INDIA bloc or not, Congress and Left will fight it out in Kerala

The Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), which heads the LDF, has made this clear in so many words more than once. And unlike in most parts of India where the Left is electorally weak, the substantial number of minority votes – both Muslims and Christians – in Kerala need not necessarily swing the Congress-led UDF way.

The changing dynamics in what remains the Left’s only electoral bastion now in India are evident.

Congress dynamics

On March 25, a day after Rahul Gandhi was disqualified from the Lok Sabha, Kerala PCC president K Sudhakaran hoped that the Left would support the Congress candidate if the Election Commission declares a by-election for the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency.

Although the intention of the KPCC president was not to secure backing from their primary foe but to make a political point, this was that rarest of rare occasion where the Congress sought the help of the CPI(M) in Kerala.

Political observers agree that nobody expects the Congress and the CPI(M) to fight the BJP together in Kerala given that the Hindu nationalist party has yet to secure any representation in the Lok Sabha from the state.

The Kerala CPI(M) – unlike its counterparts in West Bengal or Tripura – has consistently maintained a tough stance vis-a-vis Rahul Gandhi and the Congress despite its general secretary hobnobbing with the grand old party leadership in Delhi.

This attitude is not difficult to comprehend. After all, Rahul Gandhi was instrumental in the UDF’s thumping victory in 2019 when it swept 19 out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala.

Wayanad battle

The CPI(M) called Rahul Gandhi’s decision to contest from Wayanad as one of a political novice who lacked the resolve to confront the BJP in the Hindi heartland.

“Rahul’s candidature might have given them 19 seats from Kerala but they do not realise the cost of it,” said a CPI(M) leader.

“Had he not contested from Wayanad, we are pretty sure that (BJP’s) Smriti Irani would not have won from Amethi. It was pretty sure that all the MPs from Kerala -- irrespective of the UDF-LDF divide -- will stand against the BJP government. Then what was the point of Rahul contesting from here?

“He should have taken on the BJP from one of the constituencies in Karnataka if he wanted to boost the morale of their party in South,” added the CPI(M) state committee member.

With a faction of Congress leaders attempting to position Rahul Gandhi as the potential prime ministerial nominee for the INDIA coalition, the Left parties are about to face a trickier situation than 2019 in Kerala as the primary contenders opposing him in the Wayanad constituency.

Congress view

A Congress leader told The Federal that there was no reason for Rahul Gandhi to forgo his Wayanad constituency.

“We do not know about the UPCC president’s statement that he would contest from Amethi. He lost from Amethi in 2019 for a string of reasons which is entirely irrelevant this time. But in Wayanad we are literally unchallenged,” the leader said.

“Even local leaders of the LDF secretly support him (in 2019). So, it’s a safe seat on any count. It will also ensure that he spearheads the campaign across the country. If he goes to Amethi or some other place, this won’t be possible,” said the Congress leader.

Asked whether the participation of both parties in the INDIA formation would affect the decision of Rahul Gandhi, the Congress leader said this was actually an advantage. “Rahul Gandhi being the leader of INDIA, the pressure will be on the Left parties. Politically they will have to back him.”

But the Kerala CPI(M) has made it very clear that they will not be making it any easy for Rahul Gandhi just because he helms the Congress and the new nationwide formation.

Marxist stance

CPI(M) state secretary MV Govindan explained it in unequivocal terms.

“We have shown our support for Rahul Gandhi when he faced disqualification. That’s where we stand politically. We even hit the streets in protest. However, running against him in the elections is a separate issue. Our battle with the Congress is driven by political factors, and there is no inconsistency in forming a strategic alliance with them in areas where we lack strength if it ultimately bolsters the opposition against the BJP,” Govindan told The Federal.

The CPI(M) had pointedly omitted the Congress from the list of invitees to their seminar on the Uniform Civil Code. UDF constituent IUML got an invite but it did not attend as the Congress was not on the list.

Even though the Kerala assembly eventually passed a unanimous resolution against the UCC, the Marxists showed their dissatisfaction with the Congress alleging it lacked a definite stance against the UCC.

“As far as we are concerned, INDIA is not a coalition or alliance but a political block opposing the ideology of the BJP. So, it won’t be a problem for us to take on the Congress in Kerala,” says a Delhi-based CPI(M) leader from Kerala.

In 2019, the Congress achieved its best ever results after 1984 by obtaining 47.48 per cent of the total votes -- and 19 out of 20 seats. They had a positive swing of 5.37 per cent in their favour.

On the other hand, the LDF saw a decline of 2.92 per cent in its vote share.

Changing fortunes

Riding on the Sabarimala issue, the BJP-led NDA also benefited from the polarization, gaining 2.78 per cent of the votes and achieving an all-time high of 15.64 per cent of the total votes though they failed to translate it to a sea.

The margin of victory of every UDF candidate was substantial whereas the only LDF candidate who won had a wafer-thin majority.

But the LDF introspected the debacle meticulously and bounced back in the LSG elections of 2020 and followed it up by a thumping victory in the assembly elections by securing 99 of the 140 seats in 2021.

Analysing the 2021 results, it becomes evident that the ruling LDF holds an advantage in 17 out of the 20 Lok Sabha constituencies. However, political dynamics in Kerala dictate that voters approach Assembly and Lok Sabha elections using distinct parameters.

The Congress typically holds an advantage in the latter, barring in the 2004 elections when it suffered a significant defeat where the minority votes did the trick.

Minority support

In 2019, the CPI(M) experienced a significant decline in its Hindu voter support due to the Sabarimala row. Muslim voters rallied solidly behind Rahul Gandhi to counter the BJP, resulting in the Left’s rout although it was ruling Kerala.

Once again, minority votes are expected to play a crucial role. The CPI(M) has notably expanded its presence in Muslim communities following the anti-CAA protests. Many Muslim groups which previously were averse of sharing a stage with the communists have now started appreciating them.

With the UCC a looming concern, the Left perceives a chance to capitalize on the situation. But the UDF will likely rely on the anti-incumbency sentiment that is beginning to emerge against the Pinarayi Vijayan government.

The CPI(M)’s gestures like the decision to provide educational support in Kerala to the young Muslim boy in Muzaffarnagar in Uttar Pradesh who was slapped in a school by other boys at the urging of his teacher has won it widespread appreciation among Muslims nationally including in Kerala.

The upcoming Puthuppally Assembly by-election following the death of Congress leader and former chief minister Oommen Chandy will be a test for the coming general elections although many observers anticipate that his son Chandy Oommen will most likely retain the seat for the Congress.

But even if the Congress wins there, the CPI(M)’s stance vis-à-vis that party is not going to change in the next Lok Sabha battle.