Nilambur bypoll: High-stakes battle between LDF, UDF after Anvar's exit

Once a UDF bastion, Nilambur has become a hotbed of shifting loyalties and strategic gambits, especially after the resignation of two-time LDF-backed independent MLA PV Anvar. His exit has triggered a high-stakes battle, with the UDF aiming to reclaim lost ground and the LDF fighting to retain its toehold in a traditionally adversarial terrain.

Anvar’s resignation in January did more than create a vacancy – it disrupted long-standing political equations. Once a Congressman, Anvar began his journey towards the Left in 2011, when he contested from the Eranad constituency as an independent with tacit support from the CPI(M), even though the CPI had officially fielded a candidate as part of the LDF. This strategic alignment marked his quiet entry into the Left camp.

Anvar’s fallout with LDF

He went on to contest from Nilambur as an independent in 2016 and 2021, both times with the official backing of the LDF, and defeated Congress candidates Aryadan Shoukath and VV Prakash, respectively. His victories were seen as strategic masterstrokes by the LDF, allowing them to ride on his personal clout while bypassing internal rivalries.

Also read: Kerala: PV Anvar resigns as Nilambur MLA, says won't contest bypoll

However, Anvar’s fallout with the LDF – sparked by a string of allegations against P Sasi, the political secretary to Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, and later against the Chief Minister himself – led to his expulsion from the front. He subsequently aligned with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and continues to serve as its Kerala coordinator.

Anvar playing his cards carefully

Anvar is now playing his cards carefully, seeking to secure a berth for his new political home, the TMC, within the UDF fold. While publicly pledging “unconditional” support to the UDF, Anvar has conditionally backed Malappuram DCC president VS Joy – a Christian leader from the settler-farmer community – on the premise that the TMC will be accommodated in the alliance. This move is widely perceived as a strategic attempt to block his long-time rival, Aryadan Shoukath, from reclaiming the seat. However, Anvar’s overt endorsement of Joy and his criticism of Shoukath risk fracturing the UDF’s vote base rather than uniting it.

“He has chosen to stay away from the media until the UDF reaches a decision on his entry into the alliance and the by-poll candidature”, said one of his aides, when contacted.

Also read: Kerala: Nilambur MLA Anvar cuts ties with ruling LDF, lashes out at CM

“It’s not a viable option for us to induct the TMC as a constituent of the UDF,” a senior UDF leader told The Federal. “There are multiple concerns – from their anti-Congress stance outside Kerala to their lack of a support base within the state. Many other parties are also keen to join the UDF, and accommodating TMC ahead of them wouldn’t be practical. If Anvar is willing to join the Congress individually, we’re open to considering it. In fact, offering him a winnable seat in the next election wouldn’t be out of the question.”

Observers feel Anvar is trying to bargain with his clout in the constituency, as his relevance hinges on the by-poll outcome. A UDF win could expedite his formal re-entry, possibly positioning him for a seat – either Pattambi or Tavanoor – in the 2026 elections. But a UDF loss may seal his political isolation.

Tug-of-war in Congress

The UDF, especially the Congress, is entangled in an internal tug-of-war over candidate selection. Shoukath, son of the late Aryadan Muhammed, has grassroots appeal and the legacy factor working in his favour. On the other side is Joy, the youngest DCC president in Kerala and a rising star backed by senior leader AP Anil Kumar and Anvar.

The split, however, is threatening to widen. Shoukath’s camp fears being sidelined by what they see as “outsourced” lobbying by Anvar. Some in the Congress fear that denying Shoukath a ticket may push him toward the LDF, where he could attract secular and minority votes, further destabilising the UDF’s chances in the region.

Also read: Kerala: Anvar puts LDF govt in a spot; meets CPI(M) secretary to hand over complaint

UDF leaders like KC Venugopal and VD Satheesan are attempting to manage the fallout, stressing that Anvar’s support is welcome but not decisive.

