DK Shivakumar vs Siddaramaiah: 'CM change could happen in November' | Interview

As Karnataka’s Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar openly voices his aspirations to succeed Chief Minister Siddaramaiah mid-term, political dynamics within the state’s ruling party have intensified. With Congress’s stability at stake, all eyes are on whether the high command will act decisively. Former Professor of Political Science at the University of Mysore, Chambi Puranik, unpacks the implications for Karnataka’s politics.

Do Shivakumar’s comments suggest the power-sharing agreement is breaking down?

I wouldn’t call it crumbling. It’s a matter of timing. While some of Shivakumar’s supporters, including Ramanagara’s MLA (Iqbal Hussain), claim he has over 100 MLAs behind him, it’s too early for this show of strength. Much of this push comes from his camp’s frustration over not securing key positions in government bodies. It’s less about public service and more about maintaining political relevance.

Also read: Efforts may fail, but not prayers, says DK Shivakumar amid CM change buzz

Do you expect a smooth transition of power?

Yes, I believe the change will be smooth, possibly around November. Siddaramaiah is politically shrewd and knows when to step aside. Shivakumar, for all his strengths, lacks polish and can be aggressive. But he’s determined. The handover will be managed with the high command’s backing, much like Shivakumar raised Siddaramaiah’s hand at the Davangere convention.

Is there a formal agreement for a leadership change mid-term?

There’s no public document, but the arrangement is clear in practice. Shivakumar’s efforts were crucial in securing the Congress mandate, and the high command knows this. Siddaramaiah’s appeal lies in his experience and ability to unify groups, but Shivakumar’s time is near. His role as the sole Deputy Chief Minister signals that the party is preparing for his elevation.

Also read: Siddaramaiah's name proposed as member of Congress' OBC advisory panel

Is Shivakumar using public statements as a strategy to pressure the high command?

Yes, but it’s calculated and sanctioned. Congress’s leadership style allows this space. Shivakumar is signalling his readiness without directly challenging Siddaramaiah. His recent comments, like “political efforts may fail, but prayers will not”, are subtle yet clear indicators of his intent. The high command has assured him his turn will come.

Could delayed intervention from the high command risk defections or instability?

Unlikely. The BJP doesn’t have the leadership right now to engineer a major split. If the JDS and BJP combine, Kumaraswamy would be their best bet, but Congress’s 136 seats give it a cushion. Even if defections occur, Shivakumar and the party are well-placed to retain power.

Also read: Why Congress won't replace Siddaramaiah with DK Shivakumar as Karnataka CM

How do you see the BJP and JDS factoring into this scenario?

If Congress mishandles the transition, it risks losing OBC votes to the JDS, which would benefit the BJP in a three-way split. But as of now, the BJP’s internal challenges limit its ability to capitalise. Yediyurappa’s influence remains key, especially among Lingayats, but without JDS support, BJP can’t make significant gains.

Do you believe the Congress will complete its term in Karnataka?

Yes. Despite internal tussles, Congress is set to complete its term. Shivakumar is positioning himself as the next chief minister, and the party machinery will likely ensure a stable transition when the time comes. Karnataka’s voters are pragmatic and will judge the party on its ability to manage this change responsibly.

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