Nilambur bypoll: Litmus test for Anvar; decisive for UDF too

As the campaign dust settles in Nilambur and the constituency braces for polling on Thursday (June 19), the by-election here has turned into a high-stakes political contest with implications beyond its geographical boundaries.

Towards the fag end of the campaign at the centre of it all stands CPI(M) state secretary MV Govindan, whose remarks — particularly his reference to the party’s alleged association with the RSS in 1977 — have sparked a wave of unease within the Left camp, threatening to dilute the momentum they had painstakingly built over the past weeks.

Also read: Nilambur bypoll campaign takes polarising turn after Welfare Party offers support to UDF

“In unavoidable circumstances, we have even stood with the RSS,” he said in an interview with a Malayalam daily, clearly alluding to the post-Emergency period when the Communists had aligned with the Janata Party. He was justifying the LDF’s current stance against Jamaat-e-Islami, after the interviewer pointed out that the Left had previously collaborated with the Jamaat.

Aryadan Mohammed's influence

LDF campaign’s tone throughout had been assertive, attempting to frame the bypoll as a referendum on the Pinarayi Vijayan government’s development initiatives. But his late comment — meant perhaps as an anecdotal clarification — has been seized upon by opponents, especially in a constituency like Nilambur. Later, he clarified that the party had no political tie-up with the RSS, and his words have been taken out of context to misrepresent.

In a constituency where identity politics play a significant role and every comment is dissected in WhatsApp groups and cyber circles, the remark offered the UDF a last-minute weapon, an opportunity to portray the CPI(M) as leaning towards Hindutva — a narrative they’ve been steadily advancing in recent times. This strategy had yielded significant results in the last general elections and subsequent bypolls, steadily eroding the Left’s support in minority-dominated constituencies, regardless of its consistent stance on the West Asia crisis or its vocal participation in international anti-imperialist and anti-Zionist campaigns, which had an impact on the Muslim voters in the past.

Also read: Nilambur bypoll: CPI(M) slams UDF over Jamaat-e-Islami backed party's support

Nilambur has long been considered a Congress-leaning constituency, albeit with complex social arithmetic. Unlike many other seats in Malappuram district, where the IUML plays a dominant role in mobilising the minority vote, Nilambur has traditionally been a Congress stronghold, shaped largely by the long-standing influence of Aryadan Mohammed — Congress veteran, former power minister, and a towering figure in the region’s public life until his death.

Priyanka Gandhi campaigns

Even though IUML’s organisational strength in Nilambur cannot be discounted, its relative influence is lower here than in other parts of Malappuram. What IUML lacks in vote share, however, it makes up for with its formidable cadre network and disciplined polling machinery, now being deployed in full to aid the UDF’s campaign.

The UDF fielded Aryadan Shoukath, son of Aryadan Mohammed, in what, on the surface, seemed like an emotionally driven attempt to reclaim legacy votes. In reality, however, it was more of a compelled choice, with Shoukath reportedly being insistent to the point of threatening to switch sides if denied the ticket. It was an open secret that he had been in touch with CPI(M) leaders well in advance, exploring the possibility of a defection.

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However, the UDF has thrown its full weight behind the campaign, with leaders ranging from Wayanad MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to IUML president Sadiq Ali Shihab Thangal actively canvassing in the constituency. The only thorn in the side is the lingering resentment between Shoukath and a section of the local party. This stems from allegations that Shoukath had deliberately undermined the campaign of their candidate, the late VV Prakash, in the 2021 election, contributing to his narrow defeat to PV Anvar. Tragically, Prakash passed away before the election result was declared.

On the LDF side, the candidate M Swaraj emerged as an intriguing figure. Known for his ideological commitment and organisational credentials, Swaraj was almost too perfect a candidate — a textbook example of political rectitude, measured articulation, and popular appeal. This meticulousness earned him admiration in many quarters.

His restraint, in contrast to the expected rhetorical flourish, became both his strength and his limitation. The LDF hoped this contrast would be balanced by party machinery and its developmental pitch.

However, his visit to Prakash’s residence towards the fag end of the campaign stirred unease within the Congress camp. Shoukath, for his part, has not relented and has yet to visit the late leader’s family.

“He doesn’t need to go to Prakash’s house or meet his family. Does he visit his own brothers and ask for votes? This is just another manufactured controversy,” said Opposition Leader VD Satheesan.

Development-centric narrative

Interestingly, Shoukath remains the only candidate of the prominent three who has not visited Prakash’s family. Anvar had made the visit soon after filing his nomination, while Prakash’s wife publicly reaffirmed her support for the party following Anvar’s gesture — something she notably did not do after Swaraj’s visit.

Anvar, whose resignation triggered the bypoll, has complicated the contest by rebelling against the LDF and entering the fray as an independent candidate, despite having recently joined the Trinamool Congress (TMC). His presence has effectively turned the contest into a three- or even four-cornered fight, in the media reportage the least. Adding to the mix, the BJP, though appearing reluctant, has fielded a candidate in Mohan George — a former Kerala Congress leader and UDF defector — further fragmenting the race.

Anvar had been eyeing a smooth entry into the UDF, but that hope was dashed due to the firm opposition from Satheesan. This resistance has become a key factor in turning the contest into a closely watched battle — one that could have otherwise been an easy win for the UDF, given the constituency’s political demographics.

One of the most intriguing questions arising from this by-election is whether Anvar can play the role of a spoiler — and, more importantly, whose votes he is likely to dent. While Anvar's personal influence and past visibility in the constituency give him some traction, it’s still unclear whether his independent run will eat into the LDF’s base, where he was once firmly rooted, or siphon off disillusioned UDF voters, especially those upset with Shoukath’s candidature. The answer to this could tilt the final outcome and shape future realignments in Nilambur and beyond.

The LDF campaign opened with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan launching the first major convention on June 1, setting the tone for a development-centric narrative.

However, the terrain soon shifted. Realising the demographic tilt and the UDF’s attempts to consolidate the minority vote, the LDF chose to sharpen the ideological battle, introducing allegations of communal alignment between the UDF and organisations like Jamaat-e-Islami and the Welfare Party. These accusations were meant to drive a wedge in the UDF's coalition, especially to appeal to secular-minded voters and fence-sitters among Hindus and Christians.

Anvar's final battle for survival

From the beginning, the UDF appeared to bank heavily on a clear minority consolidation. The Congress-IUML combination deployed its field machinery aggressively. Community groups were mobilised to play a crucial role in voter engagement, and the campaign messaging was clear: defeat the CPI(M) to protect the minorities from the ‘unholy nexus between them and the Sangh Parivar’.

For the UDF, the challenge was not just about winning a single seat but about reasserting political relevance in a state where the Congress-led front has been struggling for traction. The IUML, meanwhile, viewed Nilambur as an opportunity to demonstrate continued grassroots control.

For the LDF, a win would reinforce the perception that Pinarayi’s government continues to command confidence even in areas historically out of its grasp.

For Anvar, this by-election could well be his final battle for political survival. A victory for either the UDF or the LDF may push him further into the margins, risking political irrelevance and consigning him to the oblivion of public memory.