Will Sharmila's entry help Congress wrest its vote bank from brother Jagan in Andhra?

YS Sharmila, the sister of Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy, joined Congress on Thursday (January 4) amid turmoil in the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) in the southern state.

Chief Minister Jagan is facing challenges on various fronts. While Anganwadi workers are on a warpath against him, the village sarpanches and the government employees too aren’t pleased with him. On the political front, the ruling party’s dissidents are joining Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party. Similarly, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which upped the ante after the release of party chief N Chandrababu Naidu, is also busy poaching YSRCP MLAs. To add to Jagan’s troubles, many of his loyal MLAs have raised a banner of revolt against him.

Jagan's image has also taken a hit when it comes to matters of governance. He could not achieve any of his prime political goals. His attempt to split Amaravati into three capitals in the name of decentralisation had to be withdrawn. His dream of shifting the administrative base to Vishakhapatnam was thwarted by the Andhra Pradesh High Court. He also didn’t succeed in his bid to create a leadership crisis in TDP by imprisoning Naidu ahead of the elections.

Adding to Jagan’s woes

No one could have predicted that a party with an absolute majority (151/175) in the House would face such a crisis three months before the assembly elections that are scheduled to take place in April 2024. In this scenario, Sharmila’s move to join the Congress may only add to CM Jagan’s problems.

Crying foul over the issue at a gathering in Kakinada on Wednesday, Jagan said the policy of dividing families will be on display in Andhra Pradesh ahead of the elections, though he didn’t name the Congress. His Cabinet colleague Peddireddy Ramachandra Reddy echoed his sentiments by alleging that it was Chandrababu Naidu and Sonia Gandhi’s policy of creating a split in families for political gains.

The Congress suffered humiliation in the state following the establishment of Telangana in 2014. Jagan, who quit the Congress following his father’s demise in 2009, floated a new political party called YSR Congress Party (YSRCP). By 2019, many young leaders and activists of Congress had switched their loyalty towards Jagan. The party’s vote bank also drifted towards Jagan’s YSR Congress. In the 2019 elections, Jagan managed to secure victory in 151 out of the total 175 seats in Andhra Pradesh.

Congress bid to regain lost ground

Many suspect that Jagan deliberately kept Sharmila away when he became the chief minister in 2019, as her presence in the party could have created a second power centre. She expressed her desire to move to Telangana where she established the YSR Telangana Party. Though her campaign against the KCR and his family's control over the state gained a lot of traction, it didn’t translate into any substantial electoral support. The fear of losing the election made her think about backing Congress instead.

Acknowledging her leadership qualities, Congress decided to bring her back to Andhra politics, as the party believed that her presence there would help them regain the lost ground at a time when the ruling YSR Congress’ influence was on the decline. The Congress managed to persuade her effectively, paving the way for her induction into the party. According to party insiders, the Congress is contemplating making special status for Andhra Pradesh as its main electoral plank in the upcoming elections. The key issue has almost been forgotten by other major political players in the state.

Sharmila to emulate father?

In April 2003, YS Rajasekhar Reddy, who was the leader of CLP at the time, launched a 68-day ‘padayatra’ (foot march) against the failure of the TDP government led by N Chandrababu Naidu. He covered a distance of 1475 km across 56 assembly constituencies. The Yatra was so successful that the TDP lost the 2004 elections and the Congress returned to power after a gap of 10 years.

The Congress high command has reportedly granted permission to Sharmila to emulate her father's ‘padayatra’, this time focusing on the denial of special status to Andhra Pradesh by the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre. Congress leaders are hopeful that her ‘padayatra’ will now be the driving force behind its return to the limelight if not power.

Boost for Congress in Andhra

Dr Chinta Mohan, a former Union minister and a party veteran from Tirupati, said, “The Congress will receive a refreshing boost with the arrival of Sharmila. Who knows, given the strong wave of anti-incumbency against Jagan, Congress may come back to power in the 2024 elections.”

Political analyst Saratchandra Jyothishree said, “A significant number of lawmakers who were denied party nominations by Chief Minister Jagan are likely to join the Congress. Sharmila's leadership will give reassurance to those who want to join the Congress and the party can accommodate any number of aspirants, unlike TDP.”

A section of YSR Congress MLAs also confidently state that Sharmila will undeniably have a significant influence on numerous party leaders. Alla Ramakrishna Reddy, a rebel MLA of the YSR Congress, has declared that he will be joining the Congress along with Sharmila.

Her success, however, hinges on her ability to convince the public that she is the rightful successor of YSR and is committed to getting special category status for Andhra Pradesh. It will be interesting to see what strategy she will pursue to achieve this goal with just three months left for the Assembly elections.