After TMC, Shiv Sena (UBT) exodus, is Samajwadi Party heading towards a split?

As political turbulence engulfs the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal and the Shiv Sena (UBT) in Maharashtra, speculation is now shifting to Uttar Pradesh, where claims have emerged that the Samajwadi Party is heading towards a massive split.

The buzz gained momentum after Uttar Pradesh minister and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party chief Om Prakash Rajbhar claimed that Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party is on the verge of a major break-up, with several leaders keen to join the BJP. However, sources in the BJP and SP told The Federal that no such developments are happening.

BJP’s claims of major split

In a social media post, Rajbhar claimed that senior SP leader Ram Gopal Yadav had written to Union Home Minister Amit Shah to negotiate a switch to the BJP.

Also read: TMC split, DMK-Congress divorce: New Delimitation path opens up for BJP

"A major split is going to happen in the Samajwadi Party. Ram Gopal Yadav has submitted a letter to Amit Shah ji. Everyone in Uttar Pradesh knows who the mastermind behind the mining scam and Gomti River Front scam is. As the noose tightens, the SP is getting anxious," Rajbhar claimed.

He further claimed that the entire Samajwadi Party was preparing to switch sides, remarking, "Forget Maharashtra and Bengal, the entire SP is sitting ready to join the BJP."

SP hits back

The Samajwadi Party dismissed the allegations. Party chief Akhilesh Yadav responded with a cryptic answer, "Dana aur gana kab tak chalega yeh afsana" (How long will this story of giving and taking continue?).

SP spokesperson Manish Singh also hit back at Rajbhar, questioning his political standing.

Also read: TMC split: The legal gamble behind the rebel MPs' merger with NCPI

"Before commenting on the Samajwadi Party, Om Prakash Rajbharji should first assess his own political strength and capabilities. The number of workers and leaders in your entire party is not even equal to the number of workers and leaders in a single block of our party," he told PTI.

Party strength

The speculation comes despite the Samajwadi Party remaining one of the country's largest Opposition parties. The SP currently has 41 MPs in Parliament, including 37 members in the Lok Sabha and four in the Rajya Sabha, making it the third-largest party in the Lower House. In the Assembly, SP has over 100 MLAs as well.

The rumours surrounding a possible split in Uttar Pradesh come against the backdrop of political crises confronting opposition parties in other states.

Political turmoil

In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress is facing challenges both in the Assembly and in Parliament. A group of rebel MLAs has reportedly broken ranks with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and backed expelled leader Ritabrata Banerjee for a key opposition post.

Simultaneously, around 20 TMC Lok Sabha MPs led by Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar have approached Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla seeking recognition as a separate faction and expressing support for the BJP-led NDA.

Also read: TMC collapse: Has BJP solved one problem and created two new ones?

In Maharashtra, meanwhile, speculation continues over a possible split in Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT). The alleged "Operation Tiger", an alleged effort by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena faction and the BJP to poach opposition legislators — has fuelled reports that six to seven Sena (UBT) MPs could cross over to the ruling alliance.

The impact

If the reported rebellion within the TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT) materialises, the BJP-led NDA's strength in the Lok Sabha could rise significantly from its current tally of 293 MPs.

Against this backdrop, Rajbhar's remarks have added a new dimension to the political discourse, particularly as Uttar Pradesh gears up for the crucial 2027 Assembly elections.