Nilambur bypoll campaign marks key shift in Kerala's electoral politics

The film that addressed gender injustice and child marriage within the Muslim community garnered multiple accolades, including the national award for best female actor for Meera Jasmine. Despite its praise, it also faced harsh criticism from many quarters, accused of harbouring an Islamophobic narrative.

Critics of religious extremism

Shoukath, a known secularist and outspoken critic of religious extremism, refused to back down — even once daring to question the reverence people had for the Panakkad Thangal family (from where the IUML president traditionally comes) and calling on the government to probe their household for allegedly promoting pseudo-religious practices.

Despite past tensions, given the Aryadan family’s well-known criticism of religion and Shoukath’s outspoken remarks against the IUML, this time the UDF had set aside those differences. Yet, at the very outset of the campaign, Shoukath is being branded as anti-Muslim—interestingly not by the LDF, as might have been expected, but by PV Anvar, the former MLA who is contesting as an independent.

Like his UDF counterpart, LDF candidate M Swaraj is also no stranger to controversy over remarks ranging from religion to geopolitics. In August 2020, while serving as a CPI(M) MLA and DYFI state secretary, he created an uproar by making a statement on Lord Ayyappa, suggesting that women could visit Sabarimala, prompting a formal complaint for allegedly disparaging a revered deity.

Also read: Ground Report | Nilambur bypoll race hots up, with last-minute twists

Beyond this, Swaraj publicly criticised the Supreme Court’s Babri Masjid demolition verdict as fundamentally flawed, asserting that it undermined secular principles. He has also been a vocal supporter of Palestine, decrying the Gaza conflict, and had openly condemned jingoistic aggression during the recent Operation Sindoor.

Throughout these episodes, Swaraj has remained unapologetic, welcoming legal challenges and asserting his right to critique both religious orthodoxy and state decisions, thereby reinforcing his reputation as an outspoken critic of extremism.

Intense contest

With two candidates known for their secular credentials and outspoken natures in the fray, the contest—and especially, its social media dimension—has become overtly communal, blurring the distinction between identity and communal politics.

Swaraj is caught in a double-edged backlash—criticised by the Hindutva brigade for his pro-minority stance and by minority organisations for a ‘lack of genuine commitment beyond headlines’. (The SDPI has accused him of failing to oppose a controversial, unauthorised Hindu reconversion centre operating in Tripunithura during his tenure as MLA since 2021, which he denies, asserting that the centre was closed down by a court order.)

Also read: Nilambur by-poll: P V Anvar to contest as independent after TMC nomination rejected

Clearly, the Nilambur contest is set to be intense and fiercely political, given the timing and the looming 2026 Assembly election, but the campaign has shown itself to be entirely grounded in identity politics and has crossed into communal territory.

Spectre of communalism

In this remote corner of Malappuram district, known for its secular credentials and pluralistic culture, communal rhetoric is no longer confined to the margins—it has begun to dominate centre stage. Even if Anvar strikes a deal with the UDF and withdraws his candidature, the spectre he has unleashed will undoubtedly cause some damage. The UDF has so far attempted to distance itself from this communal war of words, ignoring the rants against Aryadan Soukath.

“We will not fall into the trap you are setting. We must unite to secure the UDF candidate’s victory, and we have no time for such rhetoric,” PK Kunhalikutty, a senior IUML leader, told the media.

At the same time, the UDF campaign is designed parallel to minority politics—a trend that has become commonplace in recent years. UDF leaders have already begun highlighting Pinarayi Vijayan’s contentious interview with The Hindu last year, in which he was accused of singling out the Muslim-majority Malappuram district for alleged gold smuggling. (He later denied those claims, a PR agency assumed responsibility, and the newspaper issued an apology.)

Also read: Kerala: M Swaraj named CPI(M) candidate for Nilambur bypoll

Anti-minority sentiments

“They are attempting to inflame minority sentiments, just as they did in Vatakara and Palakkad, by portraying the LDF government and Pinarayi Vijayan as anti-minority. Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala’s blatant twisting of the Chief Minister’s words is proof of that,” said PK Khaleemuddin, CPI(M) leader.

The UDF successfully secured overwhelming minority support in the last Lok Sabha elections with a campaign portraying the CPI(M)-led government as anti-minority and aligned with Hindutva forces.

“People realise that the LDF government’s secular rhetoric is hollow and that, following their Lok Sabha defeat, they’ll pander to the majority community. This became clear when we secured a large victory in the Palakkad by-elections after those elections. This isn’t electioneering—it’s the hard truth,” said Ramesh Chennithala during the campaign.

Meanwhile, CPI (M) politburo member A Vijayaraghavan told The Federal, “The UDF is engaging in blatantly communal politics, seemingly guided by a campaign management agency. They are spreading outright falsehoods and fabricated narratives. This could be their strategy for the upcoming elections also. With religious outfits like the Jamaat-e-Islami backing them, this poses a serious threat to our secular fabric.”

BJP targets M Swaraj

The BJP, which has fielded a Christian candidate, Mohan George, who defected from the UDF, is being criticised for not taking the election seriously and allegedly entering into tactical understandings. Both the UDF and LDF are accusing each other of having a covert nexus with the BJP. On the ground, BJP campaigners have been seen targeting M Swaraj more aggressively than Aryadan Shoukath.

Also read: Nilambur bypoll: Congress fields Aryadan Shoukath

“The CPI(M) candidate speaks for Hamas, not for Hindus or Malayalees. Swaraj’s speeches focus more on Gaza than on Nilambur. They’re trying to import global jihadi politics into Kerala—and he’s even gone so far as to criticise Operation Sindoor,” a BJP campaigner claimed during a public speech.

These attacks, have served to frame the LDF as “appeasers” of radical Islamic sentiments abroad while paradoxically branding them as “pro-Hindu” at home—a dual narrative that is gaining traction in select pockets of Kerala.

Emerging trend

Observers say that Nilambur’s campaign is indicative of a slow but visible trend in Kerala’s electoral politics, where communal identity and religious affiliations are starting to shape political alignments, particularly in constituencies with significant minority populations.

This dynamic was evident in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Vatakara, where the contest between Congress’s Shafi Parambil and CPI(M)’s KK Shailaja was marred by allegations of religious appeasement and cultural betrayal.

Several UDF activists had been booked for running communal and divisive online campaigns, while LDF workers had faced allegations of staging false flag operations to discredit opponents. Similar tones coloured the Palakkad bypolls, where the UDF got the clear advantage of the minorities rallying behind them .

In Nilambur, the rising communal overtones are further complicated by the role of social media. WhatsApp groups and anonymous Facebook pages are flooded with posts casting doubts on candidates’ religious credentials and portraying them as either anti-Muslim or anti-Hindu, depending on the intended audience.

Political analysts argue that while Kerala still retains its secular character at the institutional level, electoral politics is increasingly being influenced by communal calculations.

Whether this strategy will pay off electorally remains to be seen. But what is clear is that Nilambur is no longer just a localised contest between LDF and UDF. It has become a snapshot of Kerala’s shifting political identity, where ideological distinctions are fading and religious polarisation is emerging as an unavoidable tool in electioneering.