Ground Report | Nilambur bypoll race hots up, with last-minute twists

By 3.55 pm, a ripple of excitement turned into a roaring wave as the CM’s cavalcade pulled into the venue. The crowd erupted into thunderous sloganeering. Party workers rushed to guide the Chief Minister to the stage, where leaders of all LDF coalition partners were already seated.

Pinarayi's speech

At 4 pm, the formalities began – a four-minute welcome speech followed by a six-minute presidential address by CPI Rajya Sabha MP, P P Suneer. Then, at 4.10 pm, Pinarayi Vijayan took the mike. His tone was calm, deliberate — a measured political speech, steering clear of theatrics.

He began his speech with a sharp critique—without naming names but clearly hinting at PV Anvar’s betrayal. He emphasised why the LDF deserves to win, highlighting the government’s strong performance and the need for a third consecutive term in office with clear political purpose. He also called out the Hindutva fascist rule at the Centre, pointing to growing insecurity among minorities and criticised Congress for its inability to effectively challenge them.

Midway through his speech, the crowd surged again. M Swaraj, the CPI(M)’s candidate for the Nilambur bypoll, made his way through the throng, greeted by even louder cheers and slogans. The Chief Minister paused briefly, acknowledged Swaraj with a warm welcome from the stage, and resumed his address.

Also read: Kerala: PV Anvar levels serious charges against PWD minister Riyas, threatens to release evidence

By 4.55 PM, Pinarayi Vijayan wound up his speech and stepped off the stage, staying just a few minutes longer before exiting the venue — his presence short, sharp, and politically loaded.

UDF convention

A day after the high-profile LDF convention, the UDF held its own show of strength at the same Kodathippady venue in Nilambur. The arrangements were similar, and the crowd turnout was comparable — perhaps slightly smaller, but no less spirited. The event was attended by Leader of the Opposition VD Satheesan, AICC general secretary KC Venugopal, and other senior leaders from across the UDF spectrum.

While the CPI(M) convention had the advantage of sharp coordination and an disciplined cadre presence, the UDF gathering had its own flavour — less choreographed but visibly charged.

The buzz around the UDF camp was largely fuelled by the popularity of its candidate Aryadan Shoukath, a well-known face in Nilambur and the son of late Congress veteran Aryadan Muhammed. His grassroots connect and familiarity with local voters gave the convention a sense of authenticity and emotional appeal.

The difference lay mainly in style — CPI(M) showcased a tightly run political machine, while the UDF leaned on local warmth and accessible leadership. With both fronts launching their campaigns from the same stage just a day apart, the Nilambur bypoll now looks set for a closely fought contest. It’s clear the race has officially begun — and it’s wide open.

KC Venugopal, the AICC general secretary, launched a fierce attack on the CPI(M) government, accusing it of being anti-minority and covertly pro-BJP, while mocking the Kerala CM and setting a combative tone for the campaign. Meanwhile, Satheesan focused on the anti-incumbency sentiment, expressing confidence that the UDF would return to power with more than 100 seats.

Also read: Nilambur bypoll: P V Anvar announces his candidature

Interestingly, not a single leader mentioned PV Anvar during the speeches, seemingly, a deliberate decision to ignore his presence altogether.

Equations change

A week ago, when the by-election was announced, the UDF was in high spirits, despite some internal disagreements over the candidate selection. Aryadan Shoukath was firm in his demand for the seat, and the leadership had to carefully navigate dissent from district Congress Committee president VS Joy.

To placate him, party leaders reportedly offered Joy a safer seat in next year’s elections or a potential Rajya Sabha nomination.

Initially, the UDF had hoped for the support of rebel leader PV Anvar.

However, that equation changed dramatically once Shoukath was declared the official candidate. Anvar, who shares a strained relationship with Shoukath, had been pushing for VS Joy to be fielded instead, along with a promise of a future safe seat.

Both requests were allegedly turned down by Satheesan, souring the possibility of a tactical alliance. What began as a confident campaign launch for the UDF suddenly became more complex, with Anvar entering the fray as an independent, potentially splitting the anti-incumbency vote and throwing the contest wide open.

Although PV Anvar had joined the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) and filed his nomination as the party’s official candidate, that nomination was rejected on technical grounds. However, Anvar remains in the fray as an independent, having also submitted a second set of nomination papers.