“The Congress has a system, and that system will decide the candidate. We have more than one deserving candidate and the party will decide taking into consideration all the factors. The CPI(M) is looking for someone rebelling from our fold, which is not going to happen. They have not learned anything from the drubbing they got in Palakkad,” Satheesan stated – an assertion of internal autonomy amid external pressures.

Nilambur’s demographic complexity

Nilambur is an exemplar of Kerala’s demographic complexity. The constituency includes a sizeable Muslim population, largely loyal to the IUML, and a substantial Christian settler-farmer community in the ecologically sensitive hilly tracts. Wildlife conflict, particularly man-animal incidents, is a burning issue for these communities.

Anvar’s backing of Joy is aimed at consolidating Christian votes, which could be decisive in a tight race. Joy, a Mar Thoma Christian, also has support among Dalit and Adivasi communities due to his visibility in local agitations.

Meanwhile, Shoukath is trying to expand his appeal beyond traditional League-aligned Muslims to secular Hindu voters, leveraging his father’s legacy of inclusive politics.

Also read: After Hema panel report, MLA Anvar's outrage shakes up Pinarayi govt

Aryadan Muhammed, a towering Congress figure, represented Nilambur for over three decades, at times contesting under both the UDF and LDF banners. He had aligned with the LDF during the period when AK Antony, part of the Devaraj Urs faction, broke away from the Indira Gandhi-led Congress in the 1970s. His reputation for uprightness, secular credentials, and commitment to development made him one of the most respected Congress figures in Kerala.

LDF’s search for strong candidate

With Anvar no longer in the picture, the LDF now faces the task of fielding a strong party candidate, moving away from its previous strategy of backing independents to split the UDF vote.

“We don’t believe Anvar poses the kind of threat he claims to. There may be minor ripples locally, but our party machinery is strong in Nilambur and will withstand it. It’s worth noting that no leaders followed Anvar when he left the LDF — unlike in 2011, when M Ali, another Left-backed independent, defected to the IUML and took supporters with him. Anvar, on the other hand, is likely to cut a sorry figure after the elections,” said PK Khaleemuddin, CPI(M) district secretariat member.

Also read: Never intentionally said will leave LDF, was a slip of tongue: P V Anvar

The CPI(M) is reportedly considering several names, including former footballer U Sharaf Ali, who captained the Indian national team. Also in the running is 26-year-old P Shabeer, a dynamic leader from the DYFI who gained prominence for his role in the rescue operations during the Wayanad floods. Sources suggest that the possibility of Shoukath switching sides has not been entirely ruled out, despite the Congress leader pulling out all the stops to secure a UDF nomination.

The Left’s campaign will likely focus on continuity, development projects, and framing Anvar’s exit as “betrayal”. But without a recognisable mass face, the LDF may struggle to match the emotional resonance of the Aryadan brand or the machinery of the Congress-IUML combine.

Nilambur crucial for LDF

Since 2019, the LDF has largely managed to retain its sitting seats in by-elections. The last time it lost a sitting seat in a bypoll was in 2019, when Congress’s Shanimol Usman defeated DYFI leader Manu C Pulikkan following AM Arif’s election to Parliament. However, the setback in Aroor did not significantly dent the LDF’s political standing, as it managed to wrest two UDF-held seats in the same round of by-elections that year.

Moreover, the LDF reclaimed Aroor in the 2021 Assembly elections, when singer-turned-politician Daleema of CPI(M) defeated Shanimol Usman. In 2024, the LDF successfully defended Chelakkara, the only one of its sitting seats to face a by-election that year.

Meanwhile, the UDF has registered strong bypoll victories in Thrikkakara, Puthuppally, and Palakkad with improved margins – signalling a resurgence in its fortunes, bolstered in part by Rahul Gandhi’s increased campaigning in Kerala.

Also read: Kerala: MLA P V Anvar takes over as state coordinator of Trinamool Congress

Nilambur, with its unique blend of personal rivalries and demographic diversity, may break this pattern either way. A loss could dent Chief Minister Vijayan’s aura of invincibility and further consolidate anti-incumbency ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections.