BJP’s RS win in J-K exposes NC-Cong fault lines as parties blame each other

The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) unexpected victory in one Rajya Sabha seat in Jammu and Kashmir despite not having sufficient votes has once again exposed the fault lines between the National Conference and the Congress in the state and also resulted in the anti-BJP parties in the Valley pointing fingers at each other.

Elections were held for J&K's four Rajya Sabha seats after a gap of over six years, and over four years after the last member from the erstwhile state retired from Parliament's Upper House.

Cross-voting triggers political storm

The political storm that the result has since triggered has got the J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on Friday (October 24) casting aspersions on non-NC MLAs, including those from ally Congress and rival PDP, who had decided to vote for the ruling party's candidates, albeit grudgingly.

For the BJP, the lone victory is, arguably, more significant than the three seats that the National Conference secured as the saffron party did not have the requisite number of MLAs in the J&K Assembly to ensure the successful election of any of its nominees.

Also Read: Omar Abdullah: Money, muscle power only ways left for BJP to win J-K RS seats

That the BJP's Sat Sharma managed to poll 32 votes, against his party's tally of 28 MLAs, made it clear that at least four MLAs who had pledged their support for the NC's candidates had cross-voted.

BJP gloats

The BJP, gloating over its surprise win, had muddied the waters for its rivals claiming that while the party did not reach out to any legislator from the other side of the political divide, Sharma had ended up securing more than expected votes because at least some MLAs supporting Abdullah's party had voted as per their conscience.

BJP’s J&K general secretary Ashok Kaul acknowledged to The Federal that “there could be some MLAs from other parties or even independents who believe in the ideas of PM Narendra Modi who ensured that the BJP was able to get extra votes (32 votes) against its own strength of 28 votes”.

Also Read: J&K Rajya Sabha polls: Congress-NC rift aids BJP's chances

Kaul said his party was “not in touch with MLAs from other parties or independents”. However, he said his party’s candidate Sat Sharma, who won the fourth seat, might have been in touch with people from the other parties.

Omar Abdullah’s outburst

National Conference vice-president Omar Abdullah’s outburst came after his party’s candidates Choudhary Muhammad Ramzan, Sajjad Kichloo, and Gurwinder Singh Oberoi were declared winners on the first three RS seats but its fourth candidate, Imran Nabi Dar, lost to the BJP's Sharma by four votes.

Abdullah claimed that all of the NC’s votes remained intact across the four elections, “as witnessed by our election agent who saw each polling slip.”

Also Read: J-K bypolls: NC fields DDC member as Cong leaves Nagrota to realise 'larger goal' of defeating BJP

It is a different matter though that J&K has only Abdullah's word to go by on how the NC's MLAs voted. Given how the chief minister has often sought to warm up to the BJP-led Centre over the past year after assuming office on the back of a blistering anti-BJP poll campaign, his political rivals from the PDP, AAP, People's Conference, its sulking ally, the Congress, and even ordinary Kashmiris may not put much stock on Abdullah's word.

“There was no cross-voting from any of our MLAs, so the question arises — where did the four extra votes of the BJP come from? Who were the MLAs who deliberately invalidated their votes by marking a wrong preference number while voting? Do they have the guts to put their hands up and own up to helping the BJP after promising us their votes? What pressure or inducement helped them make this choice? Let’s see if any of the BJP’s secret team own up to selling their souls!” he wrote on social media platform X.

‘Fixed match between NC, BJP’: Sajjad Lone

Abdullah’s remarks were rebutted instantly by People's Conference chief Sajjad Lone, who called it a “fixed match” between NC and BJP. The MLA from north Kashmir’s Handwara, Lone, earlier abstained from voting in the RS polls.

“So BJP wins the fourth seat. As predicted fixed match. Axis of the evil. NC and BJP. Thank God I abstained. Imagine what my plight would have been. Now mathematically proved. That it was a fixed match,” he said on X.

Also Read: Omar Abdullah rules out any tie-up with BJP for J-K statehood restoration

Lone made his point saying, “Why did NC poll extra votes for candidate 3. They didn’t need to. They polled 31 votes for candidate 3. Only 29 votes would have sufficed. Even 28. Because BJP was fighting for seat 4. Who cross voted. Whose votes were rejected. And who was hand in glove.”

The contest for the final seat had remained uncertain until the last round of counting, with both parties, NC and BJP, expressing confidence over victory. It was, of course, clear from the start that the BJP's win was only possible through abstentions or cross-voting by its rivals.

The arithmetic

The 90-member J&K Legislative Assembly presently has 88 legislators, as two seats of Budgam and Nagrota are vacant. The NC-Congress combine along with the support of seven independents had the assured support of 54 MLAs.

With the three PDP MLAs as well as Abdullah critics — jailed AAP MLA Mehraj Malik and Awami Ittehad Party MLA Sheikh Khursheed — also supporting the NC, the ruling party's numbers had swollen to 59 MLAs while the BJP had only 28 MLAs on its side.

The above arithmetic suggested that the ruling NC could win three seats or even sweep all four seats. For the BJP to ensure its victory on the fourth seat, it had to manage support from outside.

Congress does not rule out horse-trading by BJP

BJP’s victory in J&K is being dubbed as “unfortunate” by its opponents, particularly the Congress which sees the development as an “addition in the armour of BJP nationally”.

Senior Congress leader Nizamuddin Bhat, who was also the authorised polling agent of the party for the RS polls told The Federal, “The calculations which you see have been distorted ultimately.”

Also Read: J-K Assembly bypoll: Omar Abdullah offers Nagrota seat to Congress

He also didn’t rule out horse-trading on the part of the BJP, saying, “It is obvious because BJP was claiming that they (BJP) will win three seats. What were they depending upon? Horse-trading alone.”

Bhat, the MLA from north Kashmir’s Bandipora, claimed, “They (BJP) must have used behind-the-scenes tactics; administrative power plus money power. But the unfortunate part of it is — why should a legislator be tempted and compromise on his conviction... That is treason. It is a betrayal. It is condemnable.”

‘Deal between Abdullah and BJP’

A PDP leader from south Kashmir alleged that a “deal was already secured between Omar Abdullah and BJP’s national vice president Baijayant Jay Panda” during the latter’s visit to J&K ahead of the announcement of Rajya Sabha polls.

“This has been done by NC strategically. First, the Congress was sidelined as they were denied a safe seat. It is Congress that is fighting BJP at the Centre. Bihar elections are underway; BJP will project this win in a big way to claim fissures in the INDIA bloc. NC could have given a safe seat to Congress in good faith and left it to Congress to negotiate for the fourth seat with other parties and Independents.”

The above PDP leader, who insisted on anonymity, said as “part of the deal between NC and BJP, J&K LG has cleared business rules of J&K Assembly UT which otherwise were pending for the last one year”.

NC denied ‘safe seat’ for Congress

Earlier, NC denied a “safe seat” to its ally the Congress despite party president Farooq Abdullah, as per sources, committing it to the Congress top brass including party chief Mallikarjun Kharge and chairperson of the Congress Parliamentary Party (CPP) Sonia Gandhi, during his New Delhi visit in the last week of September.

“After some days, Dr Sahib (Farooq Abdullah) fell ill. His phone went out of reach. Then our (Congress) leaders held a meeting with Omar Abdullah and his aide Nasir Sogami who clearly said no to our demand,” said a Congress source.

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The NC’s move had ruffled feathers not only in the Congress but also among other parties in the Opposition camp, including the PDP and some independents. The discord was later settled by Farooq Abdullah who reached out to the Congress and held a separate meeting with six Independents at a private hotel in Srinagar to win them over.

“Dr Sahib wept bitterly. That moved me. At this age, I cannot see tears in his eyes,” an independent MLA who was a part of the meeting told The Federal.

Congress’s dignified response

The Congress had earlier declined Farooq Abdullah's invitation to participate in a joint legislature party meeting on October 22.

J&K Congress president Tariq Hamid Karra wrote to the NC chief saying, “…I express regret that we had to stay away for the reasons, also known to you. It bears no mention that Congress as a Party could ever be questioned for any move, act or intention directed to defeat communal forces in general and BJP in particular. In this backdrop, having or not having a seat in any institution going for polls even as a legitimate share is immaterial for us and our struggle.”

In another communique to the NC president, Karra's lament, on behalf of his party, was even more pronounced.

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“Post discussions on sharing of four Rajya Sabha seats between us, it was not so pleasant an experience in the backdrop of expectations and understanding we had arrived at the time of forging the alliance. However, the hiccups that generally occur in such arrangements don’t deter us from taking a principled stand. It has been very enduring for Congress as a party of values and as an ardent lover of secular ethos to forego personal and party interests if confronting a larger cause,” the J&K Congress chief wrote.

Karra added, “It was our desire to stand united and serve the suffering people hand-in-hand, which we did irrespective of negativities that were involved during the course of the partnership. Sad as this appears, our one-year experience has been of disappointment. Our party colleagues in the Assembly in particular and the party cadre in general bore instant humiliations and your apathy.”

Congress supports NC candidates

Yet, Karra informed Farooq Abdullah that the Congress MLAs would vote for NC candidates in the RS polls.

“We have now again chosen to be on your side primarily and necessarily to stand united against what we call BJP agenda of atrocities and subjugation. It bears no mention that Congress as a party could ever be questioned for any move, intent or act directed to defeat communal forces in general and BJP in particular... We feel happy as a party of ethos to keep all differences on the back burner at this hour of paramount challenges and with pleasure convey our decision to vote for NC Candidates as Candidates of Alliance... Onus is now on you to prove yourself,” Karra wrote.

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Though the NC had offered the Congress to field its candidate for the fourth seat, the party had declined to do so; choosing to leave all four seats for its senior ally.

‘Independents may have voted for BJP’

Bandipora MLA Bhat said, "Congress already knew that the fourth seat was a risky seat. Because there were a good number of independents voting on it. Independents are not bound by any discipline. How could you rely on them? We were asked to rely on them… My vote (as a Congress MLA) is a tested vote because the (party's polling) agent has to verify it but for an independent it is a secret ballot;” hinting it was the independents who went back on their word and voted for the BJP.