Nilambur constituency

Nilambur has traditionally been a UDF stronghold, with senior Congress leader Aryadan Muhammed representing the constituency six terms in a row from 1987 to 2011. In 2016, he stepped aside to make way for his son, Aryadan Shoukath.

However, the transition didn’t go as planned — Shoukath was defeated by PV Anvar, a Congress rebel who contested as an LDF-backed independent, disrupting the long-standing Congress dominance in the region.

Also read: Kerala: M Swaraj named CPI(M) candidate for Nilambur bypoll

In 2016, Aryadan Shoukath faced internal opposition within the Congress, which led to his defeat by over 11,000 votes. Come 2021, it was VV Prakash who was fielded as the Congress candidate, but party insiders say Aryadan settled scores by allegedly working against Prakash from within.

As a result, PV Anvar managed to scrape through in a tight contest, winning by just 2,700 votes. Tragically, Prakash never got to know the outcome — he passed away just before the counting day.

“In normal circumstances, the UDF would be comfortably ahead in Nilambur — our base here is solid,” said Usman, a local Congress leader.

Further, he added, “But everyone knows why we lost in the past. In 1982, Aryadan Muhammed was defeated by (CPI(M) veteran) TK Hamza, then a Congress rebel. Decades later, history repeated itself when PV Anvar, another rebel, beat Aryadan Shoukath with LDF’s backing. The root cause has always been internal feuds — especially between the Aryadan family and other UDF leaders. This time, though Shoukath is back but the factionalism appears to calm down, we’re more united and confident. But the episode with Anvar could have been avoided. Seeking his support was a mistake — our only real misstep. Apart from that, the tide is in our favour.”

A confident CPI(M)

On the other hand, the CPI(M) feels a renewed surge of confidence after fielding M Swaraj — a state secretariat member and firebrand orator known for his powerful speeches and sharp communication skills.

For years, the party had relied on independents in Nilambur, rarely fielding its own senior leaders. The last time a CPI(M) candidate directly contested the seat was in 2006. With Swaraj in the race, the party believes its grassroots machinery has been reenergized, reclaiming ground it had long left unattended.

“Swaraj can attract votes from unexpected quarters, and that’s why the UDF is seeking support from Anvar,” said KV Hussain, a CPI(M) supporter from Kakkadampoil. “If Swaraj can secure around 75,000 votes and the BJP candidate holds on to at least 75 per cent of their base, history could be made in Nilambur,” he added.

Layer of uncertainty

PV Anvar has become unpredictable in this election, adding a layer of uncertainty to the race. He has filed his nomination and will be contesting as an independent candidate. Initially seen as a fighter against Pinarayi Vijayan’s leadership, Anvar’s position grew unclear after the UDF announced Aryadan Shoukath as their candidate.

Also read: Nilambur bypoll: Congress fields Aryadan Shoukath

Disappointed by this decision, he began openly criticising VD Satheesan, without clearly aligning with any side. At one point, he even alleged that Pinarayi Vijayan was controlling Satheesan, which explained why the LOP had turned against him. His shifting stance and independent run have made it difficult to predict his exact role in the contest.

This unpredictability has unsettled the UDF more than the LDF, complicating their campaign strategies.

“We don’t believe Anvar will make a significant impact this time. We expect him to get around 5,000 votes, which could still be decisive. We are working hard to ensure none of our votes go to Anvar. The positive change is that earlier, due to the Aryadan factor and later Anvar’s influence, we had virtually no party machinery in Nilambur. Now, we have rebuilt the party, and our cadre is confident. We plan to rely on our traditional organisational strengths and methods,” said a district-level CPI(M) leader.

The BJP has fielded a Christian candidate, Mohan George, who recently switched from the Kerala Congress Joseph faction of the UDF. Their goal is to consolidate the significant Christian vote bank in Nilambur’s upper terrain. In 2016, the BJP secured 12,284 votes here, but this number fell to 8,595 in the 2021 election.

Observers noted that the opposition is also trying to stir up identity politics, accusing the CPI(M)-led government of an anti-minority stance and capitalising on it.

In this context, the IUML will have to step up, setting aside its rivalry with the Aryadan family, to challenge a confident LDF — which is fielding its own candidate with a strong pro-minority image.