
New study flags Kerala’s rising ageing population, inequality
Keralapadanam 2.0 survey shows radical demographic shifts, rising elderly population, persistent gender wage gaps, and new socio-economic challenges for the state
In a sweeping reassessment of Kerala’s social fabric, the Keralapadanam 2.0 study — a 15-year-long people’s survey conducted by a science movement , Kerala Sasthra Sahithya Parishad (KSSP) — lays bare the radical transformations in demography, livelihoods, housing, and inequality across the state.
Conducted from 2004 to 2019, this follow-up to the landmark 2004 study captures the pulse of 5,076 households using meticulous multi-stage random sampling and a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools.
The results offer insight not just into Kerala’s development trajectory but also hint at looming social and economic challenges.
Rise in ageing population
One of the most pronounced findings of the study is Kerala’s rapid population ageing — a trend seldom seen elsewhere in India. Between 2004 and 2019, the proportion of those aged over 60 years rose from 11.8 per cent to 18.6 per cent, with those over 65 increasing from 8.3 per cent to 12.4 per cent.
This places Kerala on par with upper-middle-income nations like Chile, and well above the Indian average of 6.3 per cent.
The state’s population pyramid has flattened dramatically. Unlike India’s youthful base-heavy pyramid, Kerala’s age structure now resembles that of the United States — a barrel shape with a bulge in the 20–24 age group and shrinking numbers below 15.
Also read: Centre’s equality claim ‘biggest fake news in recent times’: Kerala ex-FM Isaac
Child population drops
The child population (0–14 years) has dropped from 21.5 per cent to 17.8 per cent, offsetting, for now, the rise in elderly dependency.
While Kerala still retains a productive majority — 69.8 per cent fall within the working-age group of 15–64 years — the writing on the wall is clear. The current demographic dividend is narrowing and will inevitably give way to a rising dependency burden unless backed by strong policy shifts.
Shifts in workforce structure
Kerala’s workforce structure has also evolved. The state saw a slight decline in male work participation (from 53.5 per cent to 49 per cent) but a marginal increase in female participation (13.1 per cent to 16.2 per cent), underscoring a slow but steady feminisation of the workforce.
Sectorally, the service economy remains dominant, accounting for 48 per cent of the workforce and 64.8 per cent of total income.
While employment in the primary sector (like agriculture) rose marginally to 32.8 per cent, its share of income actually fell — a sign of poor returns and stagnation in farm livelihoods. Meanwhile, real income increased across sectors, most impressively in services (up 84.8 per cent), followed by manufacturing (77 per cent) and primary sector (36 per cent).
Glaring gender disparities
But glaring gender disparities remain. Across sectors, women’s wages are consistently lower — less than half that of men in primary and manufacturing sectors. Even in services, where women have fared slightly better, the wage gap remains a stubborn feature.
In informal jobs and traditional industries, which employ large numbers of women and Scheduled Castes/Tribes, wage growth has been minimal.
Occupational landscape
The occupational landscape is also shifting. While agriculture still employs over 2 million people, there’s been a sharp fall in the number of self-identified farmers.
Meanwhile, employment in traditional industries (coir, handloom, cashew) has dropped by a staggering 82 per cent, while modern industry has seen a 36 per cent rise.
The influx of migrant workers from other states, especially in unskilled sectors like construction, has also contributed to these shifts — these workers remain outside the survey frame as they’re often not part of local electoral rolls.
Material consumption
On the material front, Kerala has made visible strides. Pucca housing increased from 82.9 per cent to 93.7 per cent, with two-thirds of homes now sporting concrete roofs. Ownership of modern consumer durables like refrigerators (up from 32 per cent to 65 per cent) and cars (7 per cent to 20 per cent) signal upward mobility.
LPG usage has surged from 49 per cent to 82 per cent, and access to toilets now stands at 98.9 per cent — most of these improvements predate national-level schemes like Swachh Bharat. Piped drinking water, though improving, still remains limited to a quarter of households, and solid waste management remains a weak link.
Alarmingly, 31.3 per cent of households still lack proper waste disposal methods — a concern given the rise in vector-borne diseases.
New generation challenges
Kerala Padanam 2.0 paints a picture of a state that has advanced economically, socially and infrastructurally — especially in comparison to the rest of India. But beneath these achievements are early signs of stress: an ageing population, persistent gender and caste-based disparities in income, ecological neglect, and a looming dependency burden.
Dr TM Thomas Issac, who released the publication, said, "The latest report clearly shows that Kerala continues to face a new generation of challenges. Our agrarian sector has collapsed under the weight of rising imports. At the same time, inequality has deepened. A new affluent class, making up nearly a quarter of the population, has emerged with a consumerist lifestyle and caste-religious strategies to climb the social ladder. This threatens the very foundations of Kerala’s socio-cultural legacy.”
“To tackle it, we must transform Kerala into a true knowledge society by generating employment for the educated. That means radically rethinking higher education, embracing new technologies, and nurturing a generation with the skills to use them. We simply can’t afford to wait any longer. What we need now is a new version of the literacy movement we launched four decades ago — this time, for skill development", added Dr Issac.
Mirror and a map
KSSP said in a release that the Kerala Study was a major social science survey conducted by them in 2004.
“It was a people-centric study aimed at understanding Kerala from the ground up. Over the past one-and-a-alf decades since the first Kerala Study, the state has undergone significant changes. The second edition of the Kerala Study was undertaken to examine those changes in depth and to assess how various sectors have evolved since the findings of 2004. The data collection for this second study was completed in 2019, and after several phases of evaluation—especially in the post-COVID context—it was published in 2025. The findings are now being presented before the public”, the statement said.
KSSP’s people-centric methodology — using voluntary enumerators and family-based group interviews — lends the study a grounded legitimacy, often absent in official surveys. By capturing both hard data and the perceptions behind it, the survey doesn’t just chronicle change — it demands introspection.
In its essence, the report acts as both mirror and map. It shows a Kerala that has come a long way, but one that must now navigate carefully to ensure its gains are not undone by the very success it built.