Karnataka: All eyes on special Cabinet meeting; a new caste survey on the cards?

2015 caste census

The caste census in question was originally conducted in 2015 when Siddaramaiah was the Chief Minister. The report was prepared under the leadership of G Kantaraj, who headed the Karnataka State Commission for Backward Classes. However, the report was never made public.

It is widely believed that the data showed a lower population for dominant castes like Vokkaligas and Lingayats, and a higher population for backward and minority communities. Since Vokkaligas and Lingayats wield a strong political influence in Karnataka, releasing such data could have shifted the state’s political balance. To avoid this, the report was kept hidden for nearly ten years.

After Siddaramaiah returned as Chief Minister in 2023, pressure started mounting to release the 2015 caste survey. But he postponed tabling the report in the Cabinet at least four times, fearing a backlash from dominant caste groups.

Also read: Decision for fresh caste census Cong high command’s, not mine: Karnataka CM

Unscientific data

On April 11, Siddaramaiah met Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge in Delhi and discussed the issue. He claimed that the high command had agreed to go ahead with tabling the caste census. After tabling the report in the cabinet, two special Cabinet meetings followed.

Rahul Gandhi reportedly supported releasing the caste census. However, when the report was finally tabled, many ministers raised objections. The main reason: leaders from the Vokkaliga and Lingayat communities had already conveyed strong messages to the Congress leadership, saying their communities had not fully participated in the 2015 survey and that the data was unscientific.

Now, in a third special Cabinet meeting being held on June 12, sources said, it is almost certain the government will announce a fresh caste survey, again based on suggestions from the high command.

Reasons for fresh survey

The Congress government is giving several reasons for this reversal, according to sources.

First, they argued that some communities said the 2015 survey was unscientific and to keep their faith, the government is going in for a resurvey.

Also read: Congress high command wants new caste survey in Karnataka: DK Shivakumar

Outdated data

Vokkaliga and Lingayat leaders pointed out that the report listed sub-castes separately for Hindu groups but did not do so for Muslim communities, creating imbalance in the data. Further, they also said that the survey was based on the 2011 Census, and since more than ten years have passed, the population figures are outdated.

Moreover, the Union Government is planning a new national census in 2026, and the state’s old data may become irrelevant.

The Congress also appeared to concur with this view and said that according to convention, any caste or population survey is valid only for ten years. After that, it must be updated.

Since the 2015 survey is now ten years old, they claim it is reasonable to do a resurvey. However, this explanation has raised questions. If the government was aware of all these issues, why did the Chief Minister and other ministers repeatedly say that the 2015 caste census would be accepted?

Political pressure

Meanwhile, critics say the government has shifted its position under pressure and is using technical excuses to delay action.

Also read: Karnataka halts caste census; to re-evaluate data

There is clear political pressure from dominant communities. Even though the revised version of the report—submitted by Jayaprakash Hegde in 2024—was based on the same 2015 data, Lingayat and Vokkaliga leaders strongly opposed it. They claimed that their populations were undercounted. Though ministers did not openly oppose the report in the Cabinet, leaders from these communities staged protests, warning the government not to go ahead.

This led to delays, and ministers were asked to study the draft and submit their opinions before any final decision.

At the same time, AHINDA groups—short for minorities, backward classes, and Dalits—who have been loyal to the Congress, are disappointed. They have long demanded that the caste survey report be implemented. Now, they feel betrayed. They believe the government has bowed to pressure from dominant castes.

Opposition parties have also criticised the Congress, demanding to know who will take responsibility for the money spent on the 2015 survey, which may now be discarded.

Missed opportunity

Political analyst D Umapathi called this a 'failure' on Siddaramaiah’s part. He said the Chief Minister missed a historic chance to uplift backward communities.

“By stepping back, Siddaramaiah has lost a big opportunity to support the downtrodden and show bold leadership. The Congress is trying to protect its voter base among dominant castes, but in doing so, it may lose the trust of AHINDA groups as well,” Umapathi said.

The government is now in a difficult position, caught between the expectations of its core AHINDA voters and the influence of dominant caste groups like Vokkaligas and Lingayats. The decision to conduct a fresh survey may seem like a safe move politically, but it could further delay justice and damage the party’s credibility.