What’s driving Siddaramaiah-DKS tussle, and how Congress plans to resolve it?

The power tussle for Karnataka’s chief ministerial post has intensified, with Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy DK Shivakumar stepping up political manoeuvring ahead of a crucial Congress high command meeting in Delhi. The discussions come as the state government crosses its halfway mark, raising questions over potential leadership transitions and party stability.

Joining the Capital Beat panel, senior journalists Vijay Grover, Anantha Chinivar, and Prof DS Poornananda analysed the unfolding developments, highlighting the implications for Congress both in Karnataka and nationally. The debate revolves around alleged agreements, caste politics, and the strategic timing of any leadership change.

Both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar maintain that the final decision rests with the Congress high command, yet political signalling on the ground suggests growing manoeuvring from their loyalists. The panel examined the origins, motivations, and possible outcomes of this high-stakes power struggle.

The role of alleged deals and legal challenges

A key factor in the tussle is Shivakumar’s ongoing legal battles. Investigations by the Enforcement Directorate and CBI remain active, and he continues to be out on bail in several cases. Grover noted that this legal context prevented Shivakumar from assuming the CM post immediately after the 2023 elections despite his party loyalty and organisational contributions.

Grover highlighted, “The Congress will not want an embarrassment in case it hands over power to Shivakumar and a sitting chief minister faces arrest.” The focus, therefore, is on cautious timing and strategic negotiation to balance ambition with political risk.

While Siddaramaiah has completed two and a half years in office, Grover emphasised the stability he has brought to governance, particularly in delivering key schemes to backward and marginalised communities. He also noted the symbolic significance of maintaining an OBC leader in the state, aligning with Congress messaging on social inclusion under Rahul Gandhi.

Bargaining, compensation, and party dynamics

The panel noted that loyalists on both sides are actively lobbying and preparing “chargesheets” against each other, reflecting a mix of bargaining and political signalling. Grover suggested that Shivakumar might seek assurance of continuity in key positions such as KPCC president and future election roles, even if immediate leadership change does not occur.

Chinivar described the negotiation as “hard bargaining”, where Shivakumar’s acceptance depends on Siddaramaiah’s consent. He emphasised that a smooth transition is contingent upon mutual agreement: “Any transition has to happen over a period of time. It cannot happen abruptly without Sidaramaiah’s complete acceptance.”

The panel discussed potential compensatory measures if a power transition is delayed, such as a cabinet reshuffle or public assurances regarding future elections. Both Grover and Chinivar stressed that the Congress high command faces the delicate task of managing egos, electoral bases, and party cohesion while avoiding destabilisation of the state government.

Additional contenders and caste considerations

Prof Poornananda addressed the involvement of other political figures, including G Parameshwara, noting that while he has made claims, he is unlikely to be a serious contender due to a lack of broad support. Meanwhile, caste-based organisations like the Adichunchanagiri seer and the Vokkaliga Sangha have openly backed Shivakumar, further complicating the decision-making process.

The panel also explored the possibility of a compromise candidate, such as Mallikarjun Kharge, assuming the chief ministerial role to maintain social balance and manage backward and Dalit representation in the state. Such a scenario would allow the Congress to navigate sensitive caste dynamics while mitigating the risk of internal dissent.

High command meeting and potential outcomes

Both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar are reportedly scheduled to meet the Congress high command in Delhi. Panelists indicated that no immediate resolution is expected, as the leadership must weigh multiple factors, including electoral strategy, caste equations, and organisational loyalty.

Grover suggested that Siddaramaiah could voluntarily step down after January 15, when he becomes the longest-serving chief minister of Karnataka, potentially paving the way for a negotiated transition or compensatory arrangements for Shivakumar. He further noted that “Shivakumar will still have to wait and watch, but he has made his point very clear that no demand should be made to remove him from the post of KPCC president.”

Chinivar echoed that the process may be delayed until after the state budget, giving the high command time to manage expectations and ensure stability. Both stressed that Shivakumar is likely to abide by the high command decision, avoiding any political alliance with rival parties that could jeopardise his career in Karnataka.

The panel concluded that the high command faces a delicate balancing act, managing senior leaders’ ambitions while safeguarding governance, voter base, and party credibility. The resolution of this tussle could shape the Congress’s political fortunes in Karnataka through 2028 and beyond.

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