Kerala elections 2026: Left plots comeback by wooing Hindus, and minorities

With elections knocking on the doors, the ruling LDF in Kerala is setting the stage for a campaign that aims to repair old wounds, reinforce its developmental credentials, and exploit the fissures weakening its opponents. Both the upcoming local self-government elections and the Assembly polls that follow are being treated as a continuum, and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s government is deploying a carefully crafted strategy to retain its hold on power.

Aggressive Hindu outreach

The timing of the Global Ayyappa Conclave, scheduled for September 20, for which the Kerala High Court has shown a green light, is no coincidence. The event is being projected as a major cultural and religious congregation with undertones of reconciliation. For the LDF, this conclave offers an opportunity to reconnect with estranged Hindu voters who felt alienated during the 2018-19 Sabarimala controversy, when the government’s firm stand on implementing the Supreme Court order allowing women’s entry into the shrine triggered widespread resentment. The backlash was severe and, though the LDF survived electorally, it was clear that a section of the Hindu base had shifted away.

Also read: Kerala govt defends Global Ayyappa Summit amid opposition scepticism

The survival in the 2020 local body elections and the 2021 Assembly elections owed much to the consolidation of minority votes, particularly from the Muslim community. That bulwark, however, appears to be fraying. A discernible drift of Muslim voters toward the UDF was visible in the recent Lok Sabha polls, thanks largely to the consolidation drives of organisations such as the Jamaat-e-Islami. The Jamaat-backed Welfare Party, which has steadily stood with the Congress-led UDF at the grassroots, expects tangible returns in the form of seats from the UDF in local bodies. This could shrink the LDF’s comfort zone, particularly in Muslim-dominated constituencies where even marginal vote swings can tip the balance.

Talks with minorities on cards

This time, to counter the UDF-backed minority groups’ campaign that paints it as leaning towards a “soft Hindutva” stance, the government is also planning a series of consultations with minority communities following the Ayyappa conclave. This could well be dubbed as a balancing act, but many inside the party are confidently pitching for it.

“The BJP gaining ground is a stark reality, and it is costing both us and the UDF. The UDF has managed to rally a section of minorities behind it with false narratives and allies like the Jamaat-e-Islami, which could eat into the votes we secured in 2021. But when it comes to minority votes, it’s easier for us to hold ground as long as we stick to our political line, which is essentially anti-fascist and anti-Hindutva. Hindu caste votes, however, don’t function like that; they demand specific strategies to keep them with us. That’s the real challenge. It’s easy to blame the Left through the lens of so-called political correctness, but navigating realpolitik is a tightrope walk, and that’s exactly what we are doing,” a senior party functionary told The Federal.

UDF’s crises lend breathing space

At the same time, the LDF is buoyed by the disarray in the opposition camp. Anti-incumbency, a natural concern for a government seeking a third straight term, is being blunted by the Congress-led UDF’s internal implosions.

The sexual harassment allegations against Youth Congress state president Rahul Mamkoottathil and his subsequent removal have robbed the party of a young face it hoped to project. Matters have worsened with the IUML’s Youth League leader, PK Firo,z coming under the scanner for alleged financial improprieties. These crises have slowed down the opposition’s momentum and handed the ruling front breathing space.

Also read: UDF wants LDF to clarify stand on tradition ‘violation’ before Sabarimala meet

Further, the UDF is losing face in Wayanad, where its rehabilitation promises after natural calamities have gone unfulfilled. The failure to materialise commitments on housing for displaced families has become a rallying point for the LDF, which is keen to portray itself as the only dependable force in times of crisis.

“We had a definite edge until last month, but the recent controversies, including allegations of sexual misconduct, have jolted our youth force. It’s also true that the Wayanad funds should have been handled more carefully. The Congress leadership erred in managing the internal crisis, and it has cast a shadow over our upbeat mood during the Nilambur by-election. Now, we have a lot of work to do to regain that advantage,” says an IUML leader from Malappuram, who believes this could be last chance for the UDF in Kerala.

Small wins help LDF’s cause

Meanwhile, the state’s financial situation, once a major drag on the government has shown signs of stabilisation. The welfare schemes, long considered the LDF’s hallmark, are reportedly back on track. From pensions to health-care support and student aid, the revival of these measures provides the front with tangible talking points on the campaign trail.

Adding to this momentum are carefully-orchestrated spectacles that blend politics, culture, and sports. The announcement that football icon Lionel Messi will visit Kerala to play friendly matches is being positioned as a people’s celebration and, subtly, a showcase of the government’s ability to place the state on the global map. Similarly, the urban conclave that commenced in Kochi on Friday (September 12), is expected to highlight infrastructure initiatives and the government’s broader developmental agenda.

Also read: Kerala governor’s circular on ‘Partition Horrors Day’ triggers fresh rift with govt

“Kerala, as many of you know, is one of India's federal states, consistently ranked at the forefront of governance and human development. While we acknowledge our limitations, we remain committed to advancing inclusive and sustainable growth. The state government stands in full agreement with the Union government on the principle of cooperative federalism, and we look forward to continued collaboration across all domains of development, especially urban transformation,” said Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan in his inaugural address at the conclave.

Delicate balancing act for Pinarayi

For the LDF, development will be the campaign’s central narrative. Pinarayi, known for his projection of an unflappable and managerial persona, is expected to anchor the campaign around themes of modernisation, welfare delivery, and Kerala’s resilience in the face of crises ranging from floods to the pandemic. The strategy is to downplay the ideological divides that once defined Kerala politics and instead foreground a pragmatic appeal: continuity of governance, stability, and progress.

That does not mean the LDF is ignoring social and community equations. The Global Ayyappa Conclave is being carefully choreographed to assuage the grievances of Hindus, especially upper-caste groups and temple-going communities who felt alienated after the Sabarimala issue. At the same time, overt concessions to one community will be avoided so as not to alienate minorities further. The balancing act is delicate, but one that the LDF seems willing to attempt, particularly as it eyes a historic third consecutive assembly victory.

Also read: Kerala: Bharat Mata image sparks ideological clash, worsens governor-govt feud

Blitz of campaigns likely

For the CPI(M) and its allies, the road ahead is neither easy nor predictable. Anti-incumbency sentiment, especially among youth facing unemployment and small traders struggling with inflation, is palpable. Yet, the political winds have not swung decisively against them. With the UDF entangled in internal strife, the BJP still struggling to expand its footprint beyond pockets, and the minorities recalibrating their strategies, the LDF senses an opening to hold ground.

In the months ahead, Kerala can expect a blitz of government-led initiatives doubling up as campaign platforms—be it welfare scheme launches, development summits, or cultural mega-events. The messaging will be clear: the state has progressed under the Left, and only continuity can ensure stability. Whether this resonates with communities recalibrating their political loyalties will decide if Pinarayi’s government can script another historic return or if the voters opt for change.