Nilambur bypoll verdict on June 23; tense wait for parties

The results of the Nilambur constituency in Kerala are seen as a key indicator of the political mood of the 2026 state assembly election in Kerala.

As the results of the assembly bypoll to Nilambur constituency are just hours away, the ruling LDF, opposition UDF and the NDA in Kerala are keeping a close watch on the outcome.

Four-cornered battle

The counting of votes of the by-election in the forest-fringe constituency, which witnessed a fierce four-cornered fight, would begin on Monday.

Also read: Kerala: 13.15 pc voting recorded in first two hours of Nilambur bypoll despite rain

Congress-UDF fielded Aryadan Shoukath, former chairman of the Nilambur Municipality, while the CPI(M)-led LDF backed senior leader and state secretariat member M Swaraj. The BJP-led NDA put up lawyer-politician Mohan George.

The surprise entry of Trinamool Congress state convenor P V Anvar, who had won from the constituency twice as a LDF independent, added intensity and colour to the campaign.

Voter turnout

According to the Election Commission, 75.87 per centage voter turnout was registered during the bypoll in Nilambur despite rains and adverse weather conditions.

Also read: Nilambur bypoll: Litmus test for Anvar; decisive for UDF too

Of the total 2,32,057 voters, 1,74,667 voters cast their votes in various booths and 1402 exercised their franchise through postal ballots, it said.

Projections

Counting arrangements are in full swing, with all sides claiming confidence of a win.

UDF leaders have projected a margin of at least 15,000 votes in favour of Shoukath, citing anti-incumbency wave and support of minority communities.

However, the LDF sources said they expect Swaraj to win by no less than 10,000 votes, pointing to the grassroot level campaign led by ministers and MLAs and rallies addressed by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

BJP-led NDA hinted at underlying political shifts in the constituency which would work in their favour.

Also read: Nilambur by-poll campaign takes polarising turn after Welfare Party offers support to UDF

However, Anvar rejected all claims of the traditional fronts and asserted that he was headed for third consecutive victory with a margin of 25,000 votes in Nilambur seat.

Why by-election?

The by-election was necessitated by the rift between LDF-backed independent MLA P V Anvar and the ruling CPI(M).

As the Pinarayi Vijayan government nears end of its second term in office, the by-election in Nilambur has evolved into a prestigious battle for both the ruling CPI(M)-led LDF and the Congress-headed UDF.

Bypoll campaign issues

Unlike other constituencies, issues ranging from the common man's concerns -- such as human-animal conflicts and welfare pensions -- to international topics like the Israel-Palestine conflict and the Congress's alleged association with Jamaat-e-Islami became subjects of intense debate during the bypoll campaign.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who attended multiple poll rallies in Nilambur and campaigned for party candidate Swaraj, accused the Congress leadership of playing communal cards to win the election.

The Congress-led UDF strongly denied the charges, countering that it was the LDF camp that attempted to garner votes in the Muslim-dominated constituency.

Also read: Nilambur bypoll campaign marks key shift in Kerala's electoral politics

The Opposition also brought up the controversial remarks made by Vijayan in the past in connection with the Muslim-dominated Malappuram district.

The ruling camp, however, attempted to counter the narrative by highlighting the "bribery" remarks made by AICC General Secretary K C Venugopal in connection with the disbursal of welfare pension arrears, made on the sidelines of the bypoll.

(With inputs from agencies)