Why BJP says UP voter list deletions could hit it harder in 2027 poll

The removal of around 2.88 crore voters from the draft voter list, following the Election Commission's (EC) Special Intensive Revision (SIR), has triggered a political row in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state.

The Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) say it is surprising that there are discrepancies in voter numbers between panchayat elections and Assembly elections. They allege that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah are using the EC to manipulate the process.

Also read: UP SIR draft electoral roll: 2.89 crore voters deleted, highest in India

The BJP counters that such claims come from parties whose political ground has already slipped. Further, the ruling party claims it is among the biggest losers from the voter deletions in Uttar Pradesh.

Here is a deep dive into past election data to make an estimate of which party may suffer more due to the deletions in the draft list in the 2027 UP Assembly election.

Narrow margins

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has cautioned BJP state president Pankaj Chaudhary that if the voters who have been left out are not added in subsequent corrections, the BJP could face serious losses in seats where the victory margin was under 10,000 in the 2022 Assembly polls.

Also read: UP SIR: Smriti Irani's name included in Amethi voter list

In the 2022 Assembly elections, 114 of the 403 seats were decided by a margin of less than 10,000 votes. Of these, the BJP won 63 while the SP secured 41. In this context, the SIR draft list and Yogi Adityanath’s apprehensions could well turn into reality.

There were 15 seats where the victory margin was just about 1,000 votes in 2022. In 10 of these seats, the margin was under 500 votes. Of these 15 seats, the BJP and its allies won nine, while the SP-led alliance won six. Now, 32,000 to nearly 1.25 lakh voters have been struck off in these constituencies.

Across the state, there were 99 seats where the victory margin ranged from 1 to 10,000 votes. Among these, the BJP won 55 seats, the SP 35, the Rashtriya Lok Dal three, the Nishad Party and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party two each, and the Congress and BSP one each. These seats are under the scanner too.

Regional impact

In western Uttar Pradesh and Bundelkhand, there were 22 seats with victory margins below 10,000. The BJP won 13 of these, while the SP alliance won nine. Western UP has a significant Muslim and Jat population. At present, the SP and RLD are no longer allied, making the challenge tougher for the SP.

In the Awadh region, including areas around Lucknow, 50 seats were decided by margins under 10,000 votes. These were largely direct contests between the BJP and the SP. In 2022, the BJP won 30 seats while the SP won 20. With a high concentration of Lodha, Kurmi and Yadav voters, both parties face risks here, though the BJP may be more exposed.

A similar situation could confront the BJP in Purvanchal, covering regions such as Varanasi, Azamgarh and Gorakhpur. Here, 27 seats were decided by margins below 10,000. Of these, the BJP won 12 seats, the SP nine, while Om Prakash Rajbhar’s party and the Nishad Party won two each, and the BSP and Congress one each.

This article was originally published in The Federal Desh.