Will Congress remove Siddaramaiah as CM to make way for DK Shivakumar?

Ending years of bitterness, bickering, and speculation, Congress’s tallest OBC leader in Karnataka, Siddaramaiah, may finally step down from the chief minister’s chair to make way for his deputy, DK Shivakumar, in exchange for a Rajya Sabha seat.

After Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar’s marathon meetings with the party high command in Delhi on Tuesday (May 26), it has emerged that such an offer was made to Siddaramaiah. Yet, Siddaramaiah is no Nitish Kumar. He is an extremely powerful OBC leader who is crucial for the party’s AHINDA (minorities, OBCs, and Dalits) voter base in Karnataka.

While chances are high that Siddaramaiah may not agree to such an exchange offer, sources in his camp told The Federal that none other than former party chief Rahul Gandhi made the proposal to him and Siddaramaiah may not be able to turn him down.

Also read: No discussion on Karnataka CM change, says Congress after big meeting

The Congress Legislative Party (CLP) meeting will reportedly be held on Thursday (May 28), when Siddaramaiah may announce his decision.

Challenges of replacing Siddaramiah

Yet, the Congress finds itself in a quandary. It has to walk an extremely thin tightrope and even a slight shift in weight might ensure that the government comes crashing down hard.

Replacing Siddaramaiah as the CM will pose plenty of challenges for the party—most significantly, protecting the party’s AHINDA social coalition, addressing emerging SIR-related electoral challenges, and ensuring administrative stability ahead of the 2028 Assembly elections.

Siddaramaiah’s administrative experience, financial management of guarantee schemes, and his ability to politically counter the Centre on issues involving southern states will make it risky for the party to replace him two years ahead of the state elections.

Marathon meetings

For nearly a year, Shivakumar’s repeated Delhi visits and lobbying efforts for the chief minister’s post had kept leadership discussions alive. Finally, amid intense discussions over a possible leadership change in Karnataka, Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar were urgently called to Delhi for crucial meetings with Congress high command leaders, including party’s national president Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul, KC Venugopal and Randeep Surjewala, on Tuesday.

The closed-door discussions were held under strict secrecy, with efforts made to prevent information leaks. Rahul separately met Siddaramaiah, while no separate meeting was held with Shivakumar. Before the meeting, both Karnataka leaders interacted publicly to signal unity.

Also read: Siddaramaiah meets Congress leaders in Delhi

Congress leaders are understood to have conveyed to both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar that their immediate responsibility is ensuring the party returns to power again in Karnataka despite growing political challenges.

The social justice equation

However, a leadership transition has to be viewed through the Congress’ national social justice positioning, with Siddaramaiah remaining one of the party’s tallest OBC leaders and an important face of Rahul Gandhi’s emphasis on backward-class representation.

Also, the Muslim community in Karnataka, which currently does not have a strong Muslim face within the state Congress, firmly backs Siddaramaiah.

Congress leaders are aware that in several Congress-ruled states, leadership positions are largely held by upper-caste leaders, making Siddaramaiah’s position politically significant as one of the party’s tallest OBC faces nationally.

Political circles have also discussed another possible scenario — if Siddaramaiah were eventually replaced, senior Dalit Congress leader Dr G Parameshwara could emerge as a consensus option to preserve the AHINDA social balance. However, internal questions remain over whether such an arrangement could maintain organisational stability and leadership control within the state unit while balancing the influence of a powerful leader like Shivakumar.

The Vokkaliga question

Congress strategists are also evaluating electoral arithmetic beyond AHINDA. While Siddaramaiah may be able to consolidate AHINDA support, questions remain whether Shivakumar can independently bring a decisive consolidation of Vokkaliga votes towards Congress in the Old Mysuru region, where the community holds political influence and where the JD(S), led by former prime minister HD Deve Gowda and his son and Union Minister HD Kumaraswamy, continue to remain a significant political force.

The Congress leadership is also said to be worried about electoral vulnerabilities arising from SIR-related concerns and voter-base consolidation. Internal assessments reportedly suggest nearly 30 Congress MLAs won narrowly in 2023 with margins between 2,000 and 5,000 votes, making voter retention crucial before 2028.

The party is simultaneously focused on converting welfare guarantees into long-term political support. Schemes such as free bus travel for women and direct cash transfers are being viewed as instruments to strengthen Congress’ grassroots voter base.

Congress strategists are also aware that, despite leadership challenges within the BJP’s Karnataka unit, the BJP central leadership has already begun preparations for 2028. Recent signals from BJP leadership have reinforced the message that Karnataka remains a key southern battleground. At this point, Shivakumar’s role as the state Congress chief is equally crucial. It remains to be seen how the party manages to strike the balance.