Why Cong won't replace Siddaramaiah with DK Shivakumar as Karnataka CM

There is growing speculation within the Congress in Karnataka about a possible change in leadership. Some leaders are unhappy, and a few MLAs have openly expressed dissatisfaction. However, insiders say this noise is not really about replacing Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. Instead, it's mostly about demands for cabinet reshuffles and development funds for constituencies — while the government is already facing financial pressure due to the guarantee schemes.

The Congress high command, despite being aware of the unrest, has made it clear that there are no plans to remove Siddaramaiah. In fact, they consider him a key asset — not just for Karnataka, but for the Congress party at the national level.

Also Read: ‘Yes, I will be’ CM for 5 years: Siddaramaiah puts speculation to rest

Randeep Singh Surjewala, the AICC in-charge for Karnataka, arrived in Bengaluru a few days ago to meet Congress MLAs and address their concerns. These meetings were called after several MLAs complained about not receiving funds and about some ministers not cooperating with their requests.

While a few MLAs also expressed dissatisfaction with Siddaramaiah himself, most of the criticism was aimed at ministers for ignoring their demands.

Siddaramaiah confident, in control

At the same time, Siddaramaiah has welcomed internal feedbacks. He allowed all MLAs to meet Surjewala to voice their concerns. This shows he is confident and in control. He is using these meetings to show the high command that he still enjoys strong support.

As one minister in Siddaramaiah’s cabinet told The Federal, “The real issue is not about changing the CM. It’s about some MLAs not getting ministerial posts and some ministers not cooperating in development works. It’s internal balancing, not leadership change.”

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge also tried to calm the nerves. He recently said that only the high command would decide on the CM post and asked MLAs to stop discussing the matter. While this was meant to ease the situation, Siddaramaiah’s firm statement that he will serve a full term was seen as a message not only to DK Shivakumar but also to the high command — including Kharge himself.

Also Read: Karnataka Cong firmly behind Siddaramaiah, no leadership change: Shivakumar

DK Shivakumar, who has long aspired to become Chief Minister, was hoping that the Congress would stick to an unconfirmed internal decision to hand over the CM post to him after 2.5 years. But that has not worked in his favour. Instead, Siddaramaiah has only grown stronger even in his second term as CM. He has now clearly declared that he will remain CM for the full five-year term. This forced Shivakumar to admit that he has no choice but to support Siddaramaiah.

The AHINDA factor

Siddaramaiah’s strength comes mainly from his deep support among the AHINDA groups — a Kannada acronym that stands for minorities (Alpasankhyataru), backward classes (Hindulidavaru), and Dalits (Dalitaru). These three communities make up the largest vote base for the Congress in Karnataka. Siddaramaiah has built and maintained trust with these groups over the years, and they continue to support him strongly.

Also Read: Congress has no plans to replace Siddaramaiah with Shivakumar as Karnataka CM: Report

Congress leaders believe that removing Siddaramaiah now would upset this crucial voter base, which would hurt the party in the state. A senior KPCC office-bearer told The Federal that the party cannot afford such a risk.

National face for social justice

Siddaramaiah’s national importance is also growing. The AICC has given him a key role in reviving the party’s support among Other Backward Classes (OBCs) across the country. A 24-member OBC Advisory Council is being formed, with senior leaders from across India, and Siddaramaiah is expected to host its first meeting in Karnataka. This is a clear sign that the high command trusts him and wants to project him as a national face for the party’s social justice mission.

He has also been asked to lead the caste census in Karnataka — a politically-sensitive task that could shape future Congress policies and power-sharing plans. Only a senior leader with mass appeal like Siddaramaiah can handle this without causing instability. The high command knows that removing him now could lead to a backlash from OBCs, Dalits, and minorities — the very communities it wants to retain.

Also Read: DK Shivakumar and I on good terms, says Karnataka CM amid power tussle

Siddaramaiah also plays a key role in attacking the Modi government on issues like unfair fund allocation and tax devolution, boosting Congress’s southern appeal.

“Ignoring him would backfire,” said a Congress leader, adding, “Siddaramaiah can unite southern politics for Congress — DK Shivakumar lacks that kind of charisma.”

Above all, Siddaramaiah reportedly enjoys the backing of around 90 MLAs, and the remaining MLAs are taking a neutral stand. They are only worried about the need for funds for their respective constituencies. And those who have complained have listed the group of persons who are influencing the CM and “misguiding” him, according to a senior leader in the KPCC.

Recent controversies have weakened DKS

The Vokkaligas may support DK Shivakumar in the next election, especially if he is projected as the Chief Ministerial face. However, a large section of Vokkaligas will continue to back the JD(S), which has deep roots in the Old Mysuru region. In such a scenario, the Congress may not gain much additional support from the Vokkaligas.

But the bigger question is — what about AHINDA? Replacing Siddaramaiah could alienate the minorities, backward classes, and Dalits who form Congress’s core base in Karnataka. Their loyalty lies with him, and losing that support could hurt the party electorally. That’s why the high command won’t risk replacing him, sources added.

Also, recent controversies have weakened DK's standing. Allegations linking him indirectly to the RCB celebrations stampede, where 11 people died, and honeytrap cases involving several leaders have hurt the party’s image. These incidents have made the high command more cautious about promoting him to the CM post, fearing it could create a split or damage the party’s voter base.

Also Read: Karnataka Congress crisis: High command deploys crisis team

DK Shivakumar reportedly tried to persuade Mallikarjun Kharge to take over as the Chief Minister of Karnataka if the Congress leadership denied him the post. The idea was to retain the AHINDA vote base, with Shivakumar pledging support to Kharge. Since Siddaramaiah would find it politically difficult to oppose Kharge - risking an anti-Dalit image - this was seen as a clever move to corner him.

However, party sources say that Kharge, as AICC president, plays a key national role and is seen as a father figure within the Congress, especially in coordinating with INDIA bloc partners. He has no interest in state politics.