Congress in ferment in Kerala as Sudhakaran may be shown the door

“Let K Sudhakaran continue, let Pinarayi’s rule end” — read a massive flex board that appeared in front of the KPCC headquarters earlier this week.

Erected by a faction of supporters under the banners of the Kerala Students Union (KSU) and Youth Congress, the banner was a public show of defiance, even as the Congress high command considered replacing Sudhakaran as the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president.

The timing of the board, amid intensifying talk of a leadership change, underscored the internal tensions brewing within the Congress unit in Kerala.

Congress in flux

The Congress in Kerala is again at a political crossroads, with the AICC seriously considering a reshuffle of its leadership team in the state. Sudhakaran, a combative face from Kerala’s northern belt, is facing resistance from within the ranks as well as growing unease in Delhi over his confrontational style and limited appeal across regions and communities.

In his place, four-time Pathanamthitta MP Anto Antony has emerged as the high command’s preferred option. His candidacy is being quietly pushed by sections of the Catholic clergy and community leaders, especially from central Kerala — a traditional Congress stronghold the party is keen to consolidate ahead of the upcoming electoral battles.

Antony’s rise also reflects an attempt by the party to rework its caste-community equations and move towards a more broad-based leadership.

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Sudhakaran’s leadership

Sudhakaran, a 73-year-old political strongman from Kannur, had been a polarizing yet effective leader. Known for his fiery rhetoric and grassroots connect, he had steered the Congress through turbulent waters since his appointment in June 2021.

Under his leadership, the party secured significant victories in the by-elections and a near-sweep in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, winning 18 of Kerala’s 20 seats for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

Yet, his health had become a point of contention. Rumours, which Sudhakaran dismissed as “baseless”, swirled about his declining stamina, fuelled by a faction within the party eager to see new blood at the helm. “I am perfectly healthy,” he declared in Kannur the other day, his voice brimming with defiance. “I will step down only after ousting the LDF government.”

Waning Christian support

The Congress faces an existential challenge: regaining its eroding voter base, particularly among the Christian community, which comprised 18-19 per cent of Kerala’s 3.3 crore population. The unexpected victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Suresh Gopi in the Thrissur 2024 Lok Sabha election sent shockwaves through the Congress.

Thrissur, a Christian stronghold, saw the Congress relegated to the third place, prompting introspection about the party’s disconnect with a key demographic.

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Anto Antony

Enter Anto Antony, a soft-spoken yet resilient politician whose name emerged as the frontrunner to replace Sudhakaran. Anto Antony, 60, had represented Pathanamthitta since 2009, building a reputation as a dependable MP with strong ties to central Kerala’s Christian communities.

His candidacy gained traction after reports surfaced that the Congress high command, led by Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, had summoned Sudhakaran to Delhi last week, to discuss a leadership transition. Sources indicated that Antony’s name was favoured not only for his electoral track record but also for his potential to mend ties with Christian voters.

“There are more prominent Christian leaders in the party, including the seasoned Benny Behanan. But Anto is being preferred over him because Behanan belongs to the Jacobite denomination, which already leans towards the LDF. The current dissent is largely from the Catholic side, and there’s a growing perception that they are open to engaging with the BJP. So, the leadership change is also a form of social engineering, aimed at addressing that shift,” said a senior Congress leader from central Kerala.

Catholic Church

The Kerala Catholic Bishops Council (KCBC) had long expressed concerns about the community’s underrepresentation in the party’s leadership, especially after the retirement of AK Antony and the passing of Oommen Chandy, both towering Christian figures. This unprecedented intervention, even though something which the Church openly denies, sparked controversy.

Posters titled “Save Congress” appeared in Aluva and Poonjar, criticizing Antony and another contender, Peravoor MLA Sunny Joseph, as unfamiliar to grassroots workers. The Catholic Church, through its mouthpiece Deepika, denied lobbying for any candidate, emphasizing its commitment to secularism.

“The Church has no interest in determining party positions,” read an editorial on May 6. Yet, the perception of ecclesiastical influence lingered, complicating the Congress’ efforts to project unity.

Also read: 9 years as Kerala CM: Why Pinarayi Vijayan's legacy is a paradox

Sudhakaran and Ezhavas

Some political observers think that Sudhakaran’s potential removal might spark concerns over alienating the Ezhava community, a key OBC group to which he belongs. The Ezhavas, making up about 23 per cent of Kerala’s population, have historically been a secular voting bloc, with a slight tilt towards the Left.

However, the BJP’s growing influence in this demographic following the 2024 election has unsettled both the Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist). Replacing Sudhakaran, the third consecutive Ezhava KPCC president after VM Sudheeran and Mullappally Ramachandran, with a Christian leader could further erode the party’s support in this vital community.

To address this, the high command might consider appointing Adoor Prakash, another Ezhava MP, to a significant organizational position.

Tharoor backs Sudhakaran

The internal dynamics were further muddied by senior leaders’ dissent. K Muraleedharan, a former KPCC president, and Shashi Tharoor publicly backed Sudhakaran, arguing that a leadership change before the Nilambur by-election and the 2026 Assembly elections was ill-timed. “No one has demanded Sudhakaran’s removal,” Muraleedharan said, questioning Antony’s visibility among workers.

Tharoor, the Thiruvananthapuram MP, echoed this, citing Sudhakaran’s electoral successes. AICC general secretary KC Venugopal, a key player, urged discipline, dismissing media speculation as “baseless”.

Meanwhile, Sunny Joseph, a three-time MLA and Sudhakaran loyalist, emerged as a dark horse. Joseph’s clean image and rapport with Catholic bishops, particularly in the high ranges, made him a compelling alternative. His candidacy, however, could face resistance from those wary of Sudhakaran’s influence lingering through a proxy.

Also read: Nilambur bypoll: High-stakes battle between LDF, UDF after Anvar's exit

Sudhakaran is defiant

As the Congress deliberated, the timing of the transition became critical. The Nilambur by-election, with its notification expected by May 9, loomed large. The high command, advised by AICC general secretary Deepa Das Munshi’s report, aimed to finalize the new KPCC president beforehand to project stability. Munshi’s report highlighted Sudhakaran’s achievements but underscored the need for a leader to counter the BJP’s growing appeal among Christians and the LDF’s Hindu consolidation.

In Kannur, Sudhakaran remained defiant, addressing rallies with his trademark vigour. “I met Rahul Gandhi, and he hugged me warmly,” he told reporters, dismissing removal talks. Yet, his meeting with AK Antony hinted at a strategic plea for a dignified exit.

Long-term risks

Anto Antony’s potential ascent, backed by community leaders, aimed to reclaim Christian votes but risks alienating others. Sudhakaran’s exit, if mishandled, could fracture party unity. As posters and whispers filled Kerala’s streets, the high command faced a tightrope walk. The decision, expected imminently, would shape not just the KPCC but the Congress’ prospects in a state where power had eluded the party since 2016.