Will Pinarayi Vijayan's 'welfare gamble' pay off in 2026 Assembly elections?

But when Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan entered the media room to brief journalists on the decisions taken at the October 29 Cabinet meet, he turned the moment into a political counter-offensive.

Instead of displaying any pressure, he unveiled a flurry of welfare measures, including a hike in social security pensions and the expansion or introduction of several key schemes, signalling that the ruling LDF intends to go on the offensive ahead of the local body and 2026 Assembly elections.

Slew of welfare measures

The announcement, which came after days of speculation, has already triggered ripples across the political spectrum. The welfare measures included a hike in the monthly social security pension for over 60 lakh beneficiaries from economically weaker sections from ₹1,600 to ₹2,000, closer to ₹2,500 — a promise that was made in the LDF’s 2021 election manifesto but had remained largely unfulfilled amid fiscal constraints.

He also announced a Women’s Safety Pension of ₹1,000 per month for 31.34 lakh women, aged between 35 and 60 years, who are not currently covered under any existing welfare schemes.

Additionally, a ‘Connect to Work’ scholarship of ₹1,000 per month will be introduced for educated job seekers in the 18–30 age group, alongside several other initiatives aimed at expanding the state’s social protection network. Together, these moves mark a decisive shift from defensive politics to pre-election populism.

Series of controversies

For much of the recent past, the LDF government has found itself firefighting a series of controversies from the Sabarimala gold heist to, the PM SHRI row. The latter — a dispute over Kerala’s reluctance to implement the Union government’s flagship school upgrade programme — exposed ideological faultlines and fuelled charges that the state was letting political opposition to the BJP override developmental interests.

Also read: Pinarayi govt puts PM SHRI scheme on hold following CPI pushback

But with welfare politics as its strongest card, the ruling front is returning to familiar terrain. Political observers say that the new round of welfare announcements reflects a strategic reset aimed at consolidating traditional support bases among lower-income and marginalised groups.

The LDF’s first term (2016–21) had been defined by crisis management — rebuilding after floods, handling Nipah outbreaks, and managing welfare delivery during COVID-19. The second term, however, has been beset by controversies and governance fatigue.

Welfare leader

By announcing these schemes now, the chief minister is attempting to recast his image as a welfare leader rather than a combative ideologue. The pension hike in particular carries symbolic value: it ties back to the LDF’s manifesto commitment and resonates across class lines.

Economists point out that Kerala’s welfare pension network reaching nearly 60 lakh beneficiaries forms one of the largest direct benefit systems in the country. Even a modest hike, therefore, has deep political resonance.

Opposition hits out

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has found itself in a tactical bind. On one hand, it cannot afford to oppose welfare measures without appearing anti-poor; on the other, it risks losing narrative space if the government’s announcements dominate public discourse. Within hours of the Cabinet meeting, senior leader Ramesh Chennithala accused the government of “election gimmickry,” arguing that most of the schemes were repackaged versions of existing programmes.

“The Chief Minister is making unsustainable promises at the fag end of his term. This is nothing short of political theatre. The government seems convinced it will not return to power and is therefore burdening the next administration with its fiscal excesses,” said Chennithala.

IUML leader PK Firose wrote on his social media handles, “When the PM SHRI deal with the RSS for a third term fell apart and backfired, the chief minister has now come up with another deception. He is making grand promises by raising pensions, offering benefits to women and youth in abundance. After ruling for nine and a half years without remembering the people of Kerala, he now tries to mislead them with tall promises at the very end of his tenure. The Left government is one that already has a foot in the grave. Even the Lord doesn’t heed the repentance of those in their death throes."

High-stakes gamble

Kerala’s finances remain under stress, with growing revenue deficits and limited room for welfare expansion. Central fund devolution has been declining, while the state’s borrowing limits have tightened under the Centre’s fiscal discipline framework.

Also read: Kerala to declare itself free of extreme poverty: A moment of pride and questions

Still, the LDF appears willing to take calculated risks. Officials in the finance department indicate that much of the new spending may be deferred to the next budget cycle, effectively placing the onus on future fiscal adjustments.

An official who requested anonymity, pointed out, "It's a high-stakes gamble. But politically, it could pay off if it stabilises the government’s popularity before the next elections."

Understanding Kerala's pulse

The upcoming local body elections likely to be held next month will serve as the first major test of whether these measures have cut through. The LDF continues to command a majority in local bodies after its strong showing in 2020, though recent ground reports point to a more competitive contest this time, with signs of governance fatigue beginning to surface.

Pinarayi Vijayan has made it clear that the government will go to the people with welfare and development as its main focus, giving priority over minority or majority politics. The declaration of extreme poverty eradication, the opening of major stretches of national highways, the Vizhinjam port and other infrastructure projects, along with the major facelift in the IT and related industrial sectors, will form the core of the LDF’s showcase.

For the LDF, the timing also helps neutralise the ideological unease created by the PM SHRI controversy. The Opposition had portrayed the government’s reluctance to sign the central MoU as evidence of rigid political dogma, prioritising confrontation with the Union government over state interests. By pivoting to welfare, the government tries to reclaim moral ground by presenting itself as pro-people rather than anti-Centre.

Yet, critics within the Left itself caution against over-reliance on welfare populism at the expense of structural reform.

“Kerala’s development model cannot run on consumption and transfer payments alone,” argued a Left party leader, who also admitted that this has worked in the last couple of elections. “Without politically addressing fiscal imbalance caused by the negligence of the Union government, and the growing influence of the right wing, the benefits from these welfare gestures will be short-lived,” he added.

But whether these grand declarations will be enough to overcome accumulated public fatigue remains uncertain.

Scandals, investigations, and ideological tussles have eroded the government’s earlier aura of discipline and modernity. For many voters, especially the urban middle class, welfare schemes may not outweigh disillusionment over corruption allegations and administrative opacity.

Still, in a state where electoral margins are narrow and welfare politics runs deep, even modest perception shifts can prove decisive. As one senior CPI(M) functionary said, “Kerala voters are demanding, but they are not unforgiving. Remind them who delivered during the crisis years, and they may yet give us another chance.”

What is clear, however, is that the battle lines for 2026 are already being drawn, not just over ideology or governance, but over who best understands the pulse of Kerala’s people.