Kerala’s LSG Polls: What is behind Congress' stunning comeback?

The results of the Kerala local self-government elections have sent a strong political signal, pointing to a significant setback for the Left Democratic Front after a long period of dominance at both state and local levels.

After ten years in power at the state level, and nearly 15 to 20 years controlling local bodies, the verdict marks more than a routine electoral loss. It reflects a rare reversal that has shaken the narrative of LDF’s political invincibility.

As counting progressed, the numbers made the picture unmistakable, with the United Democratic Front emerging on top across almost every tier of local governance.

UDF surge

The Congress-led UDF secured nearly 500 gram panchayats, a clear majority of block panchayats, seven out of 14 district panchayats, most municipalities and four of the six corporations.

This marks a sharp contrast with the 2020 local body elections, when the LDF had won around 580 gram panchayats, hundreds of blocks, 11 district panchayats, most municipalities and five corporations, a mandate that paved the way for a second consecutive Assembly term.

Also read: Kerala local body polls: BJP ends LDF's 45-year rule in Thiruvananthapuram; Modi reacts

Five years later, that sense of political certainty has clearly worn off.

Capital shock

The biggest jolt for the Left came with the loss of the Thiruvananthapuram corporation. More than an urban body, it had stood as a four-decade-long Left bastion and a symbol of governance and dominance.

The BJP-led NDA's capture of the capital city is not merely a statistical setback but a psychological blow. Though the NDA’s overall presence in Kerala remains limited, with only a few municipalities and panchayats, this breakthrough carries political significance.

It signals an opening for the BJP, especially in urban Kerala.

Anti-incumbency factors

Anti-incumbency appears to be a key reason behind the shift, not only against the state government completing ten years in office but also against Left-run local bodies that have governed for 15 to 20 years.

What once felt like stability has begun to resemble stagnation, particularly in urban and semi-urban areas such as Thiruvananthapuram.

Also read: Cong-led UDF sweeps Kerala LSG polls; BJP captures Thiruvananthapuram

Campaign issues such as the Sabarimala controversy and the gold theft scandal were aggressively highlighted by both the BJP and the UDF, with visible impact in southern Kerala, including the Travancore region.

Minority consolidation

Minority consolidation emerged as another decisive factor, especially in northern and parts of central Kerala, where support tilted strongly towards the UDF.

The visible strain between the CPI(M) and certain Muslim organisations played a crucial role. Campaign messaging led by Jamaat-e-Islami, which placed the CPM and BJP in the same bracket on certain issues, appears to have hurt the LDF’s prospects.

This consolidation altered the electoral arithmetic in key regions.

Rural resilience

Despite the setbacks, the LDF has not suffered a complete collapse. Traditional strongholds in rural areas held firm, particularly in districts like Kannur, Alappuzha and Palakkad.

While corporations such as Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam were lost, rural pockets in districts including Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam continued to support the CPI(M), highlighting that the Left’s organisational strength remains intact in rural Kerala.

What has weakened is its appeal in urban and semi-urban areas, a structural challenge that cannot be addressed through a single campaign or slogan.

Political implications

Even in defeat, the LDF has performed better than in some previous local elections, and its vote base has not evaporated. However, elections are as much about momentum as numbers.

This verdict has punctured the narrative of inevitability surrounding the LDF. For the UDF, it provides renewed confidence, reinforcing the effectiveness of unity and minority consolidation.

For the LDF, the message is clear. Welfare politics alone may no longer suffice, and political renewal in leadership, governance and positioning appears increasingly necessary as Kerala’s political direction begins to shift.

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