Kerala local polls turn into political litmus test for LDF, UDF and BJP

The upcoming elections to Kerala’s local self-government institutions have become a crucial political test for the state’s three major political fronts — the CPI(M)-led LDF, Congress-led UDF, and the BJP-led NDA. For the Left, it’s about defending its entrenched dominance; for the Congress, a bid to reclaim lost ground; and for the BJP, a chance to prove that its earlier urban gains were more than just a passing surge.

Congress speeds up candidate selection

In a state where delays and disputes often stall the Congress’s candidate announcements, the speed and decisiveness with which the party declared its list for the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation even before the election notification have drawn attention. Not in recent memory has the party finalised its nominees this early or with this level of internal agreement.

Also Read: Youth Congress rejig reopens factional wounds in party’s Kerala unit

They have already announced 48 of the 101 candidates for the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation even before the official election notification was issued.

The decision to field former MLA K S Sabarinathan from the Kowdiar ward has added weight to the campaign. Sabarinathan, one of the party’s younger public faces, represents an effort to project energy and renewal. The Congress hopes that his candidature can inspire the party’s rank and file in the capital, where morale has been low after consecutive defeats.

“Our first goal is to emerge on top in Thiruvananthapuram — the question of who becomes mayor will arise only after that. A capable leader from the party will take up that role. We are contesting to win, and the circumstances are favourable. The focus of our campaign is on politics and development. It appears, however, that the CPI(M) and BJP are in some sort of understanding,” K S Sabarinathan said on his first day of unofficial campaigning.

Thiruvananthapuram, however, remains a difficult terrain for the Congress. For two successive terms, the UDF has finished third in the corporation, behind both the LDF and the BJP. The Left has held power in the city for almost four decades, while the BJP has emerged as the primary challenger, consolidating its base among the city’s middle class and upper-caste communities.

BJP banks on Rajeev Chandrasekhar’s influence

The BJP is heavily banking on the influence of its state president, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, who is personally leading the campaign. The party hopes that the Sabarimala and gold smuggling controversies, which have put the LDF on the defensive, will work in its favour.

Also Read: Rajeev Chandrasekhar faces protests in Kerala over BPL land ‘scam’

However, the Congress’ renewed effort in the capital introduces an interesting twist. In previous cycles, much of the BJP’s rise in Thiruvananthapuram came at the cost of the Congress’ decline. If the UDF succeeds in reclaiming even a portion of its lost voter base, the immediate casualty could be the BJP’s tally.

For the Left, this triangular fight could be both a comfort and a concern. A split opposition would work to its advantage in some wards, but the re-entry of an energetic Congress could make certain areas unpredictable.

“Of course, there will be some anti-incumbency and that’s natural. But we can counter it with the development work we’ve done and the policies we’ve implemented,” said a senior CPI(M) leader. “It’s clear that Congress votes have shifted to the BJP, which is why they’ve become the main opposition here. We believe there’s still some tacit understanding between them at the grassroots level. But if the Congress retains its base votes, we’re confident of a very comfortable win.”

LDF seeks to regain minority trust

Beyond the capital, the upcoming polls are also marked by a visible change in representation. Kannur, Thrissur, and Kochi Corporations are expected to elect women mayors, as per the reservation pattern this time. That shift will likely influence the political messaging around women’s participation and leadership in local governance.

The LDF, which has long claimed credit for deepening democratic decentralisation through the people’s plan campaigns of the 1990s, is expected to highlight these examples as proof that it continues to empower women and grassroots democracy.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s government has recently tried to set the political tone through new welfare and poverty-reduction initiatives. The declaration of a mission to make Kerala “free from extreme poverty” and the expansion of several social-security schemes are central to the LDF’s narrative.

Also Read: Kerala declares itself free of extreme poverty; experts question data, process

By emphasising continuity in governance, infrastructure improvement, and delivery of welfare benefits, the Left appears determined to make development the main campaign plank. This focus conveniently moves the conversation away from the controversies that have dogged it, like the Sabarimala temple gold scandal case.

Such a shift also carries a social calculation. The LDF has, in recent years, faced visible discomfort among sections of its traditional minority support base, especially Muslims, over issues ranging from local representation to national-level posturing. By foregrounding welfare and governance, the Left hopes to blunt criticism and rebuild trust, particularly among lower-income voters who directly benefit from its schemes.

Congress battles organisational uncertainty

For the Congress-led UDF, the LSGD polls come at a moment of organisational flux. The recent reshuffle of leadership within the state Congress has produced both energy and unease. Some district units still bear the imprint of old rivalries, and local-level coordination remains uneven.

The presence of new faces in the candidate list, however, signals an effort to change perceptions. The party leadership wants to show that the Congress can still mobilise effectively at the grassroots, beyond the optics of its parliamentary debates or social-media activism. The local elections will be an early test of whether these internal adjustments have translated into functional teamwork.

If the Congress manages to perform visibly better than in 2020, it could regain the psychological edge needed to face the 2026 assembly elections. But if its campaign stalls or internal bickering resurfaces, the setback could reinforce the idea that the UDF remains directionless even at the local level.

BJP enters fray with mixed hopes

The BJP, which has worked hard to position itself as Kerala’s third pole, enters these polls with mixed expectations. Its best-ever local body performance came five years ago, when it expanded its vote share significantly in urban areas, especially Thiruvananthapuram. But the party has since struggled to convert that momentum into a broader organisational spread across districts.

This time, the BJP’s campaign appears less about spectacular expansion and more about retaining credibility. The party hopes to consolidate in wards where it already has a foothold and to make smaller inroads in semi-urban belts. Its leaders are aware that a resurgent Congress in the capital could eat into its vote share, but they also believe anti-incumbency in select local bodies may help their prospects elsewhere.

Also Read: Sabarimala row offers Opposition yet another ‘gold(en) opportunity’ to corner LDF

A poor showing, however, would raise difficult questions about the party’s long-term Kerala strategy. Maintaining the image of growth has been vital for the BJP’s morale and fundraising, even if the seat gains have been modest.

Local polls seen as mid-term verdict

Kerala’s local body elections have always carried significance beyond their immediate administrative outcomes. They are effectively the mid-term verdicts on governance and opposition strength. For the LDF, holding on to its municipal and panchayat dominance would reaffirm the appeal of its welfare model and consolidate Pinarayi Vijayan’s leadership within the Left.

In 2020, despite facing multiple challenges — including controversies such as the gold smuggling case and direct allegations against the Chief Minister’s Office — the LDF managed a strong performance. It secured victories in over 530 of the 941 gram panchayats, 108 of 152 block panchayats, 11 of 14 district panchayats, 43 of 86 municipalities, and five of the six corporations. The UDF was close behind in the municipal contests, winning 41, while the BJP secured 19 gram panchayats and two municipalities.

While the LSGD elections are technically local, their results will shape the political mood ahead of 2026. A strong Left showing will strengthen its claim that governance and welfare still trump controversy. A credible Congress comeback, even if limited to key corporations, will reenergise the UDF base and complicate the BJP’s urban narrative.

As the 2025 campaign gathers pace, the state’s wards and panchayats once again become miniature arenas of a much bigger contest, one over narrative, leadership, and the very shape of Kerala’s political future.