kurmi-Koeri (Luv-Kush) combine, Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs), Mahadalits and Muslims that catapulted him to power in 2005.

At election rallies, Nitish has been claiming that his government has honestly taken concrete measures for the welfare of the Muslims while the Opposition has done precious little for them but taken their votes.

After taking over the reins of Bihar, he took initiatives such as re-opening of the Bhagalpur riots cases and setting up the NN Singh Commission to investigate these cases, Rs 25,000 per month as compensation to the riot victims, besides scholarships to students in government-affiliated Madarsas, promotion of Urdu language and fencing of graveyards etc.

Consolidating Muslim vote bank

The JD(U) leader has decided to consolidate its Muslim vote bank in view of the decline in BJP support base nationwide. It aims at emerging as the single-largest party out of the 120-odd seats it intends to contest in 2025 state assembly polls. The target is being followed vigorously taking lessons from the 2020 state polls wherein the JD(U) could win only 43 seats as the LJP had fielded candidates on seats contested by the JD(U) in alleged complicity with the BJP. The trust deficit between JD(U) and LJP still persists.

Muslims had supported Nitish because he was the “big brother” in the NDA and ran the alliance as well as the government at will keeping his secular credentials intact. Of late, he faces credibility crisis among Muslims due to his frequent somersaults.

The proportion of Muslim voters' preference towards Nitish keeps changing according to his choice of the allies. As part of the NDA between 2005 and 2010, he enjoyed unflinching support of the Muslims. It continued in 2015 when he joined hands with the RJD. But after the advent of Narendra Modi in 2014, the quantum of Muslims' support to the JD(U) declined. The BJP voters showed little interest in voting for Muslim candidates of the JD(U).

Roping in Muslim leaders

Nitish has made sagacious attempts to make a dent into the Muslim monolith in 2005 by roping in backward Muslim leaders like Anwar Ali, Ejaz Ali and others. Their efforts fetched the votes of the weaker sections among the minorities like Lalbegis, Halalkhors, Mehtars and others towards the JD(U). Anwar was rewarded with Rajya Sabha membership twice for efforts to woo the backward Muslims.

Nitish has maintained his hold on to Muslim votes by opposing the abrogation of provisions of Article 370 and Triple Talaq Bill. The JD(U), however, supported the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Bill in Parliament. The Citizenship Amendment Act allows citizenship to Hindus, Buddhists, Jains, Sikhs, Parsis and Christians coming from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh facing religious persecution but it does not include the Muslims.

Muslims hold the key in about 100 assembly constituencies in the north-eastern districts like Kishanganj, Purnia, Araria, Katihar, Supaul, Madhepura, Saharsa and Darbhanga. In some areas, their population varies between 40 and 60%.