Delhi blast: Test explosion or premature detonation? Expert answers

A day after the blast outside Delhi’s Red Fort Metro Station killed over 10 people and injured several others, the Centre has handed over the investigation to the National Investigation Agency (NIA). The Union Home Ministry has termed the explosion a matter of national security concern, even as details continue to emerge about a suspected “white-collar” terror network involving medical professionals.

Appearing on The Federal’s Capital Beat, veteran security expert Manoj Joshi analysed the circumstances surrounding the incident and the nature of the terror module under investigation. The Red Fort remains closed temporarily as security agencies maintain high alert across the capital.

Mystery around the explosion

According to preliminary findings, the device that exploded near the Red Fort contained no shrapnel — a feature commonly seen in fully fabricated bombs. Most casualties were due to burns rather than impact wounds, suggesting that the device may have been unstable or poorly assembled.

Joshi noted that the explosion’s location at a traffic junction raised questions about intent and target selection. “If the aim was mass casualties, there were several crowded spots nearby,” he said, adding that this could indicate the device detonated accidentally while being transported.

Despite the magnitude of the blast, no official statement has classified the incident as a terror attack so far. The Home Ministry has only confirmed that cases under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) and the Explosives Act have been registered.

Government response under scrutiny

The absence of an official briefing after the explosion has raised concerns. Joshi observed that no coordinated communication has been made by either the Delhi Police or the Home Ministry, even as multiple “source-based” accounts circulate in mainstream media.

Also Read: Terror plot: Who are the 4 arrested doctors and the suspected suicide bomber?

He pointed out that the government has in recent years projected terrorism as being under control, following public statements by senior officials and the National Security Advisor. The sudden emergence of an organised terror cell, he said, contradicts this narrative and complicates the official response.

Investigations have already established links between the Red Fort blast and earlier arrests in northern India. Individuals detained in Saharanpur and Faridabad, including doctors identified as Adil Ahmed Rathore, Mudammil Ahmed Ganai, and Shaheen Shahid, are alleged to have connections to the same network.

Arrests and missed intelligence

The chain of arrests began on November 6 with the detention of Dr. Rathore in Saharanpur, followed by the capture of Ganai and Shahid. Another accused, Dr. Usman Umar, believed to have operated from Al Falah Hospital in Faridabad, was reportedly not apprehended at the time.

Joshi said the failure to detain all suspects simultaneously may have enabled the Red Fort incident. “If Umar was part of the conspiracy, he should have been wrapped up together. Was the surveillance on him weak?” he asked, suggesting possible gaps in coordination.

Authorities have since recovered large quantities of ammonium nitrate and other explosive materials from multiple locations, including Faridabad. Investigators believe the materials were intended for use in a wider series of planned attacks.

Homegrown or cross-border links?

No group has yet claimed responsibility for the explosion, and officials have not established a cross-border connection. While some reports hint at possible ties to Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed, Joshi said such an assertion would carry “serious implications,” given the government’s stated policy of direct retaliation against Pakistan-based outfits.

The expert noted that linking the attack to Jaish-e-Mohammed could compel the government to act militarily, as it has repeatedly declared that both terrorists and their sponsors will face consequences. For now, the administration appears cautious about making such a claim.

Joshi explained that the dismantling of a few known terror camps in Pakistan had not eliminated the threat. The networks, he said, have since dispersed and continue to operate through smaller cells.

Radicalisation among professionals

The arrest of medical professionals in connection with the case has drawn attention to rising radicalisation among educated groups. Joshi described this as a “deeply worrying trend” that suggests terrorism has taken root beyond traditional militant circles in Kashmir.

He said the involvement of doctors and other professionals indicates a growing ideological penetration. Recent security operations in Jammu and Kashmir, he noted, have uncovered several local cells, contradicting claims of restored normalcy after the revocation of Article 370.

“This shows that terrorism may have taken deeper roots in Kashmir than we imagined,” Joshi said. “You can keep a tight lid on it, but that doesn’t mean you control it.”

Explosives and operational details

Investigators have found that the suspected group was using ammonium nitrate mixed with fuel oil, a combination known as ANFO, to prepare improvised explosive devices. Joshi explained that ANFO, while less lethal than military-grade RDX, can still produce powerful blasts when properly detonated.

Police believe the Red Fort device was either a test explosion or a premature detonation during transport. The discovery of partially assembled devices supports the theory that the group was still in the fabrication stage.

Further evidence suggests that the accused used ordinary vehicles to move weapons and possibly drones for delivery, evading regular surveillance mechanisms.

Tightening the security net

The NIA is expected to focus on tracing the financial and communication channels of the network, particularly charitable fronts accused of facilitating fund transfers through encrypted platforms. Joshi stressed that such organisations are subject to existing financial regulations and should already be under watch.

The investigation will also examine possible lapses in intelligence-sharing among agencies, especially given prior arrests that had exposed parts of the same network operating across states.

As the probe continues, security forces remain on high alert in the national capital and in Jammu and Kashmir, where a series of arrests have been made following the Red Fort blast.

